The Punter's In-Play Blog: Major winner best equipped in Kentucky

• Rory still in front at the Renaissance

• Two chanced ahead of round four in Scotland

• Cone one clear in Kentucky

• Read my Open Championship preview here

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22:55 - July 15, 2023

After an early start to avoid the predicted thundery weather today, the Barbasol Championship is back on track after a soggy third round in Kentucky.

Relentless rain dogged the field throughout, but it didn't stop pre-event 120.0119/1 chance, Trevor Cone, firing a nine-under-par 63 to hit the front. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:50.

Trevor Cone -17 4.94/1
Vincent Norrman -16 4.03/1
Lucas Glover -16 4.47/2
Adrien Saddier -15 14.5
Jayden Schaper -14 23.022/1
Nathan Kimsey -14 25.024/1
Taylor Pendrith -13 23.022/1
Grayson Murray -13 36.035/1
-13 and 65.064/1 bar

We've only had four renewals of the Barbasol Championship at Keene Trace and what little evidence we have suggests that winning from off the pace here is going to be tough.

The first two course winners, Troy Merritt and Jim Herman, were both in front after three rounds and the last two winners, Seamus Power and Trey Mullinax, were inside the top-five and within three of the lead.

With the sun out, the course soft and the winds light, scoring is going to be low tomorrow and that should favour the frontrunners. There are three men clear of the remainder in the market and it would be a surprise to see anyone else take the title.

Winning this would be a huge deal for Adrien Saddier (alone in fourth) and the two men trailing by three strokes in fifth - Nathan Kimsey and Jayden Schaper. All three ply their trade on the DP World Tour with only limited success and it's hard to imagine them performing brilliantly under the pressure they'll no doubt feel.

Although he hasn't particularly impressed over the last two days, I'm going to stick with Lucas Glover, who I backed after round one.

He's finished both the second and third rounds nicely to keep on track and as a major champion (won the US Open in 2009), he should have the wherewithal to hold it together better than far less experience pair at the head of the market.

The 54-hole leader, Trevor Cone, was very impressive today after he hit the front and he looks one for the future but it's never easy to back up a low round and this is the first time that Norrman has entered the final round on the PGA Tour with a strong chance of victory.

He sat fourth and two off the lead with a round to go at the Byron Nelson Championship in May, but he was trading at 24.023/1 on that occasion and he fell to eighth on Sunday - beaten by four - and he finished second at the Rex Hospital Open on the Korn Ferry Tour in June last year after sitting second with a round to go.

They're two reasonable efforts and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see the talented 25-year-old Swede take the title but he's yet to win at any level and I'm happy to stick with Glover.

17:05 - July 15, 2023

Lowry looming as the weather worsens

The third round of the Scottish Open has been completed without any drama so the decision to kick the round off early has been vindicated and with the Open Championship, which I've previewed here, starting next Thursday, the organisers have taken what may well transpire to be a very sensible decision, to start early again tomorrow. They'll be playing in a U draw in three-balls with the leading trio teeing off at 08:57 UK time, weather permitting.

It's not great for TV audiences, especially in the States, but with the wind forecasted to blow consistently all day, and to gust up to 36 mph, a suspension in play at some stage can't be ruled out anyway so the fourth and final round may well stretch out throughout the day. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:00.

Rory McIlroy -13 2.727/4
Tom Kim -12 7.26/1
Tommy Fleetwood -11 8.27/1
Brian Harman -11 18.5
Scottie Scheffler -10 9.28/1
Shane Lowry -10 16.5
Byeong Hun An -10 40.039/1
Eric Cole -10 44.043/1
J.T Poston -10 48.047/1
Max Homa -9 44.0043/1
Harry Hall -9 130.0129/1
Tom Hoge -9 140.0139/1
Tyrrell Hatton -8 75.074/1
-8 and 170.0169/1 bar

Rory played some sublime golf on the front-nine today and he was matched at a low of just 1.454/9 but with a foul forecast and the slenderest of leads, he's short enough now at around 13/82.63 given frontrunners don't have a great recent record in the event.

We've seen four of the last six winners come from off the pace with a round to go and the two that did convert their two-stroke 54-hole leads, Xander Schauffele last year and Bernd Wiesberger in 2019, could have both very easily lost.

After birdies at the first two holes, Schauffele was matched in-running at just 1.351/3 but he's not the most reliable in-contention and after he'd dropped shots at six, seven and nine he drifted back out to 3.02/1 before regrouping to win by a stroke.

And in the first edition of the event here, Benjamin Hebert traded at a low of 1.021/50 in extra time before losing the playoff to Wiesberger having trailed by seven through 54 holes!

In the two editions here in-between the Wiesberger and Schauffele wins, both victors came from off the pace.

