The Open Betting Tips

How To Bet on Golf

Steve Rawlings Golf Previews

Golf Each-Way Tips

Long Odds Golf Tips

Each-Way Calculator

US Masters 2022: 10-year trends point to...

Dave Tindall
30 March 2022
6:00 min read

Who do the numbers guide us to?

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Dave Tindall looks at the make-up of the last 10 Augusta National champions to try and find this year's Masters winner...

"It's almost essential to take on Augusta National with some sort of current form although it doesn't need to be a victory. A look at the last 10 winners shows that all 10 had finished in the top 30 in at least one of their two starts before arriving at Augusta National."

Welcome back!

Regular readers may recall that the annual Masters 10-year trends piece threw up Hideki Matsuyama as its selection.

Unfortunately, that was in 2019!

Perhaps, then, given that the Japanese star scored his win two years too late, the winner this time will be the 2020 pick, Patrick Cantlay.

A little more on Matsuyama later but, first, some exciting news: this year's 10-year trends piece is new and improved!

Instead of striking a line through players who fall at a particular statistical hurdle, I'm scrapping the process of elimination approach and going for a points system.

In addition, I'm also bringing some current stats and Strokes Gained numbers to the table in a bid to reward those excelling in the skills best suited to Augusta National.

The new set of 11 categories are now this: Age, World Ranking, Masters Appearances, Best Masters finish, Low Masters Round, Defending Champion, Recent Form, Green Jacket, Recent Major Form, Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Around The Green.

Age

Let's use the opening category to explain the new points scoring system. Under the previous rules, because nine of the last 10 winners were in their 20s or 30s, I'd have eliminated anyone 40 or above.

This time, I'm going to award points based on how often each age group won across those 10 editions. So as four 20-somethings won, anyone in their 20s this year is awarded 4pts. Here's the allocation.

In their 20s: 4pts
In their 30: 5pts
In their 40s: 1pt

So, just to clarify, there were five winners in their 30s in the last 10 years so that category of player this year is given 5pts. That would apply to 38-year-old Dustin Johnson for example. Previously, 44-year-old Paul Casey would have been crossed off. Instead, this year he gets a single point (courtesy of Tiger, then 43, in 2019) and fights on.

Hideki Matsuyama shades 1280.jpg

World Ranking

Eight of the last 10 winners were ranked in the world's top 20 while the other two were 24th (Patrick Reed) and 25th (Hideki Matsuyama). Using frequency to guide us again, that gives a fairly straightforward points allocation.

Ranked 1-20 = 8pts
Ranked 21-30 = 2pts

Appearances

Experience is worth its weight in gold at Augusta National and eight of the last 10 winners had played in at least three Masters. Famously, there hasn't been a first-time champion since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 but instead of eliminating the newbies (who include Sam Burns), they get zero points due to no debutant winner in the last 10 years.

In our study period of 2012 to 2021, Jordan Spieth (2015) and Danny Willett (2016) both won on the back of just a single appearance so it's possible although rare. Hence the following points allocation.

Played in 3 or more Masters = 8pts
Played in 1 or 2 Masters = 2pts
Played in 0 Masters = 0pts

Best Masters finish

Hideki Matsuyama was already a proven performer at Augusta National, as were so many past winners. Seven of the last 10 champions had posted a previous top 10, two others had managed a best between 11th and 25th and one other (Willett) had a best of 38th. Hopefully, the points allocation system is now becoming familiar.

Previous Top 10 = 7pts
Previous best of 11th-25th = 2pts
Previous best of 26th-40th = 1pt

Lowest Augusta round

In an event where course form counts for plenty, I'm happy to throw in another stat which relates to performance at Augusta. This one is a player's previous best round there.

Jordan Spieth Augusta caddie.jpg

Any player who has shot a 5-under lap of Augusta National will have a belief that they can score on this course. Indeed, seven of the last 10 winners had a previous 67 or better on the par 72 under their belts. Therefore...

Shot a 67 or lower = 7pts
Shot a 68, 69 or 70 = 2pts
Shot a 71 = 1pt

Justin Thomas, for example, carded an opening 66 in 2020 and a second-round 67 last year so gets the full seven points. Matsuyama's low lap before his win last year was a 66.

Defending Champion

Winning back-to-back green jackets is incredibly hard. Only the greats - Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods - have managed it. Woods was the last in 2002 which means there hasn't been a successful defence in the last 10 years. Bad news for Hideki.

Defending champion = 0pts
Not the defending champion = 10pts

Recent Form

It's almost essential to take on Augusta National with some sort of current form although it doesn't need to be a victory. A look at the last 10 winners shows that all 10 had finished in the top 30 in at least one of their two starts before arriving at Augusta National.

But we can get even more specific as nine of the last 10 had a top 15 in a strokeplay event in the same month of the US Masters or the previous month. That's usually March/April although in the delayed 2020 edition it was October/November.

Top 15 finish in a strokeplay event in March/April = 9pts
Best of 16th-30th in a strokeplay event in March/April = 1pt

Green Jacket

Again, a simple numbers game here. Only two of the last 10 Masters champions had won the green jacket previously - Tiger and Bubba. The stats say this year's winner is more likely not to have chosen the Champions Dinner menu before.

Past winner = 2pts
Not past winner = 8pts

Recent major form

Those who do end up winning the green jacket don't come out of thin air; often they've telegraphed their victory with a strong performance in a relatively recent major.

