The Punter's Debrief: Gotterup moves in Open contention after claiming the spoils at Deere Run

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15:20 - July 6, 2026 - Gotterup in the frame for the Open Championship after another sensational victory on the PGA Tour

As detailed below, the John Deere Classic looked a tough tournament to predict with 18 to play but it soon became apparent that Sunday morning's in-play fancies, Ryo Hisatsune and Chris Gotterup, both had a decent chance of winning.

Gotterup played his first five holes in four-under-par and Hisatsune, who was matched at as short as 7.26/1, birdied the first two holes but they weren't the only two to go low early.

Ben Kohles also got off to a flyer, playing the first eight holes in five-under-par, and he looked the most likely winner for much of the final round, attracting money on the Betfair Exchange as low as 1.422/5.

Gotterup kept the pedal to the metal though and when he rolled in a birdie putt on the par five 17^th from 14 feet to get to nine-under-par for the day and 20-under-par for the tournament, he looked the most likely winner.

The market flip-flopped when Kohles birdied the par three 16^th to draw alongside Gotterup but he failed to birdie 17 before disaster struck at the 72^nd hole.

Disaster strikes on the 72nd hole.

Co-leader Ben Kohles approach shot finds the water @JDClassic.

CBS pic.twitter.com/45XGB8PXYK

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 5, 2026

Gotterup has now won three times on the PGA Tour this year and he's up to number seven in the Official World Rankings.

Gotterup is currently trading at 28.027/1 to defend his Scottish Open title at the Renaissance Club this week and he's now a 42.041/1 chance to win the Open Championship next week.

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Long odds-on chance falls shot in Munich

Over on the DP World Tour, the pre-event 100.099/1 chance, Hennie Du Plessis, looked far and away the most likely winner of the BMW International when he rolled in his third birdie in-a-row at the 15^th hole on Sunday that saw him ease two clear of fellow South African, Michael Hollick, and four clear of the remainder.

He was still two clear of the pre-event 1000.0999/1 chance, Hollick, as he stood on the par three 17^th tee and he momentarily went three clear when Hollick bogeyed the 16^th hole just before Du Plessis bogeyed the 17^th.

Still two clear with just the par five 18^th to play, Du Plessis was matched at a low of 1.051/20 but Hollick responded immediately to the dropped shot at 16 by playing his tee-shot at 17 to just six feet.

The 39-year-old veteran, Hollick, who came into the event with current form figures reading MC-MC-7-MC-MC-28-MC, rolled in his birdie putt at 17 moments after Du Plessis had played his second from a fairway bunker at 18 and it was game on.

Du Plessis had looked to have hit a decent drive on the 18^th, a hole he'd played in four-under-par over the first three days, but after it had ran into the bunker, he played a terrible second shot that hit the face of the bunker and he was lucky that it finished in a decent position on the left of the fairway and not in the ditch that crossed it.

Du Plessis' third left him with a 14-foot birdie putt that he missed but with Hollick needing a birdie four to tie him, Du Plessis was still the most likely winner.

Horlick's drive cleared the water by about six feet before his excellent second shot left him with a 20-footer for eagle that he rolled in to claim the spoils.

The putt that sealed it for Michael Hollick #BMWInternationalOpen pic.twitter.com/FNWodhBbY3

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) July 5, 2026

It was a quite brilliant finish but it was impossible not to feel sorry for Du Plessis and his backers.

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11:30 - July 5, 2026 - Hisatsune and Gotterup fancied from off the pace

Despite a short weather break late in the day on Saturday, the John Deere Classic is on track, and the third round is all done and dusted so here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:20.

Lee Hodges -16 5.24/1
Lucas Glover -16 5.49/2
Jackson Suber -15 6.411/2
Ben Kohles -15 6.411/2
Zac Blair -15 9.28/1
Doug Ghim -14 11.010/1
Zach Johnson -13 44.043/1
-12 and 55.054/1 bar

The market is struggling to split the two leaders and I'm not surprised.

With a round to go, the 2021 winner, Lucas Glover, ranks second for Scrambling and fifth for Putting Average and he's the only man in the field to rank inside the top-10 for those two metrics at Deere Run.

He came from four back to claim the title five years ago but he's been pretty good from the front too.

He won the Wyndham Championship by two strokes in 2023 having been tied for the lead through 54 holes and he won the St Jude Championship a week later having led by a stroke.

The man alongside him, Lee Hodges, won the Portland Open on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 having been tied for the lead with a round to go but he finished third in The American Express in 2022, beaten by three, having been tied for the lead with 18 to play.

He won the 3M Open on the PGA Tour in 2023 by seven strokes having led through 54 holes, but he was already five in front after three rounds.

If I had to pick one of the two, I'd follow the market and favour the narrow favourite, Hodges, but given three of the last eight John Deere Classci winners have trailed by four with a round to go, I'm happy to chance a couple of long-shots from off the pace.

On the strength of his top six finishes at the two courses that appear to correlate nicely with Deere Run - Colonial and Copperhead - Ryo Hisatsune was a long-shot selection before the off last year when he finished only tied for 60^th but trailing by four with a round to go, he looks an interesting candidate at a juicy price this year.

And in addition to backing Hisatsune, I've also had a small bet on the prolific Chris Gootterup, who will be defending his Scottish Open title next week.

