Masters Find Me a 100 Winner Special: Can Kurt break the curse at Augusta?

• Back to 2009 for Cabrera miracle

• LIV player Patrick Reed could win once again at 100.099/1

• Kurt Kitayama a first time winner at 200.0199/1?

• Back former champion Willett at 280.0279/1

• Read all our Masters content this week here

14 years since Carbrera 150.0149/1

Let's not beat about the bush here. It's never easy to land a triple-figure priced winner and some events are easier than others. Some tournaments are very longshot friendly but the US Masters isn't. Or at least, it hasn't been lately...

We need go all the way back to 2009 for the last time an outsider won - 150.0149/1 chance Angel Cabrera - and if last year's renewal is anything to go by, we may be waiting a while yet for another.

Former winners, Charl Schwartzel, who finished tied for 10th, and Danny Willett, who finished tied 12th, were the only players that went off at a triple-figure price to finish inside the top-12 and ties.

It's quite odd that we've gone so long without a longshot donning the famous Green Jacket though because Cabrera was the third winner in-a-row to go off at a three-figure price, following Zach Johnson in 2007 and Trever Immelman in '08.

There was a similar run of results a decade earlier when between 1998 and 2000, Mark O'Meara, Jose Maria Olazabal and Vijay Singh all won at juicy odds.

Use the Exchange to profit

It may have been a while since we had a huge-priced winner at Augusta but with the Betfair Exchange, profits can be made with players that don't win anyway, provided we back them high and lay them low and if you're new to the column, that's exactly the purpose of it.

And we've had a degree of success at Augusta of late.

Profits were made at the 2020 edition, when the runner-up, Cam Smith, a selection for the column at 140.0139/1, traded at a low of 5.59/2 and the following year, all three selections - last week's Texas Open winner, Corey Conners, Brian Harman and Kevin Na - all finished inside the top-12. Conners hit a low of 12.011/1 and Harman touched 14.013/1.

It's always nice to back a winner at a huge price but getting them across the line isn't essential so for more on trading and specifically laying, please see this handy guide and please do bear in mind, that the lay targets I set below are for record keeping purposes.

They're not set in stone by any means and you can set your own lay back targets.

As you'd expect when backing players at 100.099/1 or more, compromises obviously need to be made and my main concern with regards to my first pick - Patrick Reed - is that he's now plying his trade on the LIV Golf Tour.

Ruthless Reed can contend again

Reed is one of 18 participants in this week's US Masters that have jumped ship to join the LIV Golf Tour and he's one of six defectors that have already won at Augusta.

Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel and Phil Mickelson are hard to fancy but the 2020 winner, Dustin Johnson, who trades at around 34.033/1, could very easily contend and so too could the 2018 champ, Patrick Reed.

Playing only 14 54-hole events a year is going to severely handicap the LIV golfers when they rock up at the four majors and the shortest of them all, Cam Smith, looks significantly undercooked coming into this week but like it or loathe it, sooner or later, one of them is going to contend at a major and maybe even win one.

DJ is just the sort of laid-back character that can ignore the inevitable furore and he looks a reasonable price.

He finished sixth in the Open back in July soon after joining LIV and Reed has also shown that he can hustle with the best of them when he pushed Rory McIlroy all the way at the Dubai Desert Classic back in January.

Reed is far from popular but he has the skin of a rhino and he won't give a hoot how much stick he gets should he contend again.

He finished third on Sunday at the LIV Golf League Orlando after three rounds of 67 so he should have some confidence.

2 pts Patrick Reed @ 100.099/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Can Kurt break the curse?

You only really need a passing interest in the US Masters to know that Fuzzy Zoeller, in 1979, is the last debutant to don the famous Green Jacket.

It's far and away the most well touted Augusta stat so I'm always wary to put up a first timer but as already stated, compromises have to be made and it's one I'm happy to make with Kurt Kitayama given how well he's playing. And besides, it's surely only a matter of time before the wretched titbit can be confined to the bin.

Jason Day (2011), Jordan Spieth (2014), Will Zalatoris (2021), and one of my pre-event fancies, Sungjae Im (2020), have all finished runner-up on debut fairly recently so maybe we're due a first time winner?

One of the reasons we haven't seen a first timer win in so long is that most years, there simply aren't many very strong candidates in the line-up and this looks like one of those years.

Currently trading at 160.0159/1, Korea's Tom Kim, who is an incredible talent, is the shortest priced debutant in the field but he's played some ropey golf over the last few months whereas Kitayama will make his way down Magnolia Drive feeling extremely confident.

Kitayama held some of the biggest names in golf at bay when winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month, including the first two in the betting here - Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler - and he played some magnificent golf again at the WGC Match Play last time out when he finally succumbed to Cameron Young at the final hole in the quarter-finals.

That was a great effort given Young played so well all week (ran out of steam in the final when odds-on) and he might just cause a shock this week.

Kitayama ranked second for Greens In Regulation and seventh for Scrambling when he won at Bay Hill last month and if he puts up figures like that here he'll be there or thereabouts on Sunday afternoon.

Back 2 u Kurt Kitayama @ 200.0199/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Weird Willett can't be dismissed

Former winners have a great record at Augusta so I'm happy to chance the 2016 champ, Danny Willett, despite his only ordinary recent form.

As Matt Cooper highlights in his Player Guide, the Sheffielder really is an enigma - popping up in big events at very big prices and there's a reason why his sole major success to date came at Augusta - his outrageously good game around the greens.

Even though his results haven't been spectacular of late (27th at the Players Championship last time out), in his last five starts he's ranked 20th, first, 12th, 29th and second for Scrambling.

Willett has won three times since he won the US Masters and he hasn't telegraphed any of the three victories.

He went off at 150.0149/1 when he won the DP World Tour Championship in November 2018, he was matched at 100.099/1 before the off when he won the BMW PGA Championship and having been matched at as high as 150.0149/1, he was a 120.0119/1 chance when he won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October 2021.

And he really should have won four times at huge odds. He lost the Fortinet Championship on the 72nd hole in really bizarre circumstance back in September having gone off at 270.0269/1.

CHAOS on the 72nd hole to start the season

A hole-out and a 3-putt on the final hole made for a WILD finish @FortinetChamp. pic.twitter.com/tiSwSoEno4

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 19, 2022

He's the perfect candidate and a juicy price at 280.0279/1.

Back 2 u Danny Willett @ 280.0279/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter