Ante-Post Tips: Daryl Carter on the Group 1 Qatar Prix De l'Arc de Triomphe

• Ace Impact a very worthy favourite but he must be taken on

• Hukum appeals as the leading British contender

• Japanese raider the dark horse?

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Sun October 1st 15:15 - Qatar Prix De l'Arc de Triomphe

This year's Qatar Prix De l'Arc de Triomphe looks like a smashing renewal, and while getting involved ante-post this far out is not typically ideal, as I am away for the meeting I wanted to throw my two pence in for what it's worth.

The unbeaten three-year-old Ace Impact heads the betting on the Betfair Sportsbook at 3/14.00, but he is as big as 7/24.50 elsewhere. Still, the 3/14.00 on the Sportsbook looks short, given his racing style, but the further through this piece you read, you will probably understand why the Sportsbook is ducking him a little.

Ace Impact a worthy favourite, but not a bet

Ace Impact has found nothing good enough to beat him yet and ran a beautiful prep race for this when returning from a two-month absence to land the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano.

That race was a stepping stone used by the trainer last year when saddling Al Hakeem to finish a creditable fourth.

But backing a horse at 3/14.00 that you already know is going to give first run to some exceptional rivals is hard to swallow.

The French Derby winner has seen his form boosted multiple times this season as he has blasted home from off the pace, and I have no qualms about his ability nor him leading the market here.

Still, I worry about his exaggerated hold-up style of racing (although he didn't race like that on debut), and I am not a fan of betting on a horse when I have to rely on the pace of others and a jockey having to weave his way through traffic, it seems unnecessary to overcomplicate things.

This contest typically attracts a field size of 14 plus (20 last year), which will be the most opponents he has faced in a race to date, and Ace Impact's racing style breeds harrowing luck stories. Throw in that this will be his most challenging assignment to date, the unknown about the ground, draw and pace map and his stamina at this new distance and he makes for an unappealing proposition from an ante-post perspective.

Three-year-olds like Ace Impact are often overbet in this contest. Only exceptional three-year-olds win this race: Treve (2013), Golden Horn (2015) and Enable (2017) have managed the feat in the last ten years, and two of those went off at 9/25.50.

Continuous of interest but only if declared

In the same breath, if three-year-old Continuous 8/19.00 is supplemented for this race, I would strongly consider him despite the two-week turnaround. He tanked through the St Leger when tipped up at 4/1, and always wanted to go a yard quicker than the boats he was racing against, so he should relish the drop back to 1m4f.

Aidan O'Brien's three-year-old is on a steep upward trajectory, and the turn of foot he showed at York (backed up by the sectionals) and Doncaster marks him down as a real player in this contest.

Still, he would need to improve on the bare form to make an impact here, but I have little doubt he has the ability to take a serious hand. That's a play for the day, though. I won't be taking 8/19.00 and sitting there hoping he is supplemented.

Form horse Hukum is a major player

Hukum 7/18.00 easily brings the older horses' best form, which is robust, proven form, and he arrives on a steep upward curve. Typically, this race sees soft ground (and worse), and even if not, there will be large odds that any firm appears in the going description.

That will suit Owen Burrows' thriving six-year-old, for whom it is challenging to see any negatives with his chances. Providing he is granted a fair draw, he - like he was at Ascot - is unlikely to be far off the pace under Jim Crowley, and he almost certainly will have the first run on the favourite.

Hukum has tasted defeat just twice in his career over 1m4f on turf. Once in the Sheema Classic in Meydan (2022), when a steady pace saw him unfavourably positioned and running on at the finish and the other in the Hardwick at Ascot in 2021 and that defeat is the only time he has been beaten with soft in the going description.

I am probably not telling you anything you didn't know, and he is hardly inconspicuous in the market as a third favourite, but he is a damn solid betting proposition. He has had a good chunk of my change with the current 7/18.00 good value on the Sportsbook - although it's worth mentioning at the time of writing (19/09/2023) that he has drifted from 9/25.50 to his current price.

Ground concerns for brilliant Westover

If you keen on Hukum, you must like Westover at twice the price 11/112.00 I hear you say. Well, you'd be correct, but since opening at double figure odds he has now contracted into 7/18.00 to join Hukum.

He is better than ever as a four-year-old and arrives on the back of a career-best effort when a head second to Hukum in the King George at Ascot 64 days ago. He and Hukum have been kept fresh for this, and his profile has gone from looking untrustworthy to very consistent. He has now had just 12 starts and finished in the first two on nine of those.

Still, I worry about the impending soft ground for him. He looked to flounder in slow conditions in this race last year when only sixth, but his chances will be enhanced if the Autumn is dry - somehow, I don't think that will transpire.

