Cheltenham Festival Focus: The Thyme has finally come for his Cheltenham glory

• A weekly round up of action
• How good is American Mike?
• Daryl is strong on a Brown Advisory Betfair 16/1 BOOST selection!

Weekly round-up

Last Sunday at Carlisle, Iron Bridge put in a useful staying performance to remain unbeaten on his chase debut, and that looks like a race to follow. He won in good style there, but he was slower (as would be expected) than the following Colin Parker Listed winner overall and three out to the line. He benefitted from being held up off the pace as the field matched the first circuit of the Listed proceeding contest.

Still, he looks ahead of the handicapper, and it will be interesting to see which route they take - he is 40/1 for the Brown Advisory, which is certainly a little ambitious at this time.

Beauport won the 2m4f Colin Parker Intermediate Listed Chase on heavy ground. It was an excellent performance considering he was on the sharp end of a frantic gallop in conditions, and he clocked a useful time on this chase debut which bodes well for the rest of the season with forthcoming improvement.

Plenty gave plaudits to Millers Bank, who chased him home in second under a big weight, but he benefitted from his racing position off the pace. This was an excellent debut, and Beauport maintained a strong gallop and has been cut into 16/1 for the Brown Advisory Chase at the Festival, and that looks very fair on this performance - it was very striking.

The 2021 Ballymore Novice Hurdle fourth Bear Ghylls shaped with promise on this first start for 592 days, and there's surely more to come from him this term over the larger obstacles, and I wouldn't be writing him off yet, and he is 33/1 top-price with Betfair for the same race.

Many people were disappointed to see Thedevilscoachman running in a Beginners Chase at Galway last Sunday. I, along with others, thought he looked good value for the Stayers Hurdle on the back of an excellent Navan victory in February in which he had the subsequent Coral Cup winner well behind.

Still, he made a positive start returning to the larger obstacles despite some sticky mistakes over his fences -that was the reason connections drew stumps chasing last term. It was no more than a modest race he won, beating chasing debutants Churchstonewarrior, rated 135 over hurdles, and Grandero Bello, rated 123, but he had a bit in hand.

It's important to remember that he is a second-season Novice, and experience at this time in the season counts for plenty. He is a 20/1 chance with the Betfair Sportsbook for the Brown Advisory, but his jumping will need to improve significantly to feature, and the lack of Cheltenham experience is off-putting. Still, he is only six, and there is surely more to come, and the staying chase division is wide open, so he is worth monitoring.

Grade 1 win over hurdles
Winning chase debut

An impeccable round of jumping, just how good will STAGE STAR be? pic.twitter.com/KBwzKjN8D5

-- The Jockey Club (@TheJockeyClub) November 1, 2022

At Warwick on Tuesday, Stage Star delivered an almost foot-perfect chase debut display but for a sticky error four from home, but he put to bed a useful-looking field with ease. The race was run at a modest tempo as Stage Star led from pillar to post, and he may have been slightly flattered by the 13-length winning margin as his main market rival and the strong travelling West Cork lost plenty of ground jumping out to the right.

Still, Harry Cobden barely moved on the former Challow Hurdle winner, and he powered clear from the back of the last. It was an eye-popping way to finish his race, clocking easily the fastest closing sectional of the day. He should learn plenty from that. Harry Cobden let him run down the final flight but clearly knew what he had in the tank.

He is exciting, and his owners, the Owners Group, will surely want a Cheltenham Festival runner this season (he ran in the Ballymore last term), and he is now 20/1 top price with Betfair for the Turners Novices' Chase. I want to see him again, but I am very tempted.

On Thursday at Newbury, Champagne Court won the Pertemps Qualifier, but its hard to see any of these featuring in the main event in March.

What did American Mike actually achieve?

The Down Royal card on Friday and Saturday is where Gordon Elliott likes to start his potential Cheltenham Festival hopes. He sent out a strong team, including Champion Bumper second American Mike, who scored in good style over 2m6f in the opening race on the card.

This is a race that Gordon Elliott had won six of the last seven years and now seven of the last eight. Of his previous runners in the race, only Fury Road (Albert Bartlett) and Hollow Games (Martin Pipe) went on to the Cheltenham Festival.

Still, Farouk D'Alene beat the subsequent Albert Bartlett winner at Limerick last Christmas, and this is likely where American Mike will go over this period. Limerick tends to be a soft touch away from the main action at this time, so he will likely shorten from his already 6/1 for the Albert Bartlett - so if you like him, I would take the price now.

He was given a soft lead through the early part of the race before solid yardstick Letsbeclearaboutit took over the lead heading down the back on the second circuit. He tended to jump slightly right and slightly left at times, but he was slow over his hurdles and left plenty of air (which bodes well for a chasing campaign next term). He was scrappy when asked under pressure, but he got the job done and should learn plenty from this.

