USPGA Championship 2022: The Punter's Preview
Read Steve Rawlings' in-depth preview of the USPGA Championship 2022 at Southern Hills in Oklahoma to get all the essential info and find out who our man fancies...
Steve says: "The Championship has moved around a bit in the calendar over the last few years but a previous win earlier in the season has been a very strong pointer historically with as many as 18 of the last 22 winners having already won an event prior to success in the US PGA Championship.
"It's not especially incredible that a major should be won by someone that had already tasted success earlier in the season, especially when it used to feature towards the end of the season, but it's worth highlighting that the list of 18 includes some very unlikely US PGA winners, with the likes of Y.E.Yang, Rich Beem, David Toms and Keegan Bradley all winning a tournament earlier in the season before they won what was then the final major of the year.
"This used to be a great Championship for big outsiders and the three winners between 2001 and 2003 - David Toms, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel - went off at huge prices. They were very hard to pick and had either Chris DiMarco or Justin Leonard won the 2004 playoff at Whistling Straits instead of Vijay Singh, the run of triple-figure priced winners would have stretched to four.
"The 2009 champ, Y.E Yang, went off at around 330.0329/1, Keegan Bradley was matched at a whopping 650.0649/1 before the off 11 years ago, the 2016 winner, Jimmy Walker, was matched at a juicy 220.0219/1, and Mickelson was a massive 540.0539/1 chance 12 months ago, but six of the last ten winners (Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka twice, Rory McIlroy twice and Jason Day) were all easy enough to find so it's been a mixed bag of late...
"The Sportsbook are now paying a whopping ten places for anyone that wants to play each-way at the US PGA Championship, but I've already backed my two on the exchange and first up is the world number four, Cameron Smith.
Smith is an exceptional putter, but he doesn't have any real weaknesses at present and given he's 28 and in search of his first major, he's a great fit stats-wise too.
"In search of his third victory of the year, having won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Players Championship, Smith looks destined for major championship success sooner rather than later and this venue looks perfect for him."
Steve's bet: Back Cameron Smith @ 28.027/1
USPGA Championship: 10-year trends point to...
Dave Tindall looks at the make-up of the last 10 US PGA winners to try and find this year's champion at Southern Hills...
Dave says: "This has been good tournament for home American players. They've been successful in seven of the last 10 editions while the other three were won by McIlroy (twice) and Australian Jason Day. If using team events as a guide, we can categorise the 10 as Americans, Europeans and Internationals.
American = 7pts
European = 2pts
Australian/Rest of World = 1pt
"Five of the last 10 winners were ranked in the world's top 10, showing how this has been a good event for golf's elite. A couple of surprise winners (Phil Mickelson 116th and Jimmy Walker 48th) give some hope to those not high up the world rankings.
Ranked 1-10 = 5pts
Ranked 11-20 = 2pts
Ranked 21-30 = 1pt
Ranked 31st or higher = 2pts
"This has always been an excellent event for players who had already posted a win that same season. Mickelson hadn't but he broke just about every trend. Seven of the last 10 champions had already banked some silverware in the season of their US PGA triumph."
Ten Year Trend Points To: Scottie Scheffler @ 13.525/2
USPGA Championship 2022 Player Guide: Profiles of the top 50 in the betting
Who has their eye on the Wanamaker Trophy? Who's the best bet? Who has the best form? Before striking your bets read Matt Cooper's guide to the leading players chasing Major glory...
Matt says: "Rory McIlroy PGA record: 3-3-64-1-8-1-17-MC-22-50-8-33-49.
"Take a look at those results above and witness a remarkable split in his championship record: five top 10s in his first half a dozen starts (including two wins) and just one in his last seven appearances. Form-wise, he's played once since his dazzling final round 64 at the Masters clinched second, finishing fifth on defence of the Wells Fargo Championship in May.
"'I'm really happy with where my game is," he said, adding that his approach work is in fine fettle. Still without a major triumph since 2014 and he identified the key problem in a BBC podcast last week: "If you keep knocking on doors, one will open, but I haven't been giving myself enough opportunities."
Rory McIlroy @ 18.017/1
USPGA Championship Each-Way Tips: Make it Matsuyama
Dave Tindall has three each-way tips for the action at Southern Hills with the Betfair Sportsbook paying 10 places...
Dave says: "A winner of the Sony Open in January - seven of the last US PGA champions had posted a victory earlier that same season - Matsuyama heads to Southern Hills on the back of fast-finishing third spot in the AT&T Byron Nelson where all his numbers were good.
"He ranked 1st for Approach in Texas and will surely have a spring in his step after walking off the course with a 62 after an eagle at 18.
