The Punter's De-brief: Classy Koivun is off the mark in just his third professional start

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08:40 - July 27, 2026 - Koivun holds his nerve to claim his first title

Playing in just his third PGA Tour event as a pro, the 21-year-old phenom, Jackon Koivun, led the 3M Open by three with 18 to play and he was fairly weak in the market before he teed off on Sunday.

Trading at around 1.84/5 after his third round 61 on Saturday, and generally a 1.845/6 chance throughout the day on Sunday, he drifted out to around 1.9620/21 before he began his final round but those that took him on, me included, soon knew their fate.

With the course averaging almost a shot and half under-par for the whole field on Saturday, and with only three holes averaging over-par, Koivun knew he had to keep the pedal to the metal in round four to claim his maiden title and he didn't let his supporters down, playing his first six holes of round four in three-under-par.

The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, put in a charge on the back nine, and he signed for an eight-under-par 63, but Koivun was always in control and after birdies at 12 and 16, he went on to win comfortably and impressively by three strokes.

Koivun only turned pro at the start of the month but he's already up to 73^rd in the Official World Rankings and it's fairly obvious he's going to climb a lot higher and quickly too.

The crowd reminded Jackson Koivun all day that "Scottie's comin' ... Scottie's comin.'"

Koivun staved off Scheffler's 63 with a bogey-free 66 for his first TOUR victory @3MOpen. pic.twitter.com/M0vXxj3S9H

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 26, 2026

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10:10 - July 26, 2026 - Koivun up by three with 18 to play

The 36-hole leader of the 3M Open, Michael Kim, understandably failed to back up his sensational 59 on Friday morning in round three and after a lacklustre one-under-par 71, he's gone from three clear to five back and it's the 21-year-old, Jackson Koivun, that now leads by three with 18 to play.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:00.

Jackson Koivun -20 1.845/6
Ben Kohles -17 9.89/1
Emiliano Grillo -17 10.09/1
Michael Brennan -16 17.016/1
Chandler Phillips -16 30.029/1
Michael Kim -15 42.041/1
Billy Horschel -15 44.043/1
Denny McCarthy -15 55.054/1
Scottie Scheffler -14 15.529/2
Brian Harman -14 95.094/1
Davis Thompson -14 110.0109/1
Seamus Power -14 170.0169/1
Hideki Matsuyama -13 130.0129/1
Lee Hodges -13 400.0399/1
-12 and 750.0749/1 bar

Generally a 46.045/1 chance before the off, Koivun is now odds-on to win his first PGA Tour title in what is just his third start as a professional.

After a glittering and record-breaking amateur career, the Californian looks destined for the top of the game, but he doesn't represent value here at around 4/51.80 and I'm happy to take him on.

Over the last 30 years, three-stroke 54-hole leaders on the PGA Tour have a 53% strike rate suggesting Koivun is fractionally short and although he only has four players within four strokes of his lead, he'll need to back up yesterday's 10-under-par with a fairly low round if he's to hold on.

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Following up Saturday's low round won't be easy

As Ben Kohles demonstrated on Friday, when he followed Thursday's 62 with a 69, and Kim demonstrated yesterday, backing up a low round is never easy and we just don't know how Koivun will handle the pressure of leading today.

He sat second, trailing by a stroke, with a round to go at the Procore Championship in September last year but finished fourth, beaten by three, after a 71 on Sunday and that's the only occasion that he's held a realistic chance of victory on the PGA Tour with 18 holes to play.

That's far from enough evidence to suggest he won't handle the pressure today, but it can't be viewed as a positive.

Looking at this event in isolation, four men have held a clear lead with a round to go and two of the four went on to win.

Jhonattan Vegas converted a one-stroke lead in 2024, 12 months after Lee Hodges won by seven having led by five but Cameron Tringale finished 16^th having led by one in 2021 and Scott Piercy finished fourth, beaten by four, having led by four with a round to go in 2022.

Picking an alternative to the leader is tough. Although the stats to concentrate on are Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach (Koivun ranks third and second for those two metrics after three rounds), this is still basically a putting contest and predicting who's going to putt really well on any particular day is almost impossible.

Given he's a best price of 12/113.00 on the High Street, I'm tempted by Michael Brennan at 16/117.00 on the Betfair Exchange but I'm happy to keep things simple and just lay the leader.

