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What happened last week? Red-hot Young wins wire-to-wire

The world number four, Cameron Young, opened the Cadillac Championship at Doral with an immaculate eight-under-par 64 and he was never headed after that.

He led the event by five at halfway and he was trading at 1.222/9 with 18 to play when up by six.

Having backed him before the off at 14/115.00, it was nice to bag a comfortable stress-free winner, and I've also backed him to win next week's major, the US PGA Championship.

Young's victory moves him back up to third in the Official World rankings ahead of the in-form Matt Fitzpatrick and with three wins in his last 14 starts, he's gone from being a frustrating player to follow to a prolific winning machine.

Young is currently trading at 11.521/2 to claim another victory in this week's event but, with course form figures reading 59-34-47, I prefer his chances at the Donald Ross designed Aronimink next week.

Young secured his first PGA Tour title in August last year when he hacked by six in the Wyndham Championship at another Ross design, Sedgefield Country Club.

Young also has a second and a sixth around another Ross layout in the Rocket Classic, Detroit Country Club, so Aronimink should suit him nicely. After his third-place finish in the US Masters last month, Young looks primed to win his first major.

The 16/117.00 available on the Betfair Exchange looks more than fair.

Over on the DP World Tour, pre-event 48.047/1 chance Mikael Lindberg began the final round of the Turkish Airline Open tied for the lead with Portugal's Daniel Rodrigues, with a group of six players tied for second.

Lundberg was the narrow 5/16.00 favourite on the Betfair Exchange and we looked all set for a typically dramatic Sunday on the DP World Tour. But the 33-year-old Swede opened with a birdie at the par five first and, after he'd reached three-under-par for the day through seven, he was always in control.

Nobody else traded at any lower than 3.39/4 and Lundberg went on to claim his maiden victory by two strokes over Rodrigues and my 160.0159/1 Find Me a 100 Winner fancy Guido Migliozzi who traded at a low of 5.04/1.

It was a bit of a frustrating result given my other long-shot fancy, 140.0139/1 chance Darius Van Driel finished tied for fourth.

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Truist Championship Tournament History

The Truist Championship, previously known as the Wells Fargo Championship, and first staged in 2003, returns to its usual venue - Quali Hollow - after a year at the A.J Tillinghast designed Wissahickon Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club to make way for the US PGA Championship, won by Scottie Scheffler.

The 2017 edition was staged at Eagle Point when Quail Hollow hosted the US PGA Championship for the first time and the 2022 edition was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm because Quail hosted the Presidents Cup that year.

Now a Signature Event, the Truist Championship has established itself as one of the strongest tournaments on the PGA Tour.

The event was cancelled in 2020 because of the pandemic, so this is the 23^rd edition.

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Venue

Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina

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Course Details

Par 71 -7,558 yards in 2024
Stroke Average -71.73

Par 71 -7,626 yards in 2025 (US PGA Championship)
Stroke Average -72.51 

Designed by George Cobb in 1961 and built on a former dairy farm, Quail Hollow is a magnificent, long, classical course. 

Prior to this event's inaugural edition 22 years ago, Quail was the host course for the Kemper Open between 1969 and 1979. 

The course underwent an extensive renovation by Tom Fazio in 1997, well in advance of the first edition of this event, and further changes to the course were made in 2103 and 2014. 

Yet more changes were made to the venue prior to it hosting the 2017 edition of the US PGA Championship -won by Justin Thomas- and the par four 16^th was lengthened again prior to Rory McIlroy's fourth Truist title at Quail two years ago. 

Quail measured 7,558 yards for this event two years ago, but it measured as long as 7,600 back in 2017 when hosting the US PGA Championship for the first time and it measured 7,626 yards at last year's edition. 

The PGA Tour website has it listed as measuring 7, 538 yards this time around. 

The greens have recently been resurfaced with Tif Eagle Bermudagrass (formerly Champion Bermuda) and slopes have been softened to allow for more pin positions. 

The greens ran at as fast as 13.5 on the Stimpmeter at the Truist two years ago and the rough was only 2 ½ inches long. It was as high as four at the US PGA Championship last year. 

The last three holes, known as the 'Green Mile', are the hardest on the layout and in each of the last three events here they've averaged more than a stroke over par combined, so it's a very strong finish.

