Scottish Open: Defending champ Macintyre a value bet to repeat the feat

• Strong putting required at the Renaissance

• Course form holds up nicely

• Great event for outsiders 

• Read my ISCO Championship preview here

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Tournament History

The first two editions of the Scottish Open were in 1935 and 1936, but the third staging didn't occur until 1972 and two years later the tournament disappeared again. It's been an ever-present on the DP World Tour since 1986 though and in addition to being the second of five Rolex Series events, the Scottish Open is now co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour so it's a very strong field.

The Scottish Open has preceded the Open Championship for many years and since 2011 it's been staged on a traditional links set-up to allow players to acclimatise to links golf prior to the Open.

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Venue

The Renaissance Club, Dirleton, North Berwick.

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Course Details

Par 70, 7,237 yards
Stroke Average in 2024 - 68.75

Situated next door to Muirfield and just two miles from the 2018 Scottish Open venue, Gullane, the Tom Doak designed Renaissance Club is hosting the Scottish Open for a seventh year in-a-row.

Having only opened as recently as 2008, changes were made to the course just five years later when a land swap with the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers enabled three new holes to be constructed - connecting the course to the coastline and the par four 13^th hole (the fourth hole in 2018), along the edge of the cliffs and high above the Firth of Forth, is spectacular.

The Club's website states that "Very little earth was moved in the construction of the course.  The design embraced the original dunes landscape, typical of true links golf. Tom Doak and his team incorporated these contours into the course while leaving certain significant trees to enhance the beauty and challenges of play.  The course has a truly distinctive style; windswept and open dunes land with trees coming into play on a truly coastal links course in Scotland."

The Renaissance Club was the venue for the 54-hole Scottish Senior Open in 2017, won by Paul Broadhurst in 13-under-par, and it first staged this event in 2019 when Bernd Wiesberger eventually saw off Benjamin Herbert after a protracted playoff. Both men reached 22-under-par but in cooler, windier conditions, and following a lengthening of the course by around 200 yards after the 2019 edition, the 2020 playoff protagonists reached only 11-under-par.

Prior to 2020 renewal, the fairways were narrowed in places and there was a change to the layout with holes 1-7 being played as holes 10-16. 

The seventh hole was a 561-yard par five up until 2022 but for the fourth year in-a-row, it plays as a par four measuring 505 yards.

Robert MacIntyre won in 18-under-par 12 months ago, but challenging conditions resulted in Xander Schauffele winning in just seven-under-par three years ago, so we have quite a wide range of winning scores in just six years.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:30 on Thursday.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Robert MacIntyre -18 60.059/1
2023 - Rory McIlroy -15 14.013/1
2022 - Xander Schauffele -7 21.020/1
2021 - Min Woo Lee -18 330.0329/1 (playoff)
2020 - Aaron Rai -11 110.0109/1 (playoff)
2019 - Bernd Wiesberger -22 46.045/1 (playoff)
2018 - Brandon Stone -20 1000.0999/1
2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello -13 65.064/1 (playoff)

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What Will it Take to Win the Scottish Open?

As always with a links tournament, previous links form is a huge plus, so the usual rules apply; look at form at this event over the last 13 years, the 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2024 editions of the Irish Open, the 2019 British Masters from Hillside Links, the Open Championship, and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship for clues. Links golf is quite unique, and those events have all been staged on links courses.

Stats-wise, putting has been absolutely key here.

Both the playoff protagonists in 2019 putted really well, ranking third and fifth for Putting Average, the 2019 winner, Arron Rai, only ranked 29^th for PA, but he was the only player in the top-five to rank outside the top-20, the 2021 winner Min Woo Lee, ranked third for PA and Matt Fitzpatrick, who was beaten in the playoff, ranked first for Strokes Gained Putting.

The 2022 winner, Xander Schauffele, ranked sixth for PA, the first and second in 2023, Rory McIlroy and Robert McIntyre, ranked second and fourth, and it was similar story last year.

The first and second, MacIntyre and Adam Scott, ranked seventh and fifth for PA and the two players to top the PA rankings, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg, finished tied for fourth.

It's 23 years since Ernie Els won the second of his two Scottish Open titles but course form stands up really well here so we may well be due another two-time winner or even a successful title defence by Macintyre.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Following Colin Montgomerie's victory at Loch Lomond in 1999, the home crowd had to wait 25 years for another Scottish winner and this is an event that gets shared around between nations, with winners from all corners of the globe taking the title this century.

Bernd Wiesberger was the first Austrian to take the title in 2019, and we've seen winners representing as many as 14 different nationalities this century.

With as many as four separate winners - Ernie Els (twice), Retief Goosen, Tim Clark and Brandon Stone - the South Africans have fared the best this century but three of the last 12 winners have been from the States and now the tournament is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, we're highly likely to see more American winners.

The English have the next-best record. They've won three of the last 14 renewals and the first three in 2020 (Aaron Rai, Tommy Fleetwood, and Robert Rock) were all English.

