Cheltenham Festival Focus: Mullins could have another plate plot up his sleeve

• Something doesn't add up with impressive Juvenile Jupiter

• Conflated still has no chance in the Gold Cup

• Paisley over-priced and tempting in Stayer's market?

• 16/1 handicap chaser to back

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Disaster struck last week when we sadly lost our Brown Advisory selection Three Stripe Life in the Nevills Hotel Novice Chase at Leopardstown on 29th December. A horse with tremendous promise.

We pick up mainly the action from Leopardstown and Limerick, and the fact that this column has focused primarily on Ireland this season should give you a good indication of how the festival may turn out.

Form lines, beautiful Novice form lines...

Deep Cove won the Savills Maiden Hurdle on 28th December at Leopardstown - a race won by some useful yardsticks in the past - but it's not the winner that I am interested in, more so the form lines represented in the race.

Grangeclare West's form was done no harm by the close-up third Firm Footings (beaten 13 lengths by Grangeclare West), who was short of room against the rail on the run-in. Lot Of Joy finished second and had previously been unlucky not to beat Inothewayurthinkin at Cork. The winner, Deep Cove, gave a good boost to Inthepocket's form through collateral lines with Absolute Notions. The time was good compared to the following handicap on the card, which suggests these three could be rated in the low 130s range.

It's a tangled web of form, but they all tie in at some point, and given those three pulled six lengths clear from their rivals in the Savills Hurdle, it would be good odds that we are on the right track with the likes of Inothewayurthinking, Inthepocket and Grangeclare West as the middle distance Irish Novices to follow.

Maxxum given an astonishing RPR of 157 in the Pertemps Qualifier

Gordon Elliott's Maxxum cruised to victory in what usually turns out to be a very hot Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown. Still, you are usually looking for those that finish fifth or sixth. With the new rules, only the top four qualify this season, but connections needed a win to go up in the weights for the race in March, for which his demolition job has now sent him into 4/1 favouritism.

The Racing Post Handicapper gave him a 157 for his performance - that's higher than any other first-time Cheltenham Festival Pertemps Final winner has recorded on the way to Cheltenham by a significant margin.

The performance was eye-popping as it was previously at Navan, and a 17 lb rise in the weights was not enough to stop him here off of an official rating of 120.

The Grade 1 Jack De Bromhead Hurdle won by Home By The Lee was a good comparative race over the same course and distance, and from the first hurdle to the finishing line, this is the times each winner recorded.

Maxxum = 5.41.94
Home By The Lee = 5.42.85

Interestingly, the Grade 1 winner only made up the time on Maxxum from three out to the finish when the handicap winner came home clear under no pressure. Still, Home By The Lee was only around 2.5 lengths quicker from three out to the finish than Maxxum, but the latter was cantering to the last while the Grade 1 winner was at full stretch.

When we look at how Maxxum compared to the 2m4f Novice Hurdle, given a good mention above, won by Deep Cove, Maxxum's final circuit time was about five lengths slower, but that contest again made up the ground from the back of the last to the line in a three-way driving finish.

This was an exceptional performance from Maxxum, and we can try to predict what the handicapper will do (plus British tax), but it might not matter because we could be looking at a Grade 1 horse in the making.

What rating can we expect for Cheltenham?

For experimental purposes, let's attempt to guess his British handicap rating. Maxxum won this off of a rating of 120 by an official distance of 16 lengths (more like 13 lengths on the clock), and the Irish handicapper has given him an 18 lbs rise to 138. Over the last couple of years, the British tax has averaged around four to five pounds, but given his RPR of 157, we could be looking at more like seven or eight. My educated guess is he could be running off of a maximum rating of 147, with 145 more likely. We will know more when Gordon enters his handicappers in January at Warwick, but he might appear on this list before then!

The highest RPR recorded in the last ten years of a Pertemps winner is 164 (Sire Du Berlais 2020 off 152). Still, Maxxum could easily prove to be a Graded performer next season competing in the Stayers Hurdle - hell on this performance and the state of the staying division he could run in it this year which his 66/1 is tempting. Still, he is only six years old, and if he is good enough to run in the Stayers Hurdle, then he should be a good thing for the Pertemps off 145.

Mrs Milner (4th), Sire Du Berlais (9th & 6th), Presenting Percy (5th) and Mall Dini (4th) all ran in this Leopardstown Handicap Qualifier and Gordon Elliot has a tremendous record in this event. This year's new format means it's harder to get into the race. Still, it also means that around 25% of the field will have been winners of the Pertemps Qualifiers, so the poor statistic of Pertemps Qualifier winners in this event will surely be inconsequential.

He could easily turn into one of the bankers of the meeting, but it's hard to see him much shorter than his current 4/1, likely because of the presence of the well-fancied Shoot First 5/1. There's little else in it, though, at this stage.