Since his victory in Scotland, he's also won the Sony Open and the Phoenix Open this year and he came from outside the top 10 and four back to claim the spoils in Phoenix.

Gotterup has plenty of traffic to pass form tied 12^th and five back but he's a class act that knows how to win.

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08:40 - July 5, 2026 - Two tied at the top at the BMW International Open

I'll be back shortly with a look at the state of play at the John Deere Classic but with play brought forward at the BMW International Open, in attempt to avoid the forecasted thunderstorms later in the day, I need to start there.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:30.

Bernd Wiesberger -13 3.259/4
Michael Hollick -13 6.86/1
Carlos Ortiz -12 6.25/1
Hennie Du Plessis -11 10.519/2
Thomas Rosenmueller -11 16.531/2
Oihan Guillamoundeguy -10 24.023/1
Jack Senior -10 60.059/1
-9 and 24.023/1 bar

The leaders tee off at 9:00 in the UK, just as the live coverage on Sky starts so apologies about the poor timing of the update.

The pre-event favourite, Joaquin Neimann, is already making a move and the man who heads the market is the man I backed before the off last week in Italy when he missed the cut, Bernd Wiesberger, who's tied for the lead with South Africa's Michael Hollick, but the one I like is Carlos Ortiz, who's alongside the front two in the final three-ball.

The Mexican, who plays on the LIV Tour, is no bigger than 4/15.00 on the High Street, so he's a very fair price at 6.25/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

A winner across the globe, he's tasted success on the PGA Tour, at the 2020 Houston Open, and he's been as high as 44 in Official World Rankings.

He won on the Asian Tour in Macau as recently as March this year, when he shot 64 in round four to go from tied for the lead to three clear, and he looks nicely priced at around 5/16.00.

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20:20 - July 3, 2026 - Could it be a case of beware the injured golfer in Germany?

The second round of the John Deere Classic is well underway on the PGA Tour, and the afternoon wave are trying to pass the clubhouse leader, pre-event 65.064/1 chance, Jackson Suber.

At the time of writing, the 2021 winner, Lucas Glover, who was a 250.0249/1 chance before the off, is about to go two clear with a tap in birdie at the par three 16^th (his seventh hole of the day) and he's now trading at just 4/15.00 on the Betfair Exchange.

Playing the back-nine first in round two, my pre-event pick, Tom Kim, was matched at as low as 13.525/2 today when he gave himself a look for eagle from inside 15 feet on the par five second hole (his 11^th hole of the round) but after settling for a birdie four to get to four-under-par for the day and eight-under-par for the tournament, he played his last seven holes in one-over.

I'm leaving this event alone for now and I'll revisit it on Sunday morning when there's 18 holes to play as I won't get a chance to update the blog tomorrow at all.

I'm doing a 32-mile charity walk which will take me all day and a bit more besides, but I have had an in-play wager in the BMW International Open on the DP World Tour.

Pre-event 100.099/1 chance, Hennie Du Plessis, leads at halfway on 10-under-par and he's the current favourite on the Betfair Exchange at a shade over 6/17.00 but he makes little appeal in a tournament that looks wide open.

Last year's winner, Dan Brown, sat as close as third, trailing by three, at halfway and two of the last four winners were leading at halfway but Ernie Els is the only other halfway leader to go on to win in the last 12 editions held here and it's not easy place to front run.

The 2022 winner, Thriston Lawrence, was tied for 15^th and five back at halfway, and we've seen numerous victors trailing by four and five strokes, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sergio Garcia have both lost playoffs here having trailed by six, Anders Hansen lost in extra time having trailed by eight after 36 holes and Russell Claydon win the event back in 1998 having trailed by seven.

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Penge the pick at halfway

With all that in mind, I was happy to play the classy Englishman, Marco Penge, who's playing in his first event since he missed the cut at the US PGA Championship in May.

Penge, who won three times on the DP World Tour last year, sits tied for 19^th so he has plenty of traffic to pass but he's only four off the lead and he's capable of going super low over the weekend.

Penge has been suffering with vertigo-like symptoms on and off since he picked up a viral infection in Dubai back in November last year so he's given himself plenty of time off to recover and he sounded quite positive before the off this week.

"I'm feeling a lot better than when I stopped playing," he said on the eve of his return to competitive golf.

"I wouldn't say I'm 100%, but definitely 90% of the way there. At least know what was going on and have got some things in place if I start to feel a little worse again. I'm happy to be back.

"I had several scans and appointments with specialists, and everything was kind of coming back normal, which is good. But at the same time, I wanted an answer to what was going on.

"But they think it was a vestibular ocular deficiency where basically your eyes and ears work together so when I turned my head there would be a delayed focus of my eyes, so it made me feel really dizzy.

"I thought it was vertigo at the time when I stopped. That's what was assumed and I've got some extra medication which is helping so yeah, it's nice to be feeling more myself."

It's obviously a bit risky to play someone with health issues but he sounded confident after the pro-am and he's started quite nicely.

"After playing today in the Pro-Am, I was really impressed with myself and really pleased with how I played.

"I feel like it's probably the best I've played all year and the most comfortable I felt all year.

"I mean, I could come out and be up there in contention, but I'm fully aware that it could also go the other way, so we'll see."

He'll be happy to be on the fringes of contention, and he won't be backing off tomorrow.

He's generally a 22/123.00 shot on the High Street so I was happy to take a small chance at 26.025/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

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