Scottish Open: Cantlay and Fitzpatrick chanced at the Renaissance

• Keep a close eye on the Open market

• Outsiders fare well at the Renaissance

• Read my Barbasol Championship preview here

---

Tournament History

The first two editions of the Scottish Open were in 1935 and 1936 but the third wasn't until 1972 and two years later the tournament disappeared again. It's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since 1986, though, and in addition to being the second of three Rolex Series events, the Scottish Open is now co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour.

The new link up has seen the field strength increase significantly. The world number two Jon Rahm, and LIV Tour players Cam Smith and Brooks Koepka, are the only players in the top-12 of the Official World Rankings not in the field this week.

The Scottish Open has preceded the Open Championship for many years and since 2011 it's been staged on a traditional links set-up to allow players to acclimatise to links golf prior to the Open.

Venue

The Renaissance Club, Dirleton, North Berwick

Course Details

Par 70, 7,237 yards

Stroke Average in 2022 - 71.73 yards

Situated next door to Muirfield and just two miles from the 2018 venue, Gullane, the Tom Doak designed Renaissance Club is hosting the Scottish Open for a fifth year in-a-row.

Having only opened in 2008, changes were made to the course just five years later when a land swap with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers enabled three new holes to be constructed. That connected the course to the coastline and the par four 13^th hole (the fourth hole in 2018), along the edge of the cliffs and high above the Firth of Forth, is spectacular.

The Club's website states: "Very little earth was moved in the construction of the course. The design embraced the original dunes landscape, typical of true links golf. Tom Doak and his team incorporated these contours into the course while leaving certain significant trees to enhance the beauty and challenges of play. The course has a truly distinctive style; windswept and open dunes land with trees coming into play on a truly coastal links course in Scotland."

The Renaissance Club was the venue for the 54-hole Scottish Senior Open in 2017, won by Paul Broadhurst in 13-under-par, and it first staged this event in 2019 when Bernd Wiesberger eventually saw off Benjamin Herbert after a protracted playoff.

Both men reached 22-under-par but in cooler, windier conditions, and following a lengthening of the course by around 200 yards after the 2019 edition, the 2020 playoff protagonists reached only 11-under-par.

Prior to 2020 renewal, the fairways were narrowed in places and there was a change to the layout with holes 1-7 being played as holes 10-16.

The seventh hole was a 561-yard par five up until last year but for the second year in-a-row, it plays as a par four measuring 505 yards.

Challenging conditions and the change to the seventh hole resulted in Xander Schauffele winning in just seven-under-par 12 months ago so we have quite a wide range of winning scores in just four years.

---

Weather Forecast

---

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 08:00 on Thursday

Last Eight Winners with Exchange Prices

• 2022 - Xander Schauffele -7 21.020/1
• 2021 - Min Woo Lee -18 330.0329/1 (playoff)
• 2020 - Aaron Rai -11 110.0109/1 (playoff)
• 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger -22 46.045/1 (playoff)
• 2018 - Brandon Stone -20 1000.0999/1
• 2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello -13 65.064/1 (playoff)
• 2016 - Alex Noren -14 55.054/1
• 2015 - Rickie Fowler -12 24.023/1

What Will it Take to Win the Scottish Open?

As always, previous links form is a huge plus, so the usual rules apply: look at form at this event over the last 11 years, the 2009, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2019 editions of the Irish Open, the 2019 British Masters from Hillside Links, the Open Championship, and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship for clues.

Links golf is unique and those events have all been staged on links courses.

Stats-wise, putting has been key. Both the playoff protagonists in 2019 putted well, ranking third and fifth for Putting Average. The 2019 winner, Rai, only ranked 29^th for Putting Average, but he was the only player in the top-five to rank outside the top-20 for PA.

The 2021 winner Min Woo Lee, ranked third for PA and Matt Fitzpatrick, who was beaten in the playoff, ranked first for Strokes Gained Putting. Last year's winner, Schauffele, ranked sixth for PA.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

The last Scotsman to win was Colin Montgomerie in 1999. We've seen winners from all corners of the globe since. Wiesberger was the first Austrian to take the title in 2019 and winners have represented as many as 13 different nationalities this century.