Although only three off the lead with a round to go, Min Woo Lee was a juicy 60.059/1 chance two years ago, and trailing by five, Aaron Rai was trading at around 95.094/1 before round four in 2020.

Rai hit 200.0199/1 when he fell even further back with a bogey at the second hole, but the dropped shot galvanised him into action and five birdies in his next six put him bang in-the-mix. He went on to win in extra time, beating one of this year's contenders - Tommy Fleetwood.

And in the two years before we switched to this venue, Rafa Cabrera Bello won from four back and Brandon Stone trailed by three with round to go before shooting 60 to win by four!

The poor weather is highly likely to result in a volatile leaderboard and the DP World Tour has been the place for off the pace winners just lately with the last three trailing by four, three and six shots. And the last two winners were both matched at huge triple-figure prices in-running on Sunday...

Daniel Hillier was matched at 500.0499/1 on Sunday before winning the British Masters by two strokes and Rasmus Hojgaard hit a high of 960.0959/1 last Sunday before beating Nacho Elvira in a playoff.

I managed to get a small bet matched on J.T Poston at 60.059/1, which looked fractionally big, and I've also played Shane Lowry at 16/117.00.

We know the Irishman will keep battling on when others a failing in the foul conditions, and it would be no surprise to see him still standing when the reast have fallen by the wayside but it's far from an easy event to predict given the in-running stats and the forecast.

With stormy weather lurking in Kentucky, we've had an early start in the States today too and the third round of the Barbasol Championship is already well underway and currently live on Sky Sports.

09:10 - July 15, 2023

A late finish to round two, an evening out for yours truly, and a very early start to round three of the Scottish Open have caught me on the hop so this will be the briefest of updates.

With poor weather forecasted, the tee times have been brought forward and the leader, Rory McIlroy, who's already been matched at a low of just 2.56/4, is just about to tee off!

Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood have made an early move in the very early benign conditions, but the wind is picking up now and we're in for a rollercoaster ride.

With two of my Find Me a 100 Winner selections - Ewen Ferguson and Nicolai Hojgaard - within three and four strokes respectively of McIlroy, and with yesterday's in-play pick, the evergreen Padraig Harrington, also only three adrift at halfway, I'm happy to sit on my hands today and see where we are after round three.

I was very tempted to lay the leader yesterday but with a busy weekend planned away from the golf, I've decided not to get too involved.

Rory does look vulnerable in front though. He's only converted one of his last seven 36-hole lead or co-leads and he isn't putting well this week.

Rory leads the field for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green but he's lost 3.25 strokes putting to the filed and he's missed nine of ten putts inside ten feet.

Over at the Barbasol Championship, the first-round leader, Lucas Glover, putted tentatively yesterday but he birdied his last two holes to clean up his card nicely and he heads into the weekend leading by two.

Glover trades at 4.03/1 this morning, just fractionally shorter than the 4.216/5 I took about him yesterday morning and again, I'm happy to leave the event alone for now and see how the land lies tomorrow morning.

10:10 - July 14, 2023

The second round of the Scottish Open is well underway and live on Sky and so far the wind hasn't got up.

The morning starters are making a move, with the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, and my in-play pick, Padraig Harrington, ticking along nicely.

I'll post a further update today if anything significant happens or I make another play but failing that, I'll take another look at halfway in the morning. For now, I'm concentrating on the Barbasol Championship, which I really didn't enjoy watching last night!

Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Andy Sullivan, ended the day on -4, tied for 24th and five off the lead but he was very frustrating to follow.

Playing some sensational stuff, he stood on the 10th tee on -4 after birdies at 5, 7, 8 and 9 but he hit such a bad shot off the tee on 10 that he had to reload.

To his credit, he made a three with his second ball but he then missed an eight-footer for birdie at 11 before three-putting from 20 feet on 14.

It felt like he turned a 64/65 into a 68 but it has to be accepted. He's a brilliant player on his day and this sort of test suits him perfectly but there's a reason why he was such a big price.

Frustration goes with the territory with these low-grade affairs, and I've got quite a strong feeling I've just signed up for some more...

Lucas Glover shows the way after round one, after a nine-under-par 63 that was aided considerably by this hole out eagle on the 12th and his lofty position is a cause of much annoyance.

Easy eagle for @Lucas_Glover_

He moves to T3 @BarbasolChamp. pic.twitter.com/t5Pnljsp5y

? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 13, 2023

I wrote the following about Glover in the preview on Tuesday afternoon...

"At 43, Glover is very much a veteran now, but he remains an elite ball striker and whenever he finds his touch on the greens, as he's done over the last fortnight, he's a force to be reckoned with.

"Although this has been a great tournament for outsiders, two of the seven winners have been well-fancied and if there's to be a third, it's likely to be Glover.

"He was backed at 30.029/1 when the market first opened and that's a fair price so if he drifts back out, I'll get him onside but 24.023/1 is a bit on the short side."

And that's a cause of much frustration because he drifted all the way out to 36.035/1 on Wednesday but I got so wrapped up with my Openresearch that I failed to get him onside.

I did however manage to Peter Kuest at 30.029/1 after the tournament had kicked off yesterday (Glover was back to trading at well below 30.029/1) but he was pretty hopeless. He got to -3 through 12 but crumbled when he three-putted from seven feet on the 14th.

So, what do I do now? I've mulled it over for much of the morning and I've decided to back Glover very modestly at 5.24/1.

I can't pretend that's a great price and I certainly wouldn't recommend piling in at that price.

Glover has won just once in 12 years and that was from off the pace (at the john Deere Classic in 2021) and he's zero from eight when leading or co-leading after round one, but that's where the negatives end.

He hasn't led after round one in 13 years so those stats can almost be disregarded now. He's highly likely to respond to the situation better now that he's a grizzled old vet and up with the pace is the place to be at this venue.

In four editions at Keene Trace, no winner has trailed by more than three strokes after day one and the four winners, and the beaten playoff protagonist, J.T Poston, have all been inside the top-four places after round one.

This is a very weak field, the opposition is far from stout, and Glover really should kick on with his early start this morning,

I'm kicking myself for not backing him on Wednesday, but I couldn't let him go unbacked given how well he's playing.

20:55 - July 13, 2023

With fantastic current form figures reading 7-7-9-2-7, Rory McIlroy began the week with only the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, ahead of him in the Scottish Open market but after a solid six-under-par opening round, Rory now heads the market - trading at just 4/15.00 on the exchange - despite trailing the early pacesetter, Byeong Hun An, by three.

An's putting has been so bad in the past that Sam Harrop claimed in this little ditty that he putts 'like he has glass eyes' but with a new long putter in play for the first time, the pre-event 230.0229/1 putted superbly today - ranking third for both Strokes Gained Putting and Putting Average.

Here's my latest golf song - with credit, of course, to the Beatles.

I think we all know @ByeongHunAn is one of the good guys. So if you happen to see this, Ben, please know that it comes from a place of love!

RTs & YouTube subscribes (https://t.co/gumjIjqmhy) appreciated pic.twitter.com/rikpiMAEE9

? Sam Harrop (@sam_golf) July 6, 2020

An is such a good sport that he responded to Sam's song in just the way you'd expect and the majority of golf fans will be cheering him over the next three days.

I had to do this for you @sam_golf pic.twitter.com/brLtCjjd3v

? Byeong Hun An (@ByeongHunAn) July 7, 2020

An's nine-under-par 61 equalled the course record set by Cameron Tringale 12 months ago and the 31-year-old Korean will be hoping he can better Tringale's performance. The American followed the opening 61 with rounds of 72, 74 and 70 to finish sixth.

An is highly unlikely to repeat today's heroics on the greens and the stats are against him too. The last first round leader to go on to win the Scottish Open was Johan Edfors at Loch Lomond all the way back in 2006.

Rory is the man to beat but given he was five-under-par through seven holes this morning and that he's already been matched at a low of 4.1, he could, and perhaps should, be closer to the lead.

The weather forecast has altered a number of times over the last couple of days, but if the latest predictions are to be believed, it looks highly likely that Rory and An will see the worst of the weather tomorrow afternoon and that's good news for the original favourite, Scottie Scheffler, who trails An by seven after a two-under-par 68 this afternoon.

With an early start, the world number one has a chance to make hay tomorrow before the wind picks up, but his putting woes are continuing, and he makes no appeal at all at less than 12/113.00.

After the first round, Scheffler ranks 134th for Strokes Gained Putting and his usually immaculate tee-to-green game wasn't at its scintillating best today either.

One man who did play brilliantly form tee-to-green today is Padraig Harrington and I was happy to chance him modestly at 120.0119/1.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, an early start can be overcome here so he's certainly not out of it in a tie for 16th on -3 and he tees off in the morning at 7:15.

The Barbasol Championship is well underway and live on Sky at nine and I'll take a little look at that one tomorrow.

Scottish Open Pre-Event Selection:
Patrick Cantlay @ 19.018/1
Matt Fitzpatrick @ 34.033/1

In-Play Picks:
Padraig Harrington @ 120.0119/1
Shane Lowry @ 17.016/1
J.T Poston @ 60.059/1

Barbasol Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Peter Kuest @ 30.029/1 (added after preview published)
Josh Teater@ 80.079/1

In-Play Pick
Lucas Glover @ 5.24/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 u Kurt Kitayama @ 160.0159/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 u Nicolai Hojgaard @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1.0 u Ewen Ferguson @ 380.0379/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2.0 u Andy Sullivan @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter