Cheltenham Festival Focus: Be brave and back Nicholls 10/1 runner for the Ryanair

• Daryl looks back at last Sunday's excellent Cork action

• Five races not to miss on Boxing Day!

• Questions from Focus followers

• 10/1 chance for the Ryanair!

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Blood is still a big price for Triumph destiny

We rewind to last Sunday at Cork, the only jumps racing to have taken place all week, but there could have been a handful of Cheltenham Festival winners on this card alone!

Our gamble on Blood Destiny at 33/1 has paid off in the short term, and he was a horse I was impressed with and is now 20/1 top price with Betfair for the Triumph Hurdle, which I still think is bonkers!

One thing to note is that the times on Sunday are to be taken with a pinch of salt. All jockeys seemed to be cautious of the ground, and all races started very steadily and were below what would be expected.

Paul Townend diverted from the abandoned Punchestown meeting and took up the running on Blood Destiny. He travelled strongly, was big at the first one or two and was novicy before his rider injected some pace into the race, and that's when he really came alive. He was fast and fluent and quickly produced his landing gear when skipping over the rest of the hurdles.

He was still very much in his jockey's hands at the last, and he cruised to victory, pricking his ears at the line. He took a good while to pull up, cantering round to the cross path, which is around 92 lengths past the winning post.

Overall, it was everything you would have wanted to see when taking a chance on an unraced horse at a big price. Willie Mullins' post-race comments suggested it was a Grade 1 route with him, so we are in business for now.

He received an RPR of 127, which is more than fair for a Maiden Hurdle debut won easily. Zarak The Brave was given the same for his debut victory, while Lossiemouth was given 136. The lack of competition in Blood Destiny's race has likely contributed to his RPR, given Lossiemouth met Zarak The Brave on debut. However, the French comparison shows that he has more to come and is still underestimated in the ante-post book. He looks like a natural jumper, and his speed over hurdles will see him mix it at the top table.

Henry De Bromhead's Artic Bresil was brought for 305,000 GBP 13 months ago after he finished second in a point-to-point and was impressive on debut at Cork over 2m1f on Sunday.

He took the scalp of odds-on favourite Mercury, who looks as though he will fall short of the top level and is overrated, and in turn, so may this form be. The winner did everything nicely and won, going away in good style, but he looks like a middle-distance horse to me and is not one I will be getting too excited about yet. He is 12/1 for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle.

Reservations about Hiddenvalley Lake for now

While I have mentioned that the times were something to take with a pinch of salt, it's interesting that Henry de Bromhead's three-mile novice Hiddenvalley Lake clocked a final circuit quicker than both two-mile races on the card (Blood Destiny and Artic Bresil). He won, going away in fine style. I liked it, but I do have a few reservations.

His final sectional from the back of the last was much slower than Blood Destiny, and the eventual fourth was faster than the runner-up and the third. I think that favourite and third Monbeg Park is a non-stayer, and I would worry about the level of form that Cool Survivor brought into the race.

It's easy to say the latter won a Listed contest before this, but it was a terribly poor Listed event that recorded an RPR of 129. Cool Survivor is perhaps a 130 horse, and the winner could prove to need testing ground. Hiddenvalley Lake is now as short as 11/2 for the Albert Bartlett.

Impervious remained unbeaten over fences when taking the scalp of Dino Blue at Cork over 2m on Sunday. She is now 4/1 for the Mares Chase.

Thankfully Dino Blue was too short in the Betfair Mares Chase market three weeks ago; otherwise, she may have been on our list. Still, she will not hit the heights required to win a Mares Chase or any race at the Cheltenham Festival. She jumped well here and had no excuse or answer to the powerful finishing effort of the winner Impervious.

The winner looks useful, and she already has Cheltenham Festival experience, for which she ran a good sixth in the Mares Novice Hurdle last term. She ran the inside route on the worst of the ground that day and can probably have her effort upgraded. Still, fences have brought out the best in her, and she has a smart turn of foot. It must be remembered that the Mares Chase is over 2m4f and is a fair test of stamina for which she is yet to prove.