With as many as four separate winners (Ernie Els (twice), Retief Goosen, Tim Clark and Brandon Stone) the South Africans have fared the best this century. But three of the last 10 winners have been from the United States and, now that the tournament is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, we're highly likely to see more American winners.

The English have the next-best record. They've won three of the last 12 renewals and the first three in 2020 (Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert Rock) were all English.

Keep an eye on the Open Championship market

Given that eight of the last 12 Open winners have warmed up for the tournament in this event, anyone who plays well here will shorten up dramatically for next week's major. So if you fancy someone at Hoylake who's playing here this week, make sure you're keeping an eye on how they're doing because their price will collapse in the Open Championship market if they perform well.

The 2016 Open winner, Henrik Stenson, was matched at 40.039/1 to win the Open while this event was in progress, and he went off at around 25.024/1. The runner-up to Stenson, Phil Mickelson, was matched at 60.059/1 during the Scottish Open, before going off at 40.039/1 at Royal Troon, and those two had history...

In 2013, Mickelson was matched at 38.037/1 to win the Open before the Scottish Open started but he was down to 22.021/1 after winning this event. Stenson, who stumbled late on in that renewal, saw his odds cut from 70.069/1 to 50.049/1 during this event before going on to finish runner-up to Lefty at Muirfield.

Rickie Fowler halved in price for the Open Championship when he won the Scottish eight years ago.

Shane Lowry didn't play in this event four years ago but he did warm up for the Open by playing on a links track, finishing tied for 62^nd in the Irish Open at Lahinch two weeks before his victory at Portrush.

Collin Morikawa won the Open Championship at Royal St Georges after finishing 71^st here and last year's Open champ, Cameron Smith, found his groove in this event 12 months ago when finishing tied for 10^th. He had this to say after his victory at St Andrews:

"I started to feel really good with where my game was at last weekend at the Scottish Open, I had a really, really solid weekend."

Was playing here the difference last year? Rory McIlroy, who didn't play in this event, traded at odds-on before a lacklustre Sunday at the Home of Golf saw him slump to third, and it's interesting to see he's in the field this time, despite having only ordinary event form figures.

A great event for outsiders

Having won the JP MacManus Pro-Am on the Tuesday, Schauffele was a well-backed 20/121.00 shot 12 months ago.

Rolex Series events tend to go to high-class, well-fancied players but this tournament is something of an anomaly and it's been a super event for outsiders of late with three of the last five winners going off at a triple-figure price.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price pre-R4

• 2022 - Xander Schauffele led by two strokes 2.1411/10
• 2021 - Min Woo Lee T5 - trailing by three 60.059/1
• 2020 - Aaron Rai T10 - trailing by five 95.094/1
• 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger led by two strokes 1.991/1
• 2018 - Brandon Stone T11 - trailing by three 150.0149/1
• 2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello - trailing by four 34.033/1
• 2016 - Alex Noren led by two strokes 2.9215/8
• 2015 - Rickie Fowler - trailing by three 5.49/2

In-Play Tactics

Being up with the pace is often the place to be at links venues. Unless there's significant rain, the courses tend to get faster and firmer as the week goes on but that hasn't always been the case in this event.

We've seen four of the last six winners come from off the pace and it should really have been five from six. Although he led with a round to go, last year's winner Schauffele started slowly.

Schauffele led by two after 54 holes and, after birdies at the first two holes, he was matched in-running at just 1.351/3. But he's not the most reliable in-contention and after he'd dropped shots at six, seven and nine he drifted back to 3.02/1.

He did regroup and eventually win by a stroke, but he sat 11 off the lead and tied for 69^th after round one so he can't be described as an up with the pace winner. He made his big move on Friday, shooting 65 to move up into a tied for fourth at halfway.

Although only three off the lead with a round to go, Lee was a juicy 60.059/1 chance two years ago, having been matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running earlier in the week, and that was close to the lead compared to others.

