The Punter's In-Play Blog: Aberg up by three at Sawgrass

• Leader taken on at odds-on

• Quality players within five of the lead

• Hovland and Thomas could be poised to pounce

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12:15 - March 15, 2026

Having eagled the two par fives on the front nine at Sawgrass on Friday, the halfway leader of the Players Championship, Ludvig Aberg, hit a low of 1.374/11 after he'd eagled the par five 11^th in round three but he parred the next six before bogeying the 18^th to give the chasers some encouragement.

Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 12:10.

Ludvig Aberg -13 1.774/5
Michael Thorbjornsen -10 10.09/1
Cameron Young -9 12.011/1
Xander Schauffele -8 24.023/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -8 25.024/1
Viktor Hovalnd -8 28.027/1
Justin Thomas -8 36.035/1
Corey Connors -8 40.039/1
Brian Harman -8 55.054/1
Sepp Straka -7 65.064/1
Robert Macintyre -7 75.074/1
Jacob Bridgeman -7 90.089/1
Sahith Theegala -7 100.099/1
-7 and 140.0139/1 bar

Over the last 10 years, 43 men have led a PGA Tour event by three strokes through 54 holes and 23 of them went on to win (53.5%), suggesting Aberg is fractionally short at less than 4/51.80 and it looks even shorter when we look at the record of 54 hole leaders at Sawgrass...

In the previous 52 renewals of the Players Championship, only 21 third round leaders have gone on to win so out in front is clearly a tough place to be at Sawgrass.

Lee Jansen, in 1998, is the only player to lead here by three in the last 30 years and he went on to finish 13^th after a 79 on Sunday.

Webb Simpson won by four in 2018, having led by seven, and Jason Day won by four in 2016, having led by four, but as highlighted yesterday, Alex Cjeka finished ninth, having led by five with a round to go.

Since Simpson in 2018, Scottie Scheffler, who had led by two in 2023, is the only one of the last six men to hold a clear third round lead to go on to win and we probably shouldn't expect Aberg to go super low today.

Even including the three wire-to-wire winners this century (who shot final rounds of 71, 71 and 73 to hang on), since Steve Elkington won the second of his two titles back in 1997 by seven after a 69 on Sunday, as many as 32 players have led or co-led through 54 holes and only three of them (Scheffler in 2023, Stephen Ames in 2006 and the unfortunate Anirban Lahiri in 2022) have shot a round in the 60s on Sunday.

Ames fired a 67 to win by six having led by one 20 years ago and Scheffler moved from two clear to five in front with a 69 in round four three years ago. 

In contrast, Lahiri, who also fired 69 in round four, became only the third leader or co-leader to break 70 in 25 years and he was the first to do so and not win since D.A Weibring in 1985.

The last two 54-hole leaders, J.J Spaun and Xander Schauffele, finished second after shooting 70 and 71 respectively, so the last four third round leaders have definitely bucked the trend given the 18 third round leaders/co/leaders in-between 2006 and 2022 were a combined 51-over-par, with a scoring average of 75!

Looking at Aberg's record when leading isn't massively encouraging either.

He led the 2023 BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth by two but finished 10^th and although he converted a one-stroke lead at the RSM Classic in November 2023, he failed to convert a two-stroke 54-hole lead at the Scottish Open in 2024, shooting 73 on Sunday to slip to fourth, beaten by four.

The man in second, Michael Thorbjornsen, is looking to become only the third debutant to win at Sawgrass in 44 years and he's also looking to win for the first time on the PGA Tour so the pressure may tell today but there are plenty of quality players within five strokes of the leader so I'm happy to take Aberg on at odds-on.

I certainly haven't given up on my pre-event pick, Xander Schauffele, or yesterday's in-play fancy, Justin Thomas, who has won from four back with a round to go three times, and seven adrift at the US PGA Championship in 2022, and if I had to pick another alternative, I'd plump for Viktor Hovland at 28.027/1 but I'm happy to just lay the leader at 1.774/5.

08:15 - March 14, 2026

We've reached the halfway stage of the Players Championship and there's been quite a draw bias, with the AM-PM side of the draw averaging 1.92 strokes more than those that began the event on Thursday afternoon but that hasn't stopped Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Ludvig Aberg, who leads my pre-event pick, Xander Schauffele, by two after he posted a remarkable nine-under-par 63 in round two yesterday afternoon.

Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 8:00.

Ludvig Aberg -12 2.68/5
Xander Schauffele -10 5.69/2
Cameron Young -9 8.07/1
Corey Connors -8 19.018/1
Justin Thomas -8 22.021/1
Sepp Straka -7 25.024/1
Maverick McNealy -6 48.047/1
Jacob Bridgeman -6 50.049/1
Lee Hodges -6 190.0189/1
Tommy Fleetwood -5 50.049/1
Russell Henley -5 50.049/1
Viktor Hovalnd -5 55.054/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -5 60.059/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -5 120.0119/1
Austin Smotherman -5 210.0209/1
Brian Harman -5 250.0249/1
Justin Rose -4 170.0169/1
-4 and 250.0249/1 bar

This is the fourth time Aberg has held a clear lead at the halfway stage of a PGA Tour event, but this is his biggest 36-hole lead.

He shot 61-61 over the weekend to win the first of his two PGA Tour titles at the 2023 RSM Classic by four strokes, having led by one at halfway, but he finished 12^th at the 2024 US Open (beaten by seven) and fourth at last year's Scottish Open (beaten by four) having led by a solitary stroke at halfway.

At this event, over the last 30 years, we've seen four men take a two-stroke lead into the weekend previously and all four have failed.

Tommy Tolles, in 1996, finished second, beaten by four, Padraig Harrington, in 2003, finished second, beaten by six, Alex Cjeka, in 2009, finished ninth, beaten by eight, and most recently, Adam Svensson finished 13^th in 2023, beaten by ten.

Interestingly, the first three were all still in front after round three. Harrington was tied for the lead, but Tolles led by two after 54 holes and Cejka went into round four leading by five! Svensson blew his chance in round three, shooting 75 to drop to 14^th place.

It's obviously a very small sample size of players with varying pedigrees but it isn't a great stat for the pre-event 25.024/1 chance, and neither are the recent trends here.

The 2020 edition of the Players Championship was abandoned after round one due to the pandemic but prior to that, when the event was still staged in May, halfway leaders had a fabulous record with five of the eight winners between 2012 and 2019 leading or sharing the 36 hole lead but it's been a different story since the tournament switched to its March slot.

Justin Thomas was tied for 22^nd and seven back in 2021 and Cam Smith sat tied for 11^th and three adrift in 2022. Scottie Scheffler was second and two behind the leader, Svensson, when he won here for the first time in 2023 and with Wyndham Clark leading the field by four at halfway, Scottie Scheffler had sat tied for sixth and six off the lead when he defended the title two years ago.

Rory McIlroy, who had been tied for the lead with Tommy Fleetwood at halfway when he won his first Players title in May 2019, was tied for fourth and two back at this stage before winning in extra time last year.

There were also a few winners that came form off the pace before the event moved from May to March.

Si Woo Kim was 16^th and six off the lead at halfway in 2017 and K.J Choi sat outside the top 10 and four off the lead when winning in 2011, a year after Tim Clark won having sat tied for 23^rd and seven off the lead. 

Aberg was quite brilliant yesterday, playing his first four holes in five-under-par.

He ended the front nine with this eagle chip-in to post 29 and he finished the back-nine with a birdie at the ultra-tough 18^th but I'm far from convinced he's a good thing at little more than 6/42.50 with two rounds to go.

Chip-in eagle to tie the nine-hole TPC Sawgrass record

Ludvig with a front-nine 29 @THEPLAYERS to tie the lead!

Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/CeLsO82cLO

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2026

The stats suggest we can probably scan all the way down to those sitting tied for 10^th and seven off the lead and of those on that number, the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley and Matt Fitzpatrick are all dangerous if they can go super low on Moving Day but the one I've played modestly is the 2023 Open Champion, Brian Harman.

It's asking a lot of the 39-year-old to back up yesterday's eight-under-par 64 but he's simply too big to ignore at odds in advance of 200/1201.00.

Closer to the lead, given how well Sedgefield form holds up at Sawgrass, last year's Wyndham Championship winner, Cameron Young, was carefully considered, and Sepp Straka looks a big price at around 25/126.00 but the one I can't ignore is the 2021 winner, Justin Thomas, who's always capable of a low round at Sawgrass.

He shot 64 in round three on his way to victory five years ago, he moved from 46^th to fifth in round three on the first occasion he played here with a 65 in 2015, he shot another 65 in round four a year later to finish third, and after starting last year's edition with a 78 to sit tied for 133^rd, he tied the course record in round two with a 10-under-par 62 on Friday, and that was with a bogey at the last when he found water off the tee.

I'm not a huge Thomas fan as I find him very hard to gauge but he's done me a few favours from off the pace and I'm happy to play him here at 22.021/1 given he absolutely loves the venue and that he's generally a 14/115.00 chance on the High Street.

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