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A trio of longshots chanced at the Renaissance
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Poor weather disrupts the ISCO Championship
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Read my Open Championship preview here
10:30 - July 13, 2025
The 2023 Scottish Open winner, Rory McIlroy, was matched at as high as 60.059/1 this year before he birdied his final three holes of round one on Thursday afternoon but after a superb 66 on Saturday, the world number two has drawn alongside the halfway leader, Chris Gotterup, and he's most definitely the man to beat now.
Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:20.
Rory McIlroy -11 2.47/5
Chris Gotterup -11 6.25/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -9 10.519/2
Wyndham Clark -9 15.529/2
Jake Knapp -9 16.015/1
Marco Penge -9 17.016/1
Ludvig Aberg -7 36.035/1
Sepp Straka -7 60.059/1
Scottie Scheffler -6 42.041/1
-7 and 70.069/1 bar
In six previous editions of the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, three 54-hole leaders have gone on to win but none of the three did so with ease.
Ludvig Aberg (1.574/7) and Adam Scott (1.282/7) were both matched at odds-on last year before MacIntyre took the title having sat solo second with 18 to play but the other two editions were won by players form off the pace.
Bernd Wiesberger converted a two-stroke lead in 2019 but only in a playoff and after Frenchman, Benjamin Hebert, who had trailed by seven after three rounds, had been matched at 1.021/50 in extra time.
Xander Schauffele, who also led by two, looked like throwing the event away three years ago when he bogeyed three holes in four before the turn. He drifted out to 3.02/1 having earlier been matched at 1.351/3 and MacIntyre was matched at a low of just 1.141/7 in 2023 before McIlroy rallied and birdied the last two holes to pip him.
Min Woo Lee was a 60.059/1 chance before round four when he won from tied fifth and three back in 2021 and 12 months earlier, Aaron Rai was trading at 95.094/1 after 54 holes when he won from five strokes back!
Rory has clearly found his mojo and he's been backed in from 10.519/2 to 7.613/2 to win next week's Open Championship, which I've previewed here.
He'd love to get this trophy back in the cabinet before heading back to his homeland for the year's final major, but this is clearly a venue that produces drama and I'm in no rush to side with him at less than 6/42.50.
I should probably call it a day after yesterday's disastrous in-play picks but given we've seen some dramatic finishes and a couple of off the pace winners here, I've thrown a few pounds at three more outsiders with 18 to play.
Tom Kim has been in the wilderness for a while now, but he loves it here and Andrew Novak's 68 was a great knock yesterday after his 63 on Friday.
They both trail by four on -7 and I've also backed the fourth-round specialist, Kristoffer Reitan, who sits on -6.
The Norwegian has shot 67, 70, 62, 60, 68, 68 and 68 in his last seven starts on a Sunday so he's not out of it.
He won the Soudal Open in a playoff in May having trailed by nine after three rounds and he finished second in Austria, beaten by two, having trailed by eight on Sunday morning so odds of in excess of 300.0299/1 looking sporting.
Over at the ISCO Championship, poor weather disrupted play yesterday and the halfway leader, Chan Kim, who had led by five, still has 12 holes of round three to play.
Having been matched at as short as 1.684/6 in-running yesterday, the 35-year-old now trails Paul Peterson by a stroke after he ended yesterday with back-to-back bogeys, but he may respond today when play resumes.
Safely in the clubhouse and tied for third, the two-time PGA Tour winner, Luke List, is an interesting runner at around 10/111.00 but I'm going to leave the event alone for now and hope Kim can get back on track when play resumes.
10:00 - July 12, 2025
The wind picked up on Scotland's east coast yesterday afternoon and Friday's PM wave averaged almost two strokes (1.87) more than the morning starters on day two of the Scottish Open.
Sweden's Ludvig Aberg, who had led the event by two with 18 to play 12 months ago before a sorry 74 on Sunday saw him finish tied for fourth, managed a five-under-par 65 in the testier conditions and he's the only man in the top five that was drawn AM-PM over the first two days.
Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:50.
Chris Gotterup -11 6.25/1
Harry Hall -9 12.523/2
Ludvig Aberg -8 8.615/2
Matt Fitzpatrick -8 13.525/2
Marco Penge -8 22.021/1
Rory McIlroy -7 7.613/2
Sepp Straka -7 25.024/1
Jake Knapp -7 32.031/1
Nick Taylor -7 38.037/1
Keith Mitchell -7 50.049/1
Matti Schmid -7 55.054/1
Xander Schauffele -6 23.022/1
Brian Harman -6 65.064/1
Scottie Scheffler -5 13.525/2
-6 and 75.074/1 bar
Although generally a 140.0139/1 chance before the off, a strong case can be made for the two-stroke halfway leader, Chris Gotterup, at odds in excess of 5/16.00.
On the only previous occasion he found himself in front at halfway, at the inaugural edition of the Myrtle Beach Classic last year, he won by six having led by just a stroke at halfway so it's not inconceivable that he holds his nerve over the weekend.
Gotterup is the fifth man to hold a clear lead at halfway at the Renaissance since the tournament moved there in 2019 but Rory McIlroy, two years ago, is the only one of the previous four to kick on and win.
Bernd Wiesberger, who was tied at the top with Lee Slattery and Erik Van Rooyen through 36 holes in 2019, is the only other halfway leader or co-leader to win.
The 25-year-old can't be underestimated but he does have two hurdles to overcome. Firstly, he needs to back up yesterday's sensational 61, having slept on the lead and secondly, he's the only player inside the top five not yet in the field at next week's Open Championship.
The top three at the end of the week that haven't already qualified for Portrush will get in and that's just an added pressure for the leader.
The 2023 winner, McIlroy, and Aberg, who led through rounds two and three last year, are the next two in the betting but the one I like at a nice price is the man in second, Harry Hall, who qualified for next week's Open at Burnham and Berrow less than a fortnight ago.
I was hoping Hall would be a big enough price to be included in my Find Me a 100 Winner column this week, but I was far from the only one that liked his chances, and he went off at around 65.064/1 in the end.
He's also been backed into a double-figure price for next week, even though he's never played in the Open before, and victory at Portrush would be most apt given it's exactly 100 years since fellow West Cornwall Golf Course member, Jim Barnes, won the Open Championship at Prestwick.
Hall, who won this week's other co-sanctioned event, the ISCO Championship, 12 months ago, grew up playing West Cornwall and that schooling has clearly prepared him well for any links test.
I like his chances at around 12/113.00.
Ranking only 62nd for Strokes Gained: Putting at halfway, Scottie Scheffler, is next up in the betting but trailing by six, he has plenty to do.
He appeared to putt slightly better yesterday afternoon than he did on Thursday morning and he's made the right decision to play here ahead of next week.
He didn't play in this event 12 months ago and it was his putter that let him down over the weekend when finishing tied for seventh behind Xander Schauffele at Troon.
He ranked 68th for SG: Putting and 36th for Putting Average in last year's Open and not playing in the Scottish arguably cost him.
The last three Open winners have finished 10th, 12th and 15th in this event so it makes sense to play here. Links greens are much slower and very different to those encountered on the PGA Tour week after week so having a week in Scotland to acclimatise is a smart move.
Trailing by just three in a tie for third, Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Matt Fitzpatrick, commands respect and I certainly haven't given up on my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, the 2023 Open winner, Brian Harman, who trails by five in a tie for 12th, but the only one I'm adding to the portfolio at halfway is the prolific Canadian, Nick Taylor, who trailing by four, looks a tasty price at 38.037/1.
Taylor won his fifth PGA Tour title and his third in three years at the Sony Open in January and he looks fractionally big given his penchant for taking a chance when it arises.
Over at the ISCO Championship, the first-round leader, Chan Kim, looked to be struggling in round two and he was two-over par for the day after 12 holes.