Rai trailed by eight after shooting 70 on day one, he was matched for a few pounds at 1000.0999/1 in-running on Saturday, and he still trailed by five with a round to go.

Trading at around 95.094/1 before round four, Aaron Rai hit 200.0199/1 when he fell even further back with a bogey at the second hole but the dropped shot galvanised him into action and five birdies in his next six put him bang in-the-mix. He went on to win in extra time from the wrong side of the draw, one week after giving up a golden chance to win the Irish Open.

Wiesberger trailed by four in a tie for 29^th after round one in 2019 but he was tied for the lead at halfway after a 61 in round two. He was two clear with a round to go but it was very nearly a different story.

Benjamin Hebert traded at a low of 1.021/50 in extra-time before losing the playoff to Wiesberger and he'd trailed by six at halfway and by seven through 54 holes.

The two previous Scottish Open winners, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Brandon Stone, had both been seven adrift at halfway. Rickie Fowler trailed by five strokes eight years ago at the midway point and both Phil Mickelson (2013) and Jeev Milkha Singh (2012) trailed by four through 36 holes so a fast start is far from imperative.

Market Leaders

With current form figures reading a staggeringly consistent 5-2-3-3-3-4, the world number one Scottie Scheffler understandably heads the market.

Scheffler finished 12^th here in 2021 after a very slow start (sat tied for 113^th after round one) but he missed the cut 12 months ago with lacklustre rounds of 73 and 72.

Having putted deplorably for some time there have been signs of an improvement in that department of his game in each of last two outings.

Having recorded negative Strokes Gained Putting stats of -4.563 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and an almost unbelievable -8.503 at the Memorial Tournament, where he somehow finished third, he's produced positive figures at both the US Open and the Travelers Championship.

He's almost guaranteed to play immaculately from tee-to-green but having not played for three weeks, it's going to be interesting to see how he putts this week. It's a watching brief for me at a single-figure price.

Rory McIlroy's current form figures are almost as impressive as Scottie's and since finishing a disappointing 47^th at the Wells Fargo Championship - an event he loves - he's put up numbers reading 7-7-9-2-7 but, just like Scheffler, this is his first outing since the Travelers Championship.

McIlroy has a strangely poor record in the Scottish Open both before and after the tournament moved to the Renaissance Club and his event figures read MC-19-46-14-MC-34-MC.

It's clearly not a tournament he enjoys and 2008 and 2009 are the only years that he's played in the event consecutively.

Since finishing 14^th at Royal Aberdeen in 2014, where he led after the opening round, he's played just three times and only twice here, finishing a never-in-contention 34^th in 2019 before missing the cut two years ago.

It's never easy to defend a title and Schauffele has been a bit disappointing since he passed up a great opportunity to win the Wells Fargo. His current form figures read 18-24-10-19 and that includes his tenth-place finish in the US Open, where he led after round one.

The only other player trading at less than 20/121.00 is the world number four, Patrick Cantlay. He isn't the most resolute in-contention and, for that reason, he's not someone I back very often but he's in the portfolio this time around.

Selections

After an ordinary run of form since finishing third at The Heritage, Cantlay finished 14^th at the US Open after a slow start (he sat 49^th at halfway) and he finished fourth at the Travelers Championship last time out.

On both occasions, he putted really nicely, ranking fourth and fifth for Putting Average and he finished fourth here 12 months ago on his only previous visit to the Renaissance.

No bigger than 14/115.00 and as short as 10/111.00 on the High Street, he's a very fair price on the Exchange at 19.018/1 and I was more than happy to play him given the recent record of the Americans.

Given how well outsiders fare, I'll have at least one selection for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but my only other pick for now is last year's US open winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, who has course form figures reading 14-42-2-6.

The world number nine hasn't been setting the world alight since he won The Heritage in April but he loves this venue and he may just improve his form now that his unsuccessful US Open defence is out of the way.

He's drifted out ten points from an initial 24.023/1 on the Exchange and that's just too big to ignore for a player of his calibre at a venue that suits.

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

---

Read Scottish Open Each-Way Tips: Back 66/1 local hero MacIntyre