The Punter's In-Play Blog: Sensational Scheffler shoots clear at Quail

• Green Mile bites Bryson

• Scheffler leads by three through 54 holes

• Stats suggest Sheffler may be too short with 18 to play

09:15 - May 18, 2025

Bryson DeChambeau was matched at as low as 3.211/5 to win the US PGA Championship yesterday afternoon after he'd played his first 15 holes of round three in five-under-par.

Leading a charging Davis Riley and the halfway leader, Jhonnatan Vegas, by a stroke, DeChambeau looked like the most likely man to lift the Wannamaker Trophy, but he played the notoriously tough finishing three holes at Quail Hollow, named the Green Mile, in three-over-par.

In contrast, Scottie Scheffler played his final five holes of round three in five-under-par and he's far and away the most likely winner with 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:10.

Scottie Scheffler -11 1.271/4
Alex Noren -8 24.023/1
J. T Poston -7 50.049/1
Davis Riley -7 60.059/1
Jon Rahm -6 23.022/1
Si Woo Kim -6 65.064/1
Jhonattan Vegas -6 160.0159/1
Bryson DeChambeau -5 30.029/1
-5 and 120.0119/1 bar

Scheffler is the 121^st player to take a three-stroke lead into the final round of a 72-hole stroke play event on the PGA Tour this century and he's bidding to become only the 65^th to convert.

The last man to lead by three, Joel Dahmen, bogeyed his last three holes in round four to lose the Corales Puntacana Championship by a stroke at the end of April but all that demonstrates is just how different golf events can be.

The Corales is a weak tournament played in the same week as the RBC Heritage, and to compare the data there to here doesn't make a lot of sense.

The stats suggest anyone leading a PGA Tour event by three should be trading at just a shade of odds-on, but Scottie Scheffler isn't just anyone and it's very hard to see him failing from here.

Scheffler gave up a one-stroke 54 hole lead at the Houston Open back in 2021 and he was beaten in a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2022, having led by two with 18 to play, but he successfully converted a three-stroke lead to win his first major - the 2022 US Masters - and he's gone on to win on each of the last six occasions that he's held a clear lead through 54 holes.

It's very difficult to imagine anything but a victory for the world number one but I certainly don't want to back him at such short odds, and I can see why he's been drifting so far today.

Only two of the last eight winners at Quail Hollow were in front after 54 holes and of the 23 men to have led or co-led through three rounds at Quail Hollow, only eight have gone on to win.

The prize for the worst Quail collapse goes to Sergio Garcia who managed to give up a six-stroke 54-hole advantage here 20 years, so anyone wanting to lay the leader may well get a good run for their money.

07:40 - May 17, 2025

The first-round leader, Jhonnatan Vegas, is still in front at the US PGA Championship but he looked like leading by more as he played the 18^th hole yesterday morning.

Following an understandably nervy start, the Venezuelan settled down nicely and after a bogey at the second, he played his next 15 holes in four-under-par.

Matched at a low of 6.86/1, he found the fairway on the tough 18^th finishing hole, but he hit a poor third shot from the greenside bunker before missing for bogey from three feet.

It was a disappointing way to end the day and he's now only two clear when he could have been up by four. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:30.

Jhonnatan Vegas -8 14.527/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -6 13.525/2
Si Woo Kim -6 17.533/2
Matthieu Pavon -6 48.047/1
Scottie Scheffler -5 3.39/4
Max Homa -5 22.021/1
Robert Macintyre -4 38.037/1
Denny McCarthy -4 55.054/1
Ryan Fox -4 60.059/1
J.T Poston -4 80.079/1
Alex Smalley -4 95.094/1
Sam Stevens -4 95.094/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -4 95.094/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout -4 120.0119/1
Ryan Gerard -4 120.0119/1
Garrick Higgo -4 150.0149/1
Bryson DeChambeau -3 10.09/1

Selected others
Tony Finau -3 75.074/1
Aaron Rai -3 85.084/1
Jon Rahm -2 30.029/1
Viktor Hovland -2 55.054/1
Tommy Fleetwood -2 60.059/1
Joaquin Niemann -1 80.079/1
Rory McIlroy +1 40.039/1

-3 and 100.099/1 bar

Although he trails by three strokes, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, dominates the market but the championship is still wide open.

Max Homa and Si Woo Kim, who both shot seven-under-par 64s yesterday, and Frenchman, Matthieu Pavon, who shot 65, have demonstrated perfectly just how much ground can be made up at Quail Hollow and the leaderboard could easily look completely different tomorrow.

Pavon moved up 44 places yesterday, Kim 58 and Homa 68, and as Rory proved way back in 2010, it's possible to win at Quail Hollow from miles back.

Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow:

2010
Made cut on number at +1
Was 9 back of 40-something Billy Mayfair, won

2025
Makes cut on number at +1?
9 back of Vegas (age 40)...?

*ducks*

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) May 16, 2025

Justin Thomas was inside the top ten at halfway in the US PGA Championship here in 2017, but he trailed by five and Rory is far from the only winner to come from way off the pace at halfway.

