The Punter's Debrief: Scheffler continues to drift in the Open Championship market after Tom Kim's victory in the Scottish Open

---

09:35 - July 13, 2026 - Tom Kim 54/1 to win the Open after claiming the spoils in Scotland

The 90.089/1 pre-event chance, Tom Kim, has comfortably won the Scottish Open by two strokes over the 2021 winner, Min Woo Lee. A couple of home nations favourites - the 2024 winner, Robert MacIntryre, and the 2021 runner-up, Matt Fitzpatrick - were four adrift in a tie for third alongside Keita Nakajima and Johnny Keefer.

Kim's six-under-par 64 in round four was matched only by the recent Travelers Championship winner, Viktor Hovland, and by Rory McIlroy.

Unfortunately Rory endured an awful third round to fall out of contention, having been matched at just 2.265/4 as early as Friday.

Rory's fourth round was 10 strokes better than his third but with Scottie Scheffler missing the cut at the Renaissance, the 2014 Open champion is now only half a point behind the world number one at the head of the Betfair Exchange Open Championship market.

Scheffler is hanging on to favouritism at 9.417/2, having been matched at as short as 5/16.00, with Rory currently a 9/110.00 chance to win at Royal Birkdale.

The English pair of Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood are both trading at 20.019/1 and the Scottish Open winner, Kim, who finished third behind Wyndham Clark and Sam Burns at last month's US Open, is now a 55.054/1 chance.

Over at the ISCO Championship, pre-event 46.045/1 chance, Steven Fisk, beat 44.043/1 shot, Taylor Pendrith, who was matched at a low of 1.251/4 in a playoff, with the 29-year-old American claiming his second PGA Tour title at the third extra hole.

Fisk who won the Sanderson Farms Championship in October last year, was a 7.613/2 chance when he'd sat tied for third with 18 holes to play, two strokes behind the 54-hole leader, Lucas Glover, who shot a one-over-par 71 to finish tied fifth, having been matched in running at a low of 1.784/5.

---

10:25 - July 12, 2026 - Fitzpatrick the favourite with 18 to play

After fog caused lengthy delays in play at the Scottish Open on Saturday, the third round has only just finished this morning, so here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:15.

Matt Fitzpatrick -12 4.77/2
Robert MacIntyre -12 5.69/2
Min Woo Lee -12 6.25/1
Chris Gotterup -11 7.413/2
Tom Kim -11 13.012/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -11 14.527/2
Wyndham Clark -10 15.014/1
Johny Keefer -10 42.041/1
Keita Nakajima -10 55.054/1
Kevin Roy -10 70.069/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -9 80.079/1
Danny Willett -9 180.0179/1
-8 and 150.0149/1 bar

As highlighted in the preview, three of the last four winners here have been leading or tied for the lead and the 2024 winner, Robert MacIntyre, sat solo second with 18 to play but the 2020 winner, Aaron Rai, trailed by four and was a 95.094/1 chance with a round to go and Min Woo Lee was a 60.059/1 chance 12 months later when he trailed by three with 18 to play.

The leaderboard is stacked with quality former winners and course specialists and it's extremely likely that at least one of the 10 players leading or within a couple of strokes of the lead will go low enough to hold any off the pace chargers at bay but quite who that might be is very difficult to call.

Having backed Wyndham Clark before the off, and the defending champ, Chris Gotterup, at halfway, I've got a couple of contenders onside already but I 've also now added the two players tied for 11^th and three back.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, who won the Australian Open in December, also finished second at the Qatar Masters and third at the DP World Tour Championship last year, so it's no surprise to see he's enjoying the Scottish links this week.

All three of those events are played out on exposed layouts where links exponents shine and the Dane has an off the pace victory on his CV already.

He won the German Challenge on the HotelPlanner Tour two years ago having trailed by six with 18 to play.

Danny Willett hasn't won since the 2021 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but he looks a huge price.

He's been up with the pace for seven of his eight DP World Tour titles but he won the US Masters by three strokes a decade ago having trailed by three with 18 to play.

Over at the ISCO Championship, Lucas Glover leads by two with 18 to play and he's trading at around 5/23.50 but it might be worth taking a chance on a few players from off the pace.

Last year's edition was the first at this year's venue, Hurstbourne Country Club, and the winner, William Mouw, came from miles back.

Playing in just his 20^th event on the PGA Tour, Mouw matched at 1000.0999/1 with 18 to play when he trailed the leader, Paul Peterson, by seven strokes, but he soon got his skates on in round four, setting the tone with birdies at the first three holes.

Mouw went on to post a quite brilliant bogey-free nine-under-par 61 two hours ahead of the leaders and he never really looked like being caught, eventually winning by a stroke.

Trailing by only four strokes this time around, the defending champ is an interesting candidate at around 30.029/1 and I've chanced him and Rafael Campos at a big price too.

Campos shot 62 in round three of the Bermuda Championship when he won his only PGA Tour title two years ago so we know he's capable of a low round and I thought he was a fair price given he sits alongside Mouw in tied eighth.