The form is hard to weigh up. The 40/1 third, Cocoplum, stayed with them until three-out, which highlights the steadily run affair but the well-beaten runner-up, although making his hurdling debut, has some very substantial bumper form. While I don't want to say this is strong form, it's certainly not to be dismissed.

Scrap those Supreme and Ballymore slips, it's surely the Bartlett

The race was run at a very steady tempo, though, and the final circuit was only 2.88 lengths quicker than the yards 97-rated handicap winner on the card, who had run over 3m (1.5f further). American Mike was six lengths slower than Pied Piper, who won over 2m (but they also went very slow).

In contrast, the Mares Novice Hurdle winner Magical Zoe who won over 2m1f, was 27 lengths faster than American Mike, 20 lengths faster than Pied Piper and 30 lengths faster than the handicap winner over 3m.

But that's not to be misconstrued! Magical Zoe was held up in her race, suggesting an upgrade of the runner-up and the third who made all of the running. Magical Zoe finished three out to the line ten lengths slower than American Mike, suggesting the second and third horses in that race did too much too soon. She was a length slower from the back of the last to the line suggesting the horses ahead of her were slowing down rather than her quickening. I have that race rated around 120 - 125, and Magical Zoe will be significantly over-bet next time.

Concerning American Mike, we learnt a staying trip would almost certainly be his bag, so scrap those Supreme Novice and Ballymore slips. He produced nothing of significant note here, but he does have that excellent Champion Bumper second to his name, so he has proven he can live with a championship pace to a degree.

He is very promising indeed and is a potential future Gold Cup horse.

Potter may need to go right-handed track to be at his mighty best

Mighty Potter was the other significant runner on the Down Royal Card on Friday for Gordon Elliott. A Grade 1 winning hurdler who fluffed his lines at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novice last season but got back on track at Punchestown when landing a soft end-of-season contest in which Sir Gerhard performed poorly for the second consecutive year.

He was allowed his own way out in front in the early stages with stablemate Mars Harper under Davy Russell sitting off the pace, likely under instruction from the trainer to allow the first string to warm to his task. He made a blunder at the first when failing to come up for Jack Kennedy and hit the same fence (third last) pretty hard on the final circuit. He was good under pressure and warmed to his jumping task, and he is certainly built for the larger obstacles with his engine, under no question.

It was very noticeable that he was jumping slightly to his right, and he did hang that way when given a flick up the home straight inside the final furlong.

It may prove no coincidence that five of his seven starts have come at Punchestown, Down Royal and Fairyhouse - all right-handed tracks.

He did win a Grade 1 at Leopardstown, but he was buried away on the inside and only pulled out in the clear at the final hurdle, where he jumped slightly right. The larger obstacles could heighten this trait, and while he has abundant talent, he is still raw.

When approaching the final flight on this chase debut, his head carriage was a red flag. He hung his head to the left, almost pulling away from the fence, and he could benefit from cheek-pieces in the future. However, that could be greenness and inexperience, and he is one to monitor closely next time - hopefully on a left-handed track.

He will likely follow the route of Envoi Allen and Samcro, who landed this race before heading to the Turner's Novices Chase at Cheltenham, for which he is an 8/1 chance. Still, I suspect a waiting game here will prove significant.

Short-term one to watch

Bonnie Bresil travelled like a well-handicapped horse on her handicap debut at Exeter on Friday at 13:50. She is unexposed over staying trips and should benefit from the run.

At Exeter, Greaneteen won the Haldon Gold Cup by making all of the running, and while it was an excellent weight-carrying performance, the race in behind fell apart. Third Time Lucki was travelling well before a big blunder at the fourth last stopped him in his tracks, and War Lord never gave his running. The reliable nine-year-old Dolos never left the second position and was beaten seven lengths. It was a good performance by Greaneteen, but stiffer tasks await, and his Champion Chase price is now 16/1.

Galvin, Conflated and Envoi have no chance in a Gold Cup

On Saturday at Down Royal, Envoi Allen bounced back to form and seemingly recorded a career-best to retain his unbeaten record at this venue. This was a breakthrough at Grade 1 success open company to land the 3m Champion Chase. The jury should still be out regarding stamina, though, and the 25/1 for the Gold Cup doesn't appeal.

The overall time was exactly four lengths slower than the handicap chase later on the card, which was won by the 120-rated Final Orders, who beat Archies Charm (118) by 3/4 of a length.

This was a poor effort from Galvin, who now looks to be going the wrong way, and Conflated, who would have no chance of staying the Gold Cup trip despite winning the Irish equivalent (very slowly run and dictated the pace). The pair are 40/1 for the race in March, but Conflated should be considered for the Ryanair, for which he is 20/1.

At Wincanton on Saturday, it was a dissapointment for McFabulous backers as he pulled up but was led back to the paddock and looked ok. His rider thought the track was too slippery, so they put sand down on the track to dry the grass on the bends.