"Also, I like the idea of players winning majors in bunches, something we've seen with Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa and Padraig Harrington to name a few.
"Given he won the US Masters last year, this looks a great chance for him to follow it up on a course that should suit him.
"Three of his last four wins have come on par 70s and his 11th place for Par 4 Scoring Average suggests he can thrive without the par fives once again."
Dave's bet: Back Hideki Matsuyama each-way @ 29.028/1
Find Me a 100 Winner: In-form Champ the power pick
Steve Rawlings choose his pick of the outsider with three to back at long odds for the Southern Hills Major...
Steve says: "Playing in his home state, Okie Talor Gooch, wont lack for support at a track he's played around a dozen times previously.
"Like Gooch, Abraham Ancer, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Alex Noren and Matthew Wolff all went to Oklahoma State, but having been born and raised in Midwest City, Talor is the only Oklahoman in the field so this really is a home game and there's every reason to think he can shine.
"Gooch has ticked along nicely enough after winning the RSM Classic in November where he ranked fourth for both Greens In Regulation and Scrambling and if he can repeat those figures he'll be there or thereabouts.
"He's well rested after a couple of weeks off and a missed cut last week and he's looking forward to the test. He had this to say in yesterday's press conference.
"'Game feels good. Obviously comfortable on this style of golf, on this type of grass, on these greens, and so if we can get a little bit of wind kicked up I'll be even more comfortable.'"
Steve's bet: Back Talor Gooch @ 150.0149/1
USPGA Championship 2022 Top 5 and Top 10 Tips: McIlroy has form to thrive
Dave Tindall arms you with the stats for a punt on the Top 5 and Top 10 Finish markets in the USPGA at Southern Hills...
Dave says: "Here's what Rory McIlroy had to say:
'Yesterday was the first time seeing the golf course. I really liked it. Love the green complexes. I love that he gives you options off the tee. One of the things I loved is the way they've cut the runoffs, it's very hard to putt from off the greens. They're trying to get wedges in guys' hands, which I really like. It's forcing you to chip instead of just like Pinehurst (2014 US Open) when you could putt from sort of everywhere. I feel good about my game. I've done some good work, I've led greens in regulation the last two tournaments I've played. That's something that hasn't quite been there. I focused a lot on iron play and chipping and putting last week in practice because I knew that was basically sort of going to be the key to having a good week this week.'
"With two PGA wins to his name already, McIlroy has the form to land a third."
McIlroy's last four events: 5-2-MC-33
USPGA form: 49-33-8-50-22-MC-17-1-8-1-64-3-3
Last 50 starts: Win: 6%, Top 5: 30%, Top 10: 44%
Dave's bet: Back Rory McIlroy for Top 5 @ 5.39/2
USPGA Championship First-Round Leader Tips: Cash in on Kuchar
Next up Dave Tindall considers who could make a strong start on Thursday and shares his three picks to be First-Round leader at the USPGA...
Dave says: "I've wanted to get Matt Kuchar on board on some level this week and FRL looks the way to do it. Chipping is being put forward as a vital skill at Southern Hills and Kuchar ranks 1st for Scrambling this season.
"Kuchar moved to top spot after getting up and down 81.3% of the time during his tied 12th in last week's Byron Nelson so that part of his game is sharp at the ideal time. That finish forms part of a strong run of form that includes 16th at the Valspar, runner-up in the Texas Open and third at the RBC Heritage.
As for fast starts, he was third after 18 holes at the Texas Open and has been inside the top 20 following the opening lap in each of his five latest starts. With four first-round leads to his name in his last 92 events, that strike-rate warrants a punt here at 80s.
"Kuchar's early tee-time of 07.55 is handy for two reasons. First, he should get slightly less wind and, second, he ranks 4th this season in Early Round 1 Scoring Average. Checking that table, he averages 67.44 when heading off in the first wave."
Dave's bet: Back Matt Kuchar each-way at 81.080/1
USPGA Championship: Major stats ahead of Oklahoma showdown
Andy Swales selects 12 leading contenders for the title at Southern Hills this week...
Andy says: "With the four major championships now condensed into a 15-week slot between April and mid-July, there has hardly been time to draw breath since the Masters came to a close on April 10.
"Second on the list of majors for 2022 is the USPGA Championship, which no longer takes place in early-August, having been switched to mid-May a few years ago. This year's instalment takes place at Southern Hills which will be hosting a major championship for the eighth time...
"Despite being at No 12 in the world - his lowest ranking for seven years - the two-time Major winner Dustin Johnson remains a serious threat. Tied-12th at Augusta last month and posted a top-10 finish at Sawgrass."
Andy also takes a close look at the players' form
Andy's Player to Watch: Dustin Johnson @ 32.031/1