---

21:10 - July 10, 2026 - Past winners dominate at the Renaissance

The second round of the ISCO Championship is still ongoing and the action's live on Sky Sports in the UK but I'm going to leave that one alone for now and concentrate on the week's main event, the Scottish Open, where three players are tied for the lead after 36 holes.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 21:00.

Rory McIlroy -9 3.39/4
Tom Kim -9 9.89/1
Jordan Smith -9 15.529/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -8 7.613/2
Min Woo Lee -8 13.525/2
Chris Gotterup -7 15.014/1
Robert MacIntyre -7 17.533/2
Victor Perez -7 46.045/1
Sudarshan Yellamaraju -7 75.074/1
Keita Nakajima -7 100.099/1
Nicolai Von Dellinghausen -7 200.0199/1
Joost Luiten -7 250.0249/1
Wyndham Clark -6 25.024/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -6 32.031/1
-6 and 75.074/1 bar

Given four of the last five Scottish Open winners are inside the top 12 at halfway, it's fair to say that course form stands up very well here but that just makes our job even harder with 36 holes to play. And it's hard enough looking at the in-ruuning trends...

The 2023 winner, McIlroy, is the man to beat and given he finished fourth when defending and second last year, after being matched in-running at a low of 1.635/8, it's very difficult to imagine he won't be a factor come Sunday evening, but being in front at this stage isn't always ideal.

Last year's winner, Chris Goitterup, who's attempting to become the first player to defend the title, was two clear 12 months ago after a sensational 62 in round two and Rory led by a stroke in 2023 but three clear 36-hole leaders have been beaten since the event moved to the Renaissance Course in 2019.

Bernd Wiesberger was tied at the top at halfway in 2019 and he was two clear through 54 holes, but he was lucky to win in the end with the runner-up, Benjamin Herbert, being matched at as low as 1.021/50 in running.

Herbert had been six back at halfway and three course winners have been outside the top 10 at this stage.

The 2020 winner, Aaron Rai, was eight adrift and tied 28^th at this stage, Min Woo Lee, the 2021 winner, was six back and tied for 23^rd at halfway and Robert MacIntyre trailed by four at this stage two years ago, so this is still a wide-open event, although the weather may help the leading pack.

Poor weather, and windy weather in particular, can create a volatile leaderboard but light winds and a bit of rain are predicted tomorrow and if it pans out that way, we can expect some low scores.

With 17 players separated by just three strokes, it's hard to see anyone from too far back making a charge this year.

If the conditions are good, and the rain arrives to take the sting out of the course, those in the front rank now will hold a big advantage and I suspect we need to be concentrating on the leaders.

Rory is a perfectly fair price at around 9/43.25 but I've gone against the trends and backed the defending champ, Gotterup, who did us a favour last week when winning the John Deere Classic from off the pace with 18 to play.

Understandably given his victory on Sunday, Gotterup took his time to get going this week and he was one-over-par after nine holes on Thursday morning, but he's improved nicely since, although he's bogeyed his final hole on each of the first two days.

The rough is a little thick this year so finding the fairways is crucial and putting is always important in this event.

On day one, Gotterup ranked 115^th for Driving Accuracy, 76^th for Putting Average and 121^st for Putts Per GIR. In round two he ranked 11^th, 20^th and 14^th for those three important metrics.

With three PGA Tour titles already in the bag in 2026, Gotterup is a reliable performer in the mix and trailing by two, he's a fair price at 14/115.00 on the Betfair Exchange.

---

14:40 - July 10, 2026 - Open champion misses the cut in Scotland

With less than a week to go before the Open Championship begins, it's inevitable that attention starts to drift towards Royal Birkdale and the big story at this week's main event - the Scottish Open - is that the defending Open champion, Scottie Scheffler, is going to miss the cut at the Renaissance Course.

The world number one had made it through to the weekend in each of his last 78 PGA Tour events and his last missed cut was at the St Jude Championship in August 2022, so it's a sizable surprise to see him miss out.

He's still the man to beat next week according to the Open Championship win market but, having been matched at as low as 4/15.00, he's now out to 8.415/2.

"I got off to a tough start and then on the back nine I didn't feel like I was hitting it close enough to give myself enough opportunities. I think that's what it really comes down to. I got off to a poor start and didn't really hit it close enough to give myself a bunch of looks... pic.twitter.com/Sqk3LkZ3DO

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 10, 2026

A pair of Englishman, Jordan Smith, on -9, and Matt Fitzpatrick, on -8, show the way but Rory McIlroy is within three with the vast majority of his second round still to play.

At the time of writing, Rory is trading at around 5/23.50 but I'll be back later today or first thing in the morning with a detailed look at the state of play at halfway.

Given the last four Open winners have finished 10^th, 12^th, 15^th and eighth in the Scottish Open, it's well worth keeping an eye on the Open market.

If you want your appetite whetting further for the year's final major next week, take a look at Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here and Matt Cooper's Open Championship 2026 Player Guide here.

---

Bookmark Betting.Betfair for golf betting tips every week

---