US Masters 2022: Are we set for a first time Masters winner?

Matt Cooper
05 April 2022
4:00 min read

Lowry is seeking to add Masters glory to his Open win in 2019.

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A first time Masters winner is short odds on the Betfair Exchange, so will we see a new player slipping on the green jacket? Matt Cooper assesses the betting...

"He’s not finished outside the top 25 in his last seven strokeplay starts and six times in that run he ended the week in the top 15."
Shane Lowry 1pt each-way @ 34.033/1

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a single man in want of a green jacket must be in possession of a good Augusta track record.

Jane Austen never wrote it quite like that, of course (although, rather bizarrely, her novels did feature two separate characters called Augusta).

But the mangling of her famous introduction to Pride and Prejudice is apt when we consider the identity of this year's Masters winner.

This is, after all, a tournament and a test that demands knowledge, as the tournament preview by Steve Rawlings and Dave Tindall's trends piece both emphasise.

The value of that bank of knowledge is vital all week, but it is highlighted on the final day of action when landing the ball in the right areas will permit the contours to further a player's dreams (or just as easily destroy them).

Past champions have therefore often dominated the betting.

In 2018, for example, four of the top eight players in the betting already had green jackets stored in the club locker room, and in 2016 that tally was four of the top six.

This year, however? It's just two in the top 16 (Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson).

Why is it different this year?

There's a straightforward answer to this question: recent Masters winners have gone right off the boil and many are simply no longer at the forefront of the sport.

Zach Johnson has Ryder Cup captaincy on his mind, Trevor Immelman works in TV, Charl Schwartzel hasn't made a cut in six starts, Bubba Watson has one major championship top 10 since his last win in 2014, Sergio Garcia has none since his victory in 2017, Adam Scott has none in the last two years, Danny Willett is enigmatic, Hideki Matsuyama is injured, Angel Cabrera is in jail, and no-one knows where Phil Mickelson is (literally or metaphorically).

It's a rum collection and makes you yearn to be a fly on the Champions' Dinner wall rather than rush to check out their starting prices.

Unmentioned in that list are the remarkable Tiger Woods (for whom playing 18 holes will be considered a triumph), Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth.

jordan spieth masters 2022.jpg

The latter three have doubts about their cases, but also reasons to believe they can win again. Indeed, Steve Rawlings is keen on the latter pair.

Among the first-time win chasers are the two men at the top of the betting (Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas), two of the year's hottest performers (Cameron Smith and Scottie Scheffler), two men who've sussed how to win multiple majors (Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa), the career grand slam-chasing Rory McIlroy, last year's runner-up Will Zalatoris, and major championship top 10 machine Xander Schauffele (Dave Tindall's pick).

Little wonder that Exchange bettors make a First Time Winner such short odds.

Rather than take those very short odds I've looked for a player chasing his first green jacket who offers a little each-way value with the ten places on offer.

Main Bet: Shane Lowry 1pt each-way @ 33/1

Last May, off the back of finishing tied fourth at the PGA Championship, Shane Lowry chatted to the British press about his upcoming - and delayed - defence of the Claret Jug.

His words were bullish without being boastful. He wasn't talking himself up, merely acknowledging a few truths (another apology to Austen).

"I love Major Championships," he said. "I really love big weeks. It's the atmosphere. Last year (2020) I struggled with no crowds. It was hard to get yourself to the right levels of intensity. But the Masters in April and last week was great.

"We have a family base in the States now. That helps me on the PGA Tour and in the big events. That's definitely helped my form at the moment and my game has matured. I have as a person, too.

"I'm 34 now. When I get to the big weeks, I know what happens. You have tough runs. You have good runs and when you have the good runs you have to make the most of them, take advantage. I did that last week.

"Contending in majors. That's the buzz, that why I get up every morning. Hopefully I can give myself more chances in the next couple of years."

He may have struggled in those quiet majors of 2020, but last year he landed a career-best at Augusta, followed it with that top five at Kiawah Island and, after a slow start at Royal St George's on defence of the Claret Jug, he played excellent golf for T12th.

He had early problems with the Masters examination, missing three cuts in his first four visits. But in finishing T25th and T21st the last two years he has recorded comfortably his best Greens in Regulation stats and last year his best putting numbers (even if we only have old fashioned stats to go by).

His form is also superb.

He's not finished outside the top 25 in his last seven strokeplay starts and six times in that run he ended the week in the top 15 (and never outside the top 20 for Strokes Gained Approach or Tee to Green in that stretch).

But for an outrageously good finish by Sepp Straka (and an ill-timed downpour) he would probably have won the Honda Classic.

Having difficulty working out the place returns? Fret no more - you can easily work out your returns with our new each way calculator.

Betfair Betting Podcast · Golf...Only Bettor | Ep 3 | Your 2022 Masters Tournament Preview

Each-Way Golf Betting on The Masters

Not sure about your each-way payout? Take a look at our brand new golf each-way calculator - simply enter your stake, the number of places on offer and the position of your player and it will give you the full lowdown...