Knappers Hill won the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle and is improving fast, but he may be one for Aintree for all Cheltenham would suit if they could get him into a Handicap. Frodon continued a good weekend for Paul Nicholls by winning the Badger Beer Handicap with a good front-running performance, but it would be highly unlikely to see him at the festival.

Thyme Hill to finally get his Cheltenham Festival victory

"He'll be a bit more streetwise next time."@PJHobbs1 tells Stewart Machin that he "will work back" from the #CheltenhamFestival with Thyme Hill, who won so well on his chasing bow @ExeterRaces pic.twitter.com/fWvQ9Gcocx

-- Racing TV (@RacingTV) November 4, 2022

No nine-year-old winner of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase has existed since 1992 when Miinehoma scored, Cross Master in 1986, and Mountain Prince in 1948 make up the three horses aged nine to win this contest. In the last ten years, only two horses aged nine have tried to win this race - Whisper was beaten a nose in 2017 in the famous Might Bite race and Call The Police of Willie Mullins' was third ( a 20/1 chance rated 140 over hurdles).

Whisper and Thyme Hill 12/1 have plenty in common. Both had three seasons over hurdles and were rated 160 plus. The similarities continue with both running in the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle and winning on their chase debut. There's little to this story other than Whisper being the only other nine-year-old to have this profile of a horse attempting to win this race.

Thyme Hill made a splendid start over fences at Exeter this weekend when quickly brushing aside his two inferior rivals. That's not the case for this horse, as he damn well should have been a 1/10 chance rather than 1/2. But it was a good opportunity to see him jump, and he clearly has the ability over the larger obstacles.

He impressed me with how quickly he got not only from A-B but away from his fences on the landing side. He made one or two niggle errors that can be ironed out, but he quickly put the race to bed when asked. His jumping under pressure, in particular, was eye-catching down the back, and Phillip Hobbs has now said that they will work back from the Cheltenham Festival.

The 3m Novice Hurdle division has been weak in the past couple of years, and subsequently, that theme tends to roll on into the Novice Chase division over this distance.

In 2021 the Albert Bartlett was a poor race, and the reason I advised Vanillier at 40/1 and 14/1 on the day was that no horse had run an RPR above 145 other than Farouk D'Alene, who was going to miss the festival through injury.

That rolled into the Brown Advisory last term when I advised on the Cheltenham Roarcast L'Homme Presse at 33/1 - a horse outside the previous Cheltenham Albert Bartlett crop of the prior year. Ahoy Senor, who finished second in last year's Brown Advisory, hadn't come from the Cheltenham Festival Novice crop either.

Last year's Albert Bartlett is shaping up the exact same way. The Nice Guy, who was a clear winner (as Vanillier was) at 18/1, is out through injury and the runner-up Minella Cocooner by default, is the current 7/1 favourite for the Brown Advisory, but he is yet to jump a fence. He sets the standard for the Novices, but behind him, it's much of a muchness.

The 142-rated Bardenstown Lad was third in last year's Albert Bartlett, just four lengths behind Minella Cocooner, and he has since been well beaten on his chase debut at Listowel.

It must be remembered that Paul Townend did jump off Minella Cocooner at Leopardstown in favour of Bron before getting back on in the Albert Bartlett, which would suggest there was no stand-out in the pecking order at Clousutton.

Many in this market need to improve by 20 pounds at least on their hurdle rating to be competitive in this contest which usually produces 160 plus rated horses. The lowest RPR recorded in the Brown Advisory in the last 10 years was 162.

If Thyme Hill was to meet the market leader Minella Cocooner over hurdles in a handicap, he would be giving him 14lbs - yes I know this is not over hurdles. Thyme Hill has only had nine more racecourse starts than Minella Cocooner but is twice a Grade 1 winner and thrice a Grade 2 winner. There could be plenty of progression to come from Willie Mullins' chaser, but he is also not certain to go to this contest either with the Turners an acceptable option.

Thyme Hill also goes extremely well at Cheltenham. In his five starts here, he has finished outside of the top three once, and that was when he was arguably unlucky not to win his Albert Bartlett when denied a clear run. On the face of it, he is the best horse in this race, and this is his only target at the Cheltenham Festival, all being well during the season. He could now finally get that illusive victory after a runner-up effort in the Stayers Hurdle last season, an Albert Bartlett fourth, and a Champion bumper third.

He is ground versatile and open to the same improvement as his younger rivals but with a thick exterior of experience. His chase debut was no more than a clarification that he can jump fences, and he can, so he the others must raise their game to challenge him.

At 12/1 or bigger he looks an excellent each-way play for this race after his debut chase effort was brushed over because it wasn't flashy.

Betfair have boosted Thyme Hill win only price to 16/1 for followers and you can find this under the Specials Tab here.