Energumene was 19lbs and 21lbs clear of his rivals when making a winning return at Cork on Sunday. We learned very little here other than he is still a joy to watch. He is relentless when racing from the front.

Connections reverted to hold-up tactics in last year's Champion Chase, but for me, he is more of a revelation when going from the front and punishing his rivals. I think he jumps slower than Edwardstone, but with a small field highly likely this term, he could go back to front-running tactics. I can't wait for this. Energumene is now Evens for the Champion Chase.

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Do not miss these five Boxing Day races

The Kauto Star Grade 1 is usually seen as the best guide for British staying chasers. Won last year by Bravemansgame, who missed Cheltenham, but the race saw runner-up Ahoy Senor fill the same spot in the Brown Advisory.

Topofthegame is the only horse in recent years to have won this and at the festival in March, although Might Bite did make amends for his last flight fall when going on to win at the Cheltenham Festival. This will field will likely prove the best of the British Novice Chasers, so look to the Irish if this race looks poor.

Constitution Hill will surely win the Christmas Hurdle this term as he takes on Epatante for a second time. This race has been an excellent pointer to the Champion Hurdle, but Constitution Hill is a freak, and it wouldn't matter which race he ran in.

The King George, interestingly, hasn't produced a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner since 2008, but it does have a good record for producing Ryanair candidates from those beaten. Cue Card, Dynaste, and Vautour being three in recent years.

The Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown has been an excellent pointer to the Arkle in recent years. Douvan, Footpad, Le Richebourg was favourite for March after winning this, but for injury. Notebook didn't win the Arkle but went off a 5/2f on the back of this, and Ferny Hollow was a strong odds-on favourite before suffering an injury after landing this race.

The Faugheen Novices Chase at Limerick is a good indicator for those likely to tackle the Turners Chase in March. You don't have to win this event either. Samcro reversed a ten-length deficit with Faugheen to win the Turners in 2020, for example, and plenty of beaten horses have improved in the spring. Those dropping back in trip after this don't have a great record.

That's all for now, as I plan to have another column on 27 December.

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Followers Questions

As it has been a quiet week I thought it wise to pick up some of your questions so thanks to those that got involved.

No offence Thyme hill and tellmesomethinggirl look the 2 weakest of your ante post selections, who do you fancy for the brown advisory and the mares chase now , where's the value.....

-- Jaime Wrenn (@jaime_wrenn) December 17, 2022

Cheers for your Q Jamie. Yes, Thyme Hill is the weakest of our selections, and unfortunately, as an each-way selection, he ties up two points. Still, I am hopeful that connections will continue over fences with him as I like what he did at Exeter first time, and he is a horse I have always thought needs time between his outings. Newbury perhaps came too quick, but he never went a yard that day. He also has a fabulous record at Cheltenham, so he could yet prove a different proposition in the spring. I am hopeful at best.

Tellmesomethinggirl was a horse I put up on the back of defeat because I expected her to need the run and the book pushed her out. Even on her road to the Mares Hurdle and Mares Novice Hurdle connections always said they worked back from Cheltenham. There was a lot of promise in her run behind Glengouly when I expected her to need the outing - hence the selection - and she will take on the boys at Xmas. A good-placed run there will see us in a good spot. This Mares Chase division is very weak.

Do you think Allaho will run in the Ryanair (I think it's 50-50 at best), & with that in mind is it worth taking the double figure prices of those who will probably take part ? Shan Blue at 50-1 looks the best value now ,also fakir doudaires 10-1,blue Lord 14-1 &Envoi Allen 16-1

-- Boz Boston (@BozBoston) December 17, 2022

I agree, Boz. The market is steadily suggesting that Allaho may not turn up. He has drifted across the board to 2/1, but the Betfair Exchange has him at 2.7 (7/4). I think it's worth getting involved in this market, but I am waiting for Xmas to happen for further clues.

Envoi Allen has tempted me as I don't think he stays three miles despite his latest victory in the Champion Chase at Down Royal - it was a very slowly run affair. I couldn't have Shan Blue even at 100/1, Blue Lord would be interesting, but I just don't think he is that good. Fakir D'oudairies 10/1 might be a fair shout. Still, Allaho will still be in the market after Xmas, and you will be armed with further info.

