Daryl Carter Ante-Post Tips: Take a leap of faith with John in Ebor

The first place to start is the blue ribboned event, the 15:35 Ebor Handicap, where we have 48 entries for Britain's richest handicap.

York will expect a small amount of rain on Tuesday, but the forecast is drying up by the hour, according to the Met Office, so expect it to be the usual quick ground after the parched summer.

Ebor top weights to defect?

The field is headed by top-weight Hamish 15.014/1, rated 113 (will run off 110, as will any horse rated higher than this ceiling), meaning you're highly unlikely to get into the race if you're rated below 100. Only eight horses have run in this handicap, rated below 100 since 2014 - just to give a sense of how competitive it is every year!

I would hold fire if you like Hamish - and who wouldn't with his two-for-two course record at York? Maureen Haggas said immediately after his return victory at Chester that if it's good to firm, he won't be going anywhere, and you will recall he missed this race last term when the going was described as good.

One of those double entered this week is Goodwood Cup fourth Coltrane 15.014/1, who could have Melbourne Cup aspirations later this season and has a Friday entry at York in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup. Connections will take confidence from his Goodwood run and the fact that he was an excellent winner of the Melrose Handicap on this card two years ago. It's a high possibility they will want another crack at Stradivarius.

Quickthorn 21.020/1 was an excellent second in this contest last year and, along with Enemy 21.020/1, could join the above-mentioned in the Lonsdale Cup on Friday.

Take a leap of faith

I have no qualms with Earl Of Tyrone 8.07/1 at the head of the market, although I do think a very strongly run race may find him out.

Every running of this race on good or better ground since 2015 has recorded a faster time than the Racing Post standard, which could be a positive sign for John Leaper 15.014/1, who is desperate for a strongly run affair.

He is firmly on the radar for this after two good efforts here this term, and a case can be made that he simply wants a flat track. He scored at Newmarket early in his career but made heavy weather of what was supposed to be a straightforward prep run for the fancied Derby runner. He failed to handle Epsom in the Derby and doesn't have the pace to be effective over 1m4f, so his latest run at Goodwood can be easily forgiven.

This looks to be his optimum trip, and a strong pace will see him go well. His run style is a concern, given he is usually held up and takes time to warm to his task under pressure. Still, he is on the radar and with three ahead of him in the betting possible defects from the race. He could be half the price on Saturday with this his sole entry, and I would rather have him in the book at his double-figure odds rather than the likely single-figure one on Saturday.

No standout in the City Of York

The 15:00 City Of York Stakes is usually a race I like to get stuck into, but there is no standout candidate for me this year. I thought Sandrine 4.03/1 was flattered by her Goodwood win, and she will be an opposable favourite. A quick turnaround for Jumby 7.06/1 is a question after his Hungerford Stakes win at Newbury. Still, the main market principals failed to fire at Newbury, so it may be worth treading with caution, especially at his defensive odds.

Art Power 13.012/1, Rohaan 9.08/1 and Brad The Brief 9.08/1 all step up in trip, and while Rohaan would be of most interest, he is hardly likely to get the pace collapse he craves. Al Suhail 7.06/1 is about as trustworthy as Elvis Presley's manager Tom Parker - good film give it a watch! While Pogo 11.010/1 seems to have done his racing this term.

I am pretty sure there is a bet here, and if there is, it's Kinross 5.59/2 who can have his Goodwood Lennox Stakes upgraded significantly. He looked to have the speed advantage over Sacred 4.57/2 despite having to switch and squeeze up the rail. He is a class act on the day, but whether he wants rattling quick ground remains to be seen. After all that, I've left it alone!

Melrose looks stacked full of potential.

William Haggas has entered a strong hand in the 14:25 Melrose Handicap on Saturday with his well-handicapped and improving pair Soulcombe 8.07/1 and Post Impressionist 17.016/1.

Soulcombe would be the favoured of the two with that lowly handicap rating of just 83 by his name and catching the eye at Goodwood doing best of those from off the pace at the rear of the field. He is a rapid improver and will appreciate this long home straight.

The same can be said for his stable mate Post Impressionist who was unsuited by Chester last time and was drawn in the car park at Royal Ascot. We haven't seen the best of him!

There are stacks of quality in this field, even if only a handful stand their ground.

Charlie Appleby has a couple of interesting runners, notably the unexposed brother to Ghaiyyath, Al Nafir 7.06/1. He is a half-brother to four middle-distance winners, and he will take a big step up in trip on this handicap debut. He will have the stamina to prove, but there were lots to like about his latest run at Newmarket.

The lucky last is the hottest sprint of the season

Usually, when there's an eye-catcher from off the pace, they are towards the top of the market on their next outing. However, that's not the case with Silver Samurai 15.014/1 in the 16:10 Constantine Handicap, but it's not hard to see why - it's highly competitive.

I was tempted to have a bet, but this is one of the strongest sprint contests I have seen this season, so it's another waiting game, I am afraid.

I will be back with a tipping column for York Day one on Tuesday afternoon.