USPGA Championship First-Round Leader Tips: Cash in on Kuchar

Dave Tindall
17 May 2022
3:00 min read

Matt Kuchar can set the early pace

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Southern Hill stages the year's second major and Dave Tindall has three picks to be First-Round leader at the USPGA...

"Chipping is being put forward as a vital skill at Southern Hills and Kuchar ranks 1st for Scrambling this season."
Back Matt Kuchar each-way at 81.080/1

Weather forecast for Thursday: The forecast shows a big yellow disc for most of the golfing day and suggests the morning wave have slightly better conditions.

The a.m. starters have warm conditions and winds of around 15mph but by early afternoon, those winds could pick up a little and the heat will be more oppressive at something just under 100 degrees. It's not a huge bias so I'll pick two earlys and one late.

Make it Matt

I've wanted to get Matt Kuchar on board on some level this week and FRL looks the way to do it.

Chipping is being put forward as a vital skill at Southern Hills and Kuchar ranks 1st for Scrambling this season.

Kuchar moved to top spot after getting up and down 81.3% of the time during his tied 12th in last week's Byron Nelson so that part of his game is sharp at the ideal time.

That finish forms part of a strong run of form that includes 16th at the Valspar, runner-up in the Texas Open and third at the RBC Heritage.

As for fast starts, he was third after 18 holes at the Texas Open and has been inside the top 20 following the opening lap in each of his five latest starts.

With four first-round leads to his name in his last 92 events, that strike-rate warrants a punt here at 80s.

Kuchar's early tee-time of 07.55 is handy for two reasons.

First, he should get slightly less wind and, second, he ranks 4th this season in Early Round 1 Scoring Average. Checking that table, he averages 67.44 when heading off in the first wave.

Home in on Hoge

Not too further down that Early Round 1 Scoring Average table is Tom Hoge in 23rd.

Hoge has had two first-round leads in 2022 already. A 63 set him on his way to a breakthrough first PGA Tour win at Pebble Beach while a Thursday 66 secured R1 honours at The Players Championship last month.

Ranking 8th for Scrambling and 10th for Strokes Gained: Approach looks a good combination for this course and a decent tied 17th at the Byron Nelson last week will give him some nice momentum.

Hoge, who hits off from the 1st at 08.39, is worth a punt at 100/1 to be one of the surprise names on the first-round leaderboard at close of play.

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Koepka can burst from the blocks again

I'm finding it hard to ignore Brooks Koepka at 50/1 so, despite possibly having slightly blustier winds if the forecast is correct, he gets the final spot.

Koepka's record on day one of majors is quite something and is worth a list. Here are his standout 18-hole positions...

Masters: 1st 2019

USPGA Championship: 1st 2019, 2nd 2021, 3rd 2017 and 2020.

US Open: 4th 2017, 5th 2021

Open Championship: 1st 2017, 3rd 2019

So that's three first-round leads and six other finishes inside the top five after round one at majors since 2017.

But how about this week's course suiting him? Well, with its shaved run-off areas, Southern Hills has been likened to Shinnecock (he won the 2018 US Open there), Royal Portrush (he took 4th there in 2019) and Augusta (he was runner-up there in 2019) so that has to bode well.

Koepka comes alive in the majors so 50/1 given his history of fast starts in them is worth a play.

He tees off at 13.03 local.