Can you please tell us every winner of every race..!!

-- Paul Topliss (@pudser09) December 17, 2022

Yes, but you will have to wait until the week of the meeting.

Have you one at 33/1 + you can see being competitive?

-- Romero Sanchez Sports (@rssportsbetting) December 17, 2022

Yes, Tenzing - who runs today at Thurles, is currently 33/1 for the National Hunt Chase and he could be a big player if coming through today.

May have missed an opinion, but being against Jonbon last season are you still against him this season? (Forget the price I know it's short)

-- Gary Comley (@garycomley11) December 17, 2022

Hi Gary, yes, I was firmly against Jonbon last season, but I am not this year. He got a clean slate with me at the start of the season. I've been impressed with him, but I will still need to see that Irish firepower over Xmas.

Ballymore Novice Hurdle is Grangeclare West odds a price we must take now before Xmas racing programme. Currently he is a good EW single agree?

-- Shane (@oranje_1979) December 17, 2022

Hi Shane, yes, yes and yes. Grangeclare West is a beast and is one of my strongest selections on the list, and he will take a world of beating in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle. He is due to run in the Lawlors Of Naas on January 8th, and he looks right out of the top draw.

Good to soft
2m 2f chase
Old course, Cheltenham
All at their best
Douvan (Townend)
Vautour (Walsh)
Un de Sceaux (Geraghty)

Who wins
(Vautour for me)

-- Donie D (@DonieDrumm) December 17, 2022

What a great question! I was never a massive fan of Douvan, but I fully respected his incredible ability. I am with you on Vautor. He was just poetry in motion over a hurdle and a fence. I think Un De Sceaux would give him a good tow into the race!

Where would you say flame bearer runs in? Without laughing do you think there is very small value in backing iliketomoveit each way for the champion hurdle 50/1 he will run there and I count 5/6 horses above him who won't even run in the race could be a 5 runner race

-- The casual gambler (@gambler_casual) December 17, 2022

There's a lot of talk about Flame Bearer for the Arkle, but I have a feeling he won't cut it over fences. He was beaten in his point-to-point by the 117-rated Hidden Commander. I could be wrong. In terms of I Like To Move It, he has plenty to find at Champion Hurdle level. That Greatwood success has been blown out of proportion. I think it's risky backing a horse to place when you know it has no chance of winning the race.

With Impervious being impressive and also being a novice would you keep her to novice company or have a crack at the Mares Chase? Not much put a marker down for the Arkle bar Jonbon. She could go for the Mares Chase next year

-- Dean Crozier (@DeanCrozier) December 17, 2022

You're on the right lines with the Mares Chase. It's tricky because connections may fancy their chances in an Arkle if it cuts up, but on the bare form, she has plenty to find. The issue with the Mares Chase is that she has stamina to prove as it's over 2m4f.

What's your best 4 fold right now if you had to pick one

-- @mickysafc20 (@mickysafc20) December 17, 2022

Good question, Mick. I like these...

Grangeclare West 7/1 - Ballymore
Blood Destiny 20/1 - Triumph
The Storyteller 7/1 - St James' Palace
Brandy Love 9/2 - Mares Hurdle

That comes into around 7392/1 on Betfair

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Be Brave and back Nicholls runner for Ryanair success

The Ryanair is a race I want to take a chance with before Xmas. Allaho heads the market but is weak across the board, having been pushed out to 2/1 and with some firms and his 7/4 on the Betfair Exchange looks a little shakey.

Bravemansgame 10/1 is the horse I think we should roll the dice with. He heads up the market in the King Geroge at Kempton on Boxing Day, which I think he will win. Paul Nicholls has already suggested that he is probably not a dour stayer and the Gold Cup trip will stretch him, and he said back in November that "he could see him in a Ryanair and make plenty of use of him".

The King George has a good record of producing Ryanair winners, and this could be the opportunity for Cheltenham Festival success for the Ditcheat runner.

This race would look like his only option should he head to the Cheltenham Festival, and with four weeks between the Festival and Aintree this year (for the first time), I'd have little concerns about connections waiting for the Liverpool meeting.