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Weather Forecast 

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting with Featured Group coverage at 16:00 on Thursday

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Last 10 winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange prices

2025 - Sepp Straka -16 44.043/1 (Played at Philadelphia Cricket Club)
2024 - Rory McIlroy -17 12.011/1
2023 - Wyndham Clark -19 100.099/1
2022 - Max Homa -8 46.045/1 (Played at TPC Potomac)
2021 - Rory McIlroy -10 21.020/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Max Homa -15 1000.0999/1
2018 - Jason Day -12 23.022/1
2017 - Brian Harman -10 120.0119/1 (Played at Eagle Point)
2016 - James Hahn -9 1000.0999/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy -21 4.67/2

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What will it take to win the Truist?

Length has always been an important asset at Quail Hollow.

Rory McIlroy ranked first for Driving Distance when winning this event for the fourth time two years ago and although Scheffler only ranked 31^st when winning the US PGA Championship here last year, Bryson DeChambeau in second ranked first and Jim Furyk, 20 years ago, is the only other course winner to rank worse than 28^th for Driving Distance.

The 2023 winner, Wyndham Clark, ranked 20^th for Driving Distance, the 2019 winner, Max Homa ranked 22^nd and James Hahn ranked 23^rd when he won here nine years ago but Justin Thomas ranked first at the US PGA Championship in 2017 and the two winners before Hahn in this event, McIlroy and J.B Holmes, also ranked number one for DD the week they won. Jason Day ranked 14^th in 2018, and Rory ranked second in 2021.

Scheffler also ranked 31^st for Driving Accuracy, Clark ranked 63^rd three years ago, and McIlroy ranked 59^th in 2024 and only 76^th in 2021. And Homa only ranked 45^th here seven years ago so distance is clearly more important than accuracy off the tee.

Greens In Regulation and Scrambling are the two main stats to concentrate on here.

Looking back, ten of the first 13 winners in this event here ranked inside the top-12 for GIR and the last three course winners have ranked first, second and six so it's clearly a very important stat.

The first three home in 2014 ranked inside the top-six for Scrambling and it was a similar story 12 months later with only one player inside the top-eight ranking worse than 16^th for Scrambling.

James Hahn only ranked 53^rd in 2016 and Scheffler only 43^rd last year but the five course winners before him, Jason Day, Max Homa, Rory, Clark and Rory again, have ranked second, second, first, sixth and second for Scrambling.

Putting has been key at Quail Hollow of late. Hahn ranked fifth for Putting Average when he won this event a decade ago, Justin Thomas ranked second for P.A when winning the US PGA here in 2017, Homa and Day both ranked first recently and the first six home in 2024 ranked eighth, fifth, ninth, 11^th, first and 50^th.

Rory only ranked 20^th in 2021 but just like Clark in 2023, he ranked third for Strokes Gained Putting, and the last two course winners, Rory again and Scheffler, have ranked fourth and second for P.A.

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Is There an angle in?

When staged at the Golf Club of Houston between 2003 and 2018, the Houston Open used to correlate very nicely with this event, but that tournament has moved to Memorial Park now.

Vijay Singh, Anthony Kim and J.B Holmes all won here at Quail Hollow and at the Golf Club of Houston and Houston winners Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and even D.A Points have come very close to taking this title as well but form at Riviera looks like our best angle in now.

The four-time Quail winner, Rory, was second at Riviera in February and the 2024 winner of the Genesis Invitational there, Hideki Matsuyama, was matched at as short as 1.9110/11 to win the US PGA Championship here in 2017.

When Max Homa won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in 2021, he became the third winner of that event in six years to have also won this event at Quail Hollow. Hahn and Holmes have also won both events and all three were matched at a triple-figure price before the off at Riviera. Holmes was matched at a high of 400.0399/1, Hahn was an unconsidered 600.0599/1 chance in 2015 and Homa was matched at a high of 120.0119/1. 

Holmes was an 85.084/1 chance when he won here 12 years ago and Homa and Hahn won here having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off so it's not like we're looking at three well-fancied players winning both events so that looks like a very interesting angle in.

Homa finished second at Riviera in 2021, two years after he'd won here, and we've seen three men win the Genesis multiple times in the last 20 years. Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott have both won it twice and Bubba Watson three times.

Mickelson and Watson have both finished second at Quail Hollow and Scott was third in 2006, so it's a very solid course correlation.

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Is there an identikit winner?

The roll of honour here is a bit of a mixed bag. 