A year before McIlroy won his first PGA Tour title here in 2010, Sean O'Hair won here having sat tied for 25^th and five off the lead and other winners have trailed by five and six strokes at halfway too so there's a long way to go yet.

Scheffler is clearly the man to beat and odds of around 9/43.25 are perfectly fair but I'm going to chance a couple at bigger odds who have both tasted victory at Quail previously.

Max Homa will do well to back up yesterday's 64 and he came into the event woefully out of form, but he's clearly found something on a return to a venue that he's won at previously.

So bad was Homa's form that his longtime caddie and friend, Joe Greiner, abandoned him just before the US Masters but the surprising split appears to have inspired the six-time PGA Tour winner, who was once as high as fifth in the Official World Rankings.

Homa could very easily drift back into the pack today but with Quail numbers reading MC-1-MC-8-8, I'm happy to take a small chance at 22.021/1 and I'm also happy to have a tiny wager on the 2023 US Open champ, Wyndham Clark, who like Homa, won his first PGA Tour title at Quail.

Tied for 36^th and seven off the lead, Clark has plenty to do over the weekend, but he won the AT&T Pebble Beach over 54 holes last year having trailed by nine after round one and by six with 18 to play so he knows how to play catch up and he shouldn't be trading at odds of almost 300.0299/1.

09:50 - May 16, 2025

Round one of the 107^th US PGA Championship is all done and dusted, and it's been a strange start to the year's second major.

The US Masters champ, Rory McIlroy, who has four previous victories at this week's venue, Quail Hollow, just edged the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, at the head of the market before the off and he shortened up to 4/15.00 when he birdied his opening hole yesterday morning (the par five 10^th) but that was as good as it got for Rory and his backers.

After an uncharacteristically poor day off the tee, Rory posted a three-over-par 74 to sit tied for 98^th and he's now trading at 27.026/1.

Playing alongside Rory, the defending champ, Xander Schauffele, and Scheffler, had plenty to complain about afterwards.

All three men double-bogeyed the difficult par four 16^th hole and whilst Rory's six was due to another poor drive, Schauffele and Scheffler both found water with their approaches after great drives, and neither man was happy with the decision not to implement lift, clean and place on the rain-socked fairways.

"I don't know, we had to aim right of the grandstands probably. I'm not sure," Schauffele said. "I aimed right of the bunker and it whipped in the water and Scottie whipped it in the water, as well."

"I understand how a golf purist would be, 'Oh, play it as it lies,'" Scheffler said. "But I don't think they understand what it's like literally working your entire life to learn how to hit a golf ball and control it and hit shots and control distance, and all of a sudden due to a rules decision that is completely taken away from us by chance.

"In golf, there's enough luck throughout a 72-hole tournament that I don't think the story should be whether or not the ball is played up or down. When I look at golf tournaments, I want the purest, fairest test of golf, and in my opinion, maybe the ball today should have been played up."

Schauffle and Scheffler were far from the only two to question the PGA of America's decision but to their credit, they both knuckled down to smarten up their cards.

Schauffele's double at six was his last drop of the day and he posted a one-over-par 72 to sit tied for 60^th and Scheffler birdied two of his last three holes to record a two-under-par 69. He sits tied for 20^th and he's the man to beat according to the market.

It looked for much of the day as though 1000.0999/1 chance, Ryan Gerard, would end the day in front and he was matched at a low of 1.21/5 in the first-round leader market before he bogeyed the last two holes to post five-under.

Fellow 1000.0999/1 chance, Cam Davis, was then matched at 1.330/100 to lead after round one but he bogeyed his final hole (the ninth) to fall back alongside Gerard, but both men were subsequently caught and passed late on by another huge longshot, Jhonnatan Vegas, who birdied five of his last six holes to post a seven-under-par 64.

The Venezuelan was matched at as high as 460.0459/1 to lead after round one and having been a 1000.0999/1 chance before the off, he's still a 32.031/1 chance to win, despite leading by two!

Should Vegas kick on and win from here without being headed he'd be the fourth wire-to-wire winner of the US PGA Championship in ten years but he's been tied for the lead after round one six times previously without winning and on the only previous occasion he's held a clear advantage after 18 holes (led the 2019 Cognizant Classic by two), he finished tied for 16^th.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, a slow start can be overcome at Quail Hollow, so patience is required at this stage, but I have had a small play on Nico Echavarria at 160.0159/1.

The Colombian has been in fair form all year and he's possibly being overlooked at such a big price given he's only four off the lead.

Pre-Event Pick:
Rory McIlroy @ 6.411/2

In-Play Picks:
Nico Echavarria @ 160.0159/1
Max Homa @ 22.021/1
Wyndham Clark @ 280.0279/1

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