Stayers Hurdle conundrum makes me seriously consider Paisley

Home By The Lee won the Grade 1 Jack De Bromhead Hurdle over 3m, but as mentioned above, the comparison with the handicap wouldn't send you with a bag of cash to scurry to back him for the Stayers Hurdle in March, for which he is now 6/1. That race as a whole needs to be looked at negatively. Flooring Porter continues to head the market at 5/1, with Betfair being defensive. Still, he has now run two RPRs in the 150s for the first time since October 2020, and he would hardly fill you with confidence - even if connections are downplaying their hand for a bigger price.

The Stayers Hurdle usually goes to younger legs despite plenty of repeat winners over the years, and plenty of people will be lured in by Ashdale Bob 12/1, but he still needs to enhance his form and didn't here.

Home By The Lee well held Ashdale Bob in the Lismullen Hurdle on return at Navan, and he finished behind that same rival last January in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran. I am of a similar opinion of Home By The Lee. He has yet to improve on the clock, but Flooring Porter has run well below his peak of last term, while Bob Olinger is clearly a non-stayer despite the market continuing to back him! The form looks average at best.

The market is also filled with horses that won't run in this contest. Paisley Park is now 11, and he is better than ever this season. His 14/1 price tag looks ever more appealing, and if you don't want to get stung with the NRNB price, then it's a no-brainer to take it now!

I have been through this market repeatedly, and I still can't understand why he is such a big price. I can't find three horses that will finish ahead of him, and while age is a concern, there is nothing other than maybe Brandy Love or Meet And Greet that can win this in the right age bracket. The latter has a handicap mark of 142, so he could easily be looking at alternative arrangements, as well as Brandy Love, who is untried beyond 2m4f. Five of the last six winners aged older than nine were previous Cheltenham Festival winners, but you would have to go back a long way to find a double-figure aged horse, but I doubt many years have been as wide open as this.

Conflated and Kemboy set another dawdle gallop

Conflated was cut into 12/1 for the Gold Cup after being well positioned in another slowly run three-mile race when landing the Savills Chase. The form is not strong at all, and I couldn't have him for a Cheltenham Gold Cup. The same goes for any of those that run in that contest. Galoping Des Champs looks like an even better price after that at 13/8.

On the same card, Gentlemansgame returned to action with a 2m5f Novice Chase win on his chasing debut. I tipped him for that race to beat the odds on I Am Maximus, but I was never entirely comfortable watching him. He has a race-ending mistake in him, and his 12/1 for the Brown Advisory makes little appeal.

Allegorie De Vassy is some weapon!

Allegorie De Vassy looks like a very promising horse, indeed. She made her chase debut at Limerick on 28th December and effortlessly cleared away from her admittedly inferior rivals. She jumped beautifully for the most part, but the way she travelled through her contest caught the eye. She is enthusiastic in her racing and was eager to get on with the job. Always in her jockey's hands, she made a couple of niggly errors, but it was a pleasure to watch. She will be very hard to beat in March if continuing on this path and is now 9/4 for the Mares Chase. She could be odds-on come the day.

At Leopardstown on 29th December, Good Land made an impressive second start over hurdles. He won with any amount in hand in a slightly quicker time than Shewearsitwell, who slammed the overrated Queens Brook in the 2m4f Grade 3 Mares Hurdle. Both races had two flights omitted. Still, the handicap on the card later on won by Green Glory came out best on the speed figures, and he was rated 111, so both are best watched for now.

Gaillard Du Mesnil bolstered his claims of National Hunt success with a smooth win in the Nevills Hotel Novices Chase. That was the first time he had got his head in front over the larger obstacles, but he had kept very warm company in six starts prior. He looks like a shoo-in for the festival and is now 6/4 for the National Hunt Chase.

State Man proved he is Willie Mullin's number one Champion Hurdle contender after seeing off stablemates Vauban and Sharjah. The latter is on the downgrade, and Honeysuckle's form looks to be falling apart in front of our eyes especially given Epatante was destroyed for a second time at Kempton by Constitution Hill. State Man looks like a very respectable challenger to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle, and he is now 4/1 and 4/6 in the Without market. Vauban 8/1 was certainly not disgraced and will improve for the outing, although he was well-supported.

On New Year's Eve, Saint Sam scored on his return to Hurdles at Limerick in good style and is now a 33/1 chance for the Stayers Hurdle. He needs to learn to settle - suspect stamina doesn't win Stayers Hurdles, although he is young and improving, which is more than you can say for most in that division.

Something doesn't add up with Jupiter Du Guite's conquest at Newbury

Good horses, Cheltenham Festival Novice winners and top-class horses can go through any ground - they may not be as impressive, but they get the job done. Jet Powered looked laboured when asked for an effort as his bubble burst at Newbury, but he wasn't straightforward on debut, albeit far better than he was here. There's little doubt that he is a good horse, and something may have been a miss, but he is not a Supreme horse - a million miles from it on this performance, and Facile Vega's price has contracted as a result into 8/11.