Major winners David Toms, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Lucas Glover, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Wyndham Clark (who won the US Open after he'd won here) and Scheffler have all won here and we've seen several really top-class winners too, but this event has produced four separate results that have had us all scratching our heads.

The 2004 edition saw 200/1201.00 shots Joey Sindelar and Aaron Oberholser, playoff to decide the outcome, in 2013, 1000.0999/1 shot, Derek Ernst, beat 350.0349/1 chance, David Lynn, in extra time, 10 years ago, another player matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off, Hahn, beat 600.0599/1 shot, Roberto Castro, in a playoff, and as already stated, Homa was 1000.0999/1 when he won here seven years ago, with 140.0139/1 shot, Joel Dahman, the only other player to trade at odds-on.

Clark, who won the US Open a month after winning here was winning on the PGA Tour for the first time when he won here and he was matched at 300.0299/1 when the market first opened.

As many as three of the last 10 winners of this event have gone off at 1000.0999/1 so if you fancy a rank outsider here, don't be afraid to go for it. 

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Keep your eye on the US PGA Championship market?

We're off to Aronimink for the second major of the year next week - the US PGA Championship - and what happens this week will have a big bearing on the market there.

The defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, who isn't in the field this week, is the current favourite to win the US PGA Championship but Rory McIlroy is bound to shorten up if he has another great week here as he bids to win the event for a fifth time.

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Winner's position and price before round four

2025 - Played at Philadelphia Cricket Club)
2024 - Rory McIlroy - second , trailing by one 2.285/4
2023 - Wyndham Clark led by two 2.226/5
2022 - Played at TPC Potomac
2021 - Rory McIlroy tied second, trailing by two 3.55/2
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Max Homa tied for the lead with two others 9.617/2
2018 - Jason Day led by two 1.8810/11
2017 - Played at Eagle Point
2016 - James Hahn T3rd, trailing by two 16.015/1
2015 - Rory McIlroy led by four 1.132/15

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In-Play Tactics

A slow start can be overcome at Quail Hollow and being in front at halfway isn't necessarily a good thing.

The 2023 Truist winner, Wyndham Clark, sat tied for seventh and just two off the lead after the opening round and he was tied for the lead at halfway before going two clear with a round to go but he was just the second man to be leading or co-leading at halfway to go on to win here and the last two course winners were trailing by four and three strokes at halfway.

Tiger Woods was also tied for the lead at halfway here in 2007 but he's the only other leader or co-leader at halfway to win and 29 players have failed to convert a 36-hole lead or co-lead so halfway leaders are highly unlikely to represent value.

Scheffler was tied for 20^th and five off the lead in the US PGA Championship after round one last year and Justin Thomas sat tied for 44^th and six back after round one in the US PGA in 2017. Hahn and Castro (first and second in 2016) were five and six back after round one and Hahn still trailed by five in a tie for 13^th at halfway.

The two winners before Hahn both opened up with 70s and trailed by four and five strokes and yet they won with ease. And one or two winners have come from a very long way back.

McIlroy started slowly five years ago when he won the title for a third time, sitting tied for 73^rd and eight off the lead but he was only two back in fifth at halfway and that was a lot closer to the front than when he first took the title.

When he won here 16 years ago, having only just made the cut, he sat tied for 48th and nine off the lead at halfway and he still trailed by four after day three but incredibly, he went on to win by four!

A total of 23 men have led or co-led through three rounds here but only nine have gone on to win. 

Xander Schauffele, Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Webb Simpson, and Zach Johnson have all failed to convert a 54-hole lead here but the prize for the worst collapse goes to Sergio Garcia as he managed to give up a six-stroke advantage in 2005. 

Whether leading after rounds, one, two or three, this is not an easy place to make the running. 

If you're trading in-running, watch out for the tough finish. Anyone safely in the house will have an advantage over someone tied with them with the Green Mile still to play.

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Rory the obvious pick

I'm quite happy to keep things very simple and play the deserved favourite, Rory McIlroy.

This is his first start since his successful US Masters defence so there's a chance, he'll be a little rusty but he's so well suited to Quail Hollow that he's fairly priced at anything around the 6/17.00 mark.

In search of his fifth course win in 15 visits and with a relaxed mindset following his victory at Augusta, McIlroy is very much the man to beat and he's also worth chancing in the First Round Leader market at anything around 16/117.00.

He's only been tied for the lead here after round one twice previously, and not when he's gone on to win.

He finished 10^th in 2013 and eighth in 2021 after being tied for the lead after 18 holes.

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