The stats are surprisingly strong here as nine of the last 10 winners had posted a top six in a major in one of the previous two seasons. Even someone we think of as a slightly freakish winner, Danny Willett, had finished tied 6th at the 2015 Open just two majors before his 2016 Masters triumph.

Top 6 in a Major in 2020 or 2021 = 9pts
7th-15th in a Major in 2020 or 2021 = 1pt

Driving Distance

The widely-held belief that Driving Distance is a key skill at Augusta National has statistical credence too. Using stats from datagolf, DD counts for more in the Masters than it does at an average PGA Tour event. The exact opposite is true of Driving Accuracy so that's in line with the perception that bombers thrive despite missing fairways.

To turn that into points, I'm going to divide this season's Driving Distance stats into blocks of 25 and award points accordingly to reflect that the longer hitters have an advantage.

Ranked 1-25 = 8pts
Ranked 26-50 = 7pts
Ranked 51-75 = 6pts
Ranked 76-100 = 5pts
Ranked 101-125 = 4pts
Ranked 126-150 = 3pts
Ranked 151-175 = 2pts
Ranked 176 or lower = 1pt

Jon Rahm is ranked 7th for DD this season so gets the full 8pts but Daniel Berger is down at 165th so is awarded just 2pts.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

These weren't available in the usual separate Strokes Gained categories of Off The Tee, Approach, Around The Green, Tee To Green and Putting until last year. Again, using datagolf stats (although just for 2021), the category with the biggest difference to a regular event is the usually neglected Strokes Gained: Around The Green.

Justin Thomas chips at Augusta.jpg

That doesn't come as a surprise given that so many Masters winners were described as having sharp short games or a bit of magic in their wrists.

Specifically looking at last year, seven of the top 11 finishers ranked in the top 10 for SG: Around The Green. Again, I'll use the blocks of 25 allocation.

Ranked 1-25 = 8pts
Ranked 26-50 = 7pts
Ranked 51-75 = 6pts
Ranked 76-100 = 5pts
Ranked 101-125 = 4pts
Ranked 126-150 = 3pts
Ranked 151-175 = 2pts
Ranked 176 or lower = 1pt

Better news for Berger as he's 10th for SG: Around The Green so gets the full 8pts as do Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay and Matt Fitzpatrick. Jon Rahm, though, is way down at 168th so gets just 2pts.

The Top Points Scorers

And now the exciting bit!!

The scores are in and, drumroll, these are the top 10 in the rankings:

87 Rory McIlroy
85 Justin Thomas
84 Xander Schauffele
82 Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith
78 Louis Oosthuizen
75 Dustin Johnson
72 Jon Rahm
71 Paul Casey
67 Jordan Spieth

It's Rory!!

The Northern Irishman scores full marks in every single category, just edging out Justin Thomas in two: Age and SG: Around The Green.

Rory is in his 30s (the most common age of a Masters winner in the last 10 years) while 28-year-old Thomas (34th) is in rung two (26th-50th) for Around The Green.

McIlroy is 2019/1 on the exchange, with Thomas 1716/1.

There also looks to be a bit of value in Xander Schauffele at 2928/1, Louis Oosthuizen at 5655/1 and Paul Casey at 9089/1, who score strongly across the board.

Notes: With a top 15 finish in this week's Texas Open, Jordan Spieth could jump to sixth spot with 76 points.

The Driving Distance and Around The Green stats will change after the Texas Open. If Rory drops outside the top 25 in either category, Thomas could take over at the top. McIlroy isn't actually included in either list at the time of writing but if plugging in the stats on his PGA page, the Northern Irishman ranks 3rd for DD and 12th for Around The Green so he has some margin for error.

Betfair Betting Podcast · Golf...Only Bettor | Ep 3 | Your 2022 Masters Tournament Preview

New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. T&Cs apply.

Join

View market

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

Discover the latest articles

More US Masters

The Open Betting Tips

How To Bet on Golf

Steve Rawlings Golf Previews

Golf Each-Way Tips

Long Odds Golf Tips

Each-Way Calculator

US Masters 2022: 10-year trends point to...

Age

World Ranking

Appearances

Best Masters finish

Lowest Augusta round

Defending Champion

Recent Form

Green Jacket

Recent major form

Driving Distance

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

The Top Points Scorers

Discover the latest articles

Most read stories

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Two tied at the top at Blair Atholl

South African Open First-Round Leader Tips: Selections from 50/1 to 80/1

Australian Open and South African Open Each-Way Tips: 25/1 Ferguson a Player

ISPS Handa Australian Open 2023: Course and current form stats

The Open Betting Tips

How To Bet on Golf

Steve Rawlings Golf Previews

Golf Each-Way Tips

Long Odds Golf Tips

Each-Way Calculator

Age

World Ranking

Appearances

Best Masters finish

Lowest Augusta round

Defending Champion

Recent Form

Green Jacket

Recent major form

Driving Distance

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

The Top Points Scorers

New customers can get £20 in free bets!

Discover the latest articles

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Two tied at the top at Blair Atholl

South African Open First-Round Leader Tips: Selections from 50/1 to 80/1

Australian Open and South African Open Each-Way Tips: 25/1 Ferguson a Player

ISPS Handa Australian Open 2023: Course and current form stats