The 35-year-old Korean-born American's price drifted back out to double figures, but his day turned around when this happened at the par four fourth, his 13th hole of the day.
The chip in eagle was followed by a tap-in birdie at the par five seventh and another chip in at eight, this time for birdie, and having looked quite shaky early on in round two, he now leads by five with two rounds to go.
Chan, who was a 75.074/1 chance before the off, will be happy to have posted two-under to back up Thursday's remarkable 61 and odds of around 2.47/5 about him winning his first PGA Tour title are more than fair.
Although in search of his first PGA Tour title, he won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 and he's an eight-time winner on the Japan Tour so he knows how to get the job done.
He's successfully converted three of his last four 36-hole leads or co-leads and five stroke leaders on the PGA Tour convert more often than not.
In the last 30 years, 28 players have led by five through two rounds and 20 of them went on to win.
The sample size isn't huge but that's a strike rate of more than 70% suggesting Chan is a fair price at better than 11/82.38.
14:00 - July 11, 2025
Light winds and clear skies met the early starters at the Scottish Open this morning and plenty of players have made a positive move in the benign conditions but the early pacesetter today, Victor Perez, who was matched at just 6.25/1 when he led by three after starting his second round with three straight birdies, is now trading at a triple-figure price after a disappointing level par 70 sees him trailing by five.
The 2023 winner, Rory McIlroy, was matched at as high as 70.069/1 before he birdied his final three holes of round one and after a smart start to day two, he's been matched at as low as 5.79/2 but he played his last 11 holes in level-par today and he trails the current pacesetter, Chris Gotterup, by four.
Dave Tindall will be frustrated by Gotterup's sensational 61 today, as he was one of his three First Round Leader picks at 90/191.00, but he'll be pleased to see that his 40/141.00 each-way fancy, Matt Fitzpatrick, is up to third following a seven-under-par 63.
I'm still sitting on my hands for now and I'll be back again in the morning.
08:55 - July 11, 2025
Frenchman Victor Perez, who won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2019, was one of four men tied at the top after round one of the Scottish Open, and he's made a smart move already this morning in round two, birdying his first three holes.
As highlighted in the preview, a slow start can be overcome at this track and the 2023 winner, Rory McIlroy, who sat third and three off the lead, is the only winner at the Renaissance Course, since the Scottish Open moved there six years ago, to be inside the top 20 and within four of the lead after the opening round.
At the time of writing, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, who shot a three-under-par 67 yesterday morning, is vying for favouritism with the pre-event 170.0169/1 chance, Perez, who's hit a low of 6.25/1, but Scheffler putted poorly yesterday, ranking 71st for Putting Average, and he'll need to improve in that department given putting is usually the key to victory here.
Perez, who now lives in Edinburgh, has slowed up fractionally after the speedy start but he loves links golf, he finished 10th 12 months ago, and he may well hang around all weekend.
I'll be back later in the day if I get involved in running today but all the stats suggest patience is required in-running so it's more likely that I'll update again once they've reached the halfway stage, either this evening or first thing tomorrow morning.
Over at the ISCO Championship, pre-event 75.074/1 chance, Chan Kim, leads by four after a sensational nine-under-par 61 around Hurstbourne Country Club and he now trades at less than 3/14.00 but I'm happy to leave that event alone for now too.
I didn't get to see any of the play yesterday in Kentucky as I'm pre-occupied with preparation for next week's Open Championship.
Scottish Open Pre-Event Picks:
Robert Macintyre @ 34/135.00
Maverick McNealy @ 80.079/1
In-Play Picks:
Harry Hall @ 12.523/2
Nick Taylor @ 38.037/1
Tom Kim @ 95.094/1
Andrew Novak @ 120.0119/1
Kristoffer Reitan @ 320.0319/1
ISCO Championship Pre-Event Pick:
Taylor Montgomery @ 90.089/1
In-Play Pick:
Chan Kim @ 2.47/5