Three-year-old fillies are usually a big draw for this race. However, Aidan O'Brien's Savethelastdance has been ruled out for the season, and some bookmakers (not Betfair) are still offering ante-post prices, so be aware.

Jannah Rose 50/151.00 will lead the line for the three-year-old fillies, but her form needs significant improvement.

It must not be forgotten that Emily Upjohn 10/111.00 smashed the living life out of Westover at Epsom before being a high-profile flop in the King George - ironically, the same race she flopped in last year before bouncing out and scoring on Champions Day at Ascot.

That may have been down to her tactical speed and not her staying power, with Westover coming back at her at Epsom at the finish. The ground would have to be a concern for her, with an unproven profile on ground worse than good to soft.

She is priced accordingly at her current odds and is shortest with the Betfair Sportsbook. I'd rather wait until the day as she would interest me more if the hood (2-2) returned and I knew the ground and whether connections chose this over Champions Day.

Don't fall for Luxembourg again!

I'd urge people to avoid falling for Luxembourg 10/111.00, who looks short for this race despite running with extreme credit at Leopardstown. The move back up in trip here has to be a concern, and he likes Leopardstown. He ran a good race here last year when stuck in on the rail, and he didn't get the rub of the green, but he has lots of work to do to match Hukum.

I have long thought 1m4f would suit Bay Bridge 20/121.00, and that proved so when a dominant winner at Kempton in the September Stakes, but it was a soft race, and he would need to improve on the bulk of his form to play a part. Throw in the option of Champions Day at Ascot, and I'd much rather be taking odds in the region of 25/126.00, although should he turn up in France, you're probably looking at more 9/110.00 on the day, but the percentage call is to leave him alone.

Don't underestimate Japan's chance

One of the most interesting runners is the Japanese raider, Through Seven Seas 20/121.00, who put in an excellent display in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen when finishing a narrow second to the world's highest-rated horse Equinox. I won't pretend to be a form student of Japanese racing, but this was an excellent performance by the five-year-old filly, and Equinox had beat up Westover in the Sheema Classic on his penultimate start to give a fair line into this race.

This was a taking run; after only a handful of starts, she could be anything. The Japanese like to have a representative in this race, and I see no reason on the back of that run as to why they wouldn't take up this engagement.

On that evidence 20/121.00 seems more than fair. She is impeccably bred by Dream Journey (Champion two-year-old and Japanese Derby winner), but she has clearly had her issues, having had just seven-lifetime starts since 2021. She is completely unproven on ground slower than good to firm, which is an obvious concern. Her Sire was also unraced on anything other than fast ground. Still, she is entitled to take her chance and should be monitored closely in the market.

A few others that will be of interest but don't appeal to me are Feed The Flame 7/18.00, who was better than the bare result on the clock, at least when behind Fantastic Moon in the Qatar Prix Niel, but needs a big career best on all known figures.

Simca Mille 16/117.00 looked excellent at Chantilly on his penultimate start in June but has been exposed to an extent with that form nowhere near the level required for this contest, and the same applies to his German Group 1 in August, in which Zagrey 16/117.00 trounced the runner-up in Baden-Baden next time.

Zagrey was no match for Westeover in the Sheema Classic nor Saint Cloud in July, so it's hard to see that form turned over.

Place Du Carrousel 16/117.00 has picked up some good opportunities, but again, it's muddling form, and I am inclined to believe that Nashwa was far from her best in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera Longines last October.

The French contingent bar, Ace Impact, has very similar and interlocking form lines, with none much better than the other, and it's all just white noise rather than anything with any significant substance to say they are better than the British/Irish runners.

The Verdict: Back Hukum to win the Arc @ 7/18.00

Therefore, I have turned to the British for the race winner.

Hukum - 7/18.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - gets my vote. He is very hard to knock, and with his form rivals Westover and Emily Upjohn both having a little to prove should the ground come up testing, he sets a clear standard with little worry on that front.

You could argue that he peaked in the King George, but a repeat of that performance will surely see him go close, and I like how trainer Owen Burrows has prepped him by giving him plenty of time between races.

Hukum has an exceptional record off of a break, facing defeat just once in his career (off 223 days on quick ground) and arriving off a 64-day break here is excellent training. He is a horse that ticks most of the boxes, and getting conditions in your favour is half the battle, and he has proven travelling is no problem.

As mentioned above, I will have something on Continuous 8/19.00 should he show up, while Emily Upjohn has a bigger performance in her, and both are on my radar.

For all you have to try and pick holes in Ace Impact being such a short-priced market leader, he has looked outstanding, and there likely is more to come over this 1m4f distance.

All in all, Hukum gets the vote ahead of Continuous at this stage, and his current 7/18.00 is good value with this race the ultimate aim.