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08:05 - July 25, 2026 - Kim shots 59 to lead by three

Pre-event 80.079/1 chance, Ben Kohles, was trading at 6/17.00 on the Betfair Exchange after he'd posted a nine-under-par 62 to lead by two after round one of the 3M Open and he hit a low of just 3.5551/20 when he played his first five holes on Friday morning in three-under but he hit the skids after that.

Having started on the 10^th, his birdie at the 14^th hole was his last of the day and after a bogey at the par five sixth, he finished up posting a two-under-par 69 which as it transpired, was fully 10 strokes worse than the halfway leader, Michael Kim, shot on Friday morning.

This putt for 59 ...

HISTORY for @Mike_Kim714!

PGA TOUR LIVE on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/XCyOOWeeEP

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 24, 2026

The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, was trading at less than 2/13.00 when he kicked off his second round, trailing the new leader, Kim, by eight strokes, and he's already been matched at as short as 2.1411/10 but after a disappointing second round of 70 yesterday afternoon, he now trails by seven strokes with 36 holes to play.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 7:55.

Michael Kim -14 3.412/5
Ben Kohles -11 9.617/2
Emiliano Grillo -11 11.521/2
Chandler Phillips -11 22.021/1
Jackson Koivun -10 11.010/1
Troy Merritt -10 60.059/1
Brian Harman -9 28.027/1
Zac Blair -9 38.037/1
Billy Horschel -9 46.045/1
Michael Brenan -8 48.047/1
Jesper Svensson -8 70.069/1
Denny McCarthy -8 85.084/1
Scottie Scheffler -7 8.415/2
Hideki Matsuyama -7 48.047/1
Gary Woodland -7 95.094/1
-7 and 100.099/1 bar

The only place to start is with the three-stroke leader, Kim, whose sole success to date on the PGA Tour was at the John Deere Classic back in 2018 where he ended up scooting home by eight strokes having led by three at halfway and by five through 54 holes.

That's the only time he's held a clear 36-hole lead, so he doesn't have any scar tissue to put doubts in his mind, and he has a recent win on the DP World Tour, in the Open de France last year, to give him confidence too.

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Can Kim convert from the front again?

In the last 30 years, 104 men have led a PGA Tour event by three strokes and 36 of them went on to win. That's a strike rate of 34.6% suggesting Kim is a decent price at almost 5/23.50 on the Betfair Exchange but we do have at least three factors to consider that suggest he's not that great a price.

Although he's seven off the lead, the presence of the world's best player in a tie for 13^th would be an obvious concern for Kim backers, as is the fact that it's highly unlikely that he can back up yesterday's super low round today, and we also need to consider how poor an event this has been for halfway leaders.

Lee Hodges, who was four clear at this stage (won by seven), is the only 36-hole leader to kick on and take the title and we've seen three winners come from some way back at this stage.

We've only had seven renewals but last year's winner, Kurt Kitayama, and the inaugural winner, Matthew Wolf, both trailed by eight at halfway, two winners have trailed by four and the 2022 winner, Tony Finau, was six back.

Kim's 24-footer on 18 yesterday morning was the longest final putt sunk to record a sub-60 round on the PGA Tour, beating the previous longest of 20 feet, by Brandt Sneker at the Wyndham Championship in 2018, and that was the last time someone shooting a sub 60 round on the PGA Tour went on to win the event.

Since then, we've seen five sub 60s and all five were shot by someone that didn't go on to win.

All things considered, Kim makes little appeal.

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Long-shots backed at halfway

It's impossible to write off Scheffler but given the two key stats here have been Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Approach and that at the halfway stage he ranks 23^rd and 64^th for those two metrics, I'm happy to leave him out too.

This looks a really tricky tournament to call given the previous in-running trends, but I have chanced two at big prices, starting with Troy Merritt, who sits tied for fifth and just four off the lead.

It's now eight years since the 40-year-old won the second of his two PGA Tour titles so he's been in the wilderness for a long time, but he ranks tied seventh for GIR and second for SG: Approach at halfway and he's a big price at 60.059/1.

Merritt clearly needs to putt better over the weekend given he ranks 21^st for Putting Average and 50^th for Strokes Gained but he's playing nicely tee-to-green.

My only other halfway pick is Austin Smotherman who sits alongside Scheffler in a tie for 13^th.

The 32-year-old is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and at the halfway stage, after rounds of 68 and 67, he ranks second for GIR and third for SG: Approach so he's another that's clearly playing some nice golf.

He's a massive price if he can get a few more putts to drop.

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