After this demolition job, the Juvenile winner Jupiter Du Guite is now 9/1 for the Triumph Hurdle for Gary Moore. It's hard to get a handle on what he achieved on the clock with the deteriorating ground throughout the day, but something doesn't look right solely compared to the first race on the card.

Jupiter Du Gite and Midnight Ginger (rated 118) were bang on par with their sectionals from the first hurdle until the third last.

At the third last, Midnight Ginger was joined by three other rivals as she lost around one length on Jupiter Du Gite and then was four lengths behind at the second last before falling a further eight lengths behind at the line.

Still, half of the field of Jupiter Du Gite's race was off the bridle on the turn for home, and he had gone no quicker than the proceeding mares race. That tells me that the race as a whole was a poor one.

The two mares in second and third behind Midnight Ginger, rated 114 and 111, would have finished ahead of the rest of Jupiter Du Gite's rivals. Strange, and this could be significantly overrated next time or he could be a potential superstar.

All roads lead to the Ballymore for Hermes Allen

Hermes Allen destroyed a promising field of Novice Hurdlers when landing the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle for Paul Nicholls, who has now won this contest for the last three years. He is just very hard to knock. He has proven himself on a quicker surface at Cheltenham and now on a deep surface at Newbury. He did things the hard way here as Harry Cobden hugged the inside rail on the worst of the ground. While we shouldn't compare times across this day, it's interesting that his overall was 20 lengths quicker than the 123-rated handicap winner Blenkinsop who won by a comfortable four lengths.

He is in my book as a 147-rated hurdler at this time, but he is continuing to improve and is probably a worthy Ballymore favourite at 3/1 for now and heads straight to the festival. The runner-up, You Wear It Well, is a very fair 20/1 for the Mares Novice Hurdle.

The Wacker is the Real deal

The performance that blew me away but also confused me this week was the Real Wacker's Dipper Novices Chase victory at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.

He jumped very soundly - never looked like he would make a mistake - and had Monmiral chasing his tail for the entire contest. It was an excellent performance, and the form looks solid. Monmiral had previously chased home Jonbon at Warwick, although no match for that one, he wasn't disgraced, and Thunder Rock is a horse firmly on the upgrade arriving on the back of two victories over fences defending an unbeaten record. You could perhaps argue the latter didn't jump as well as he could but the sectionals against the ultra-reliable handicap on the card won by Midnight River read very well.

The Real Wacker recorded an overall first-fence-to-finish line time more than 17 lengths quicker than Midnight River.

The early pace set was slower than compared to the handicap. Patrick Neville's runner would have been last jumping the fifth fence behind Jacamar, but from the eighth fence to the 12th, he would have been leading that field, and his advantage only grew.

By the time the runners hit the 13th fence, The Real Wacker was eight lengths ahead of the handicap field, 12 lengths ahead of the handicap now leader Stolen Silver at the third last and 12 lengths ahead of Midnight River at the second last and 20 ahead at the finish line.

This was a rather remarkable performance! His closing sectional from three out to the finish was quicker than Midnight River, who won this handicap off of a rating of 145, but the overall time suggests we could be looking at a 160-rated chaser in The Real Wacker.

The Real Wacker won this contest over 2m4 1/2f and previously had won over 3m when quickening up smartly to beat Indigo Breeze. Which trip he will run over at the Cheltenham Festival is up for debate, but given the slow early tempo, he could be run off his feet in a Turners Chase against some former two-milers. The Brown Advisory looks like a good spot for him, and his 20/1 top price with Betfair is miles over-priced on this evidence in a race that looks wide open.

I am tempted to get involved, but given his connections, he will hardly be a plunging horse. So it might be best to hold off and wait, especially with the nature of this race looking wide open and a likely big field size.

Back So Scottish for the Festival Plate at 16/1

A horse I have been itching to get on this list is Emmet Mullins' So Scottish at 16/1 for the Plate Handicap chase, and I wanted to get in before the NRNB came along. I don't think he has the pace for the Grand Annual!

The six-year-old is rather exciting and was last seen chasing home subsequent winner Boothill at Ascot when three pounds out of the handicap over 2m.

He was tapped for toe coming around the bend but picked up in good style once asked the question and finished strongly. That 2m trip looked on the short side for him, and he needed every yard to win at Carlisle cosily on his penultimate start over 2m4f despite some jumping blemishes. He is currently rated 132 in Ireland but will no doubt be given a couple of pounds on the collateral form before returning to England. However, it would be no surprise to see connections give him another run to ensure he gets as they did with The Shunter in 2021. Paul Bryne and Emmet Mullins could have another money spinner here.