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Keep a Close Eye on the Open Championship Market

Last year's Open winner, Xander Schauffele, started this event slowly, sitting tied for 77^th after an opening round of 69 but he finished 15^th and 12 months earlier, Brian Harman had flagged up his wellbeing with a tied 12^th in the Scottish before winning at Hoylake.

As many as 10 of the last 13 Open winners have warmed up for the Championship in this event.

Anyone that plays well here will shortened up dramatically for next week's major so if you fancy someone at Portrush that's playing here this week, make sure you're keeping an eye on how they're doing. Their price will collapse for next week if they perform well here.

Macintyre's price to win the Open moved from 55.054/1 to 38.037/1 his dramatic success last year and Adam Scott (second) and Sungjae Im (fourth) were both big market movers too.

Im was backed at 200.0199/1 to win the Open when he kicked off the Scottish Open on Thursday nicely and he' was a 90.089/1 chance after he'd finish fourth here and Scott's price dropped from 160.0159/1 to 75.074/1.

The 2016 Open winner at Troon, Henrik Stenson, was matched at 40.039/1 to win the Open while this event was in progress, and he went off at around 25.024/1. The runner-up to Stenson, Phil Mickelson, was matched at 60.059/1 during the Scottish Open, before going off at 40.039/1, and those two had history...  

In 2013, Mickelson was matched at 38.037/1 to win the Open before the Scottish Open started but he was down to 22.021/1 after winning this event and Stenson, who stumbled late on in that renewal, saw his odds cut from 70.069/1 to 50.049/1 during this event before going on to finish runner-up to Lefty at Muirfield. 

Rickie Fowler halved in price for the Open Championship when he won the Scottish ten years ago.

Shane Lowry didn't play in this event before he won at Portrush six years ago but he did warm up for the Open by playing on a links track, finishing tied for 62^nd in the Irish Open at Lahinch two weeks before his victory at Portrush, Collin Morikawa won the Open Championship at Royal St Georges after finishing 71^st here and the 2022 Open champ, Cameron Smith, found his groove in this event when finishing tied for 10^th. He had this to say after his victory at St Andrews.

"I started to feel really good with where my game was at last weekend at the Scottish Open, I had a really, really solid weekend."

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A Great Event for Outsiders

Rory McIlroy was well-fancied two years ago and having won the JP MacManus Pro-Am on the Tuesday, Schauffele was a well-backed 20/121.00 shot three years ago too.

Rolex Series events tend to go to high-class, well-fancied players, and now that this event is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour we may see the calibre of the winners improve but this has been a great event for outsiders of late with three of the last seven winners going off at a triple-figure price.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

 

2024 - Robert Macintyre - solo second, trailing by two 6.611/2
2023 - Rory McIlroy led by a stroke 2.727/4
2022 - Xander Schauffele led by two strokes 2.1411/10
2021 - Min Woo Lee T5 - trailing by three 60.059/1
2020 - Aaron Rai T10 - trailing by five 95.094/1
2019 - Bernd Wiesberger led by two strokes 1.991/1
2018 - Brandon Stone T11 - trailing by three 150.0149/1
2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello - trailing by four 34.033/1

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In-Play Tactics

Being up with the pace is often the place to be at links venues. Unless there's significant rain, the courses tend to get faster and firmer as the week wares on but that hasn't always been the case in this event.

Macintyre started fairly slowly, sitting five off the pace in a tie for 34^th after round one and he was four back and outside the top 10 at halfway.

He sat solo second and two back with 18 to play and the 54 hole leader, Ludvig Aberg, who hit a low of 1.574/7, was the only other to trade at odds-on but we've seen plenty of drama here and four of the last eight winners came from off the pace. And it could very easily have been six from eight.

Having been matched at a high of 700.0699/1 during the third round on Saturday morning, Macintyre was a 200.0199/1 chance on Sunday morning two years ago, sitting alongside Tyrrel Hatton, a 75.074/1 shot, and the pair were five adrift with a round to go.

MacIntyre was matched at just 1.141/7 in-running and Hatton hit 2.26/5 after 12 holes before a poor finish saw him finish tied for sixth. And although he led with a round to go, the 2022 winner, Schauffele, started very slowly...

He led by two after 54 holes and after birdies at the first two holes, he was matched in-running at just 1.351/3 but after he'd dropped shots at six, seven and nine, he drifted back out to 3.02/1.

He did manage to regroup and eventually win by a stroke, but he'd sat 11 off the lead and tied for 69^th after round one so he can't be described as an up with the pace winner. He made his big move on Friday, shooting 65 to move up into a tie for fourth at halfway.

Although only three off the lead with a round to go, Min Woo Lee was a juicy 60.059/1 chance four years ago, having been matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running earlier in the week, and that was close to the lead compared to some of the other winners...

Arron Rai trailed by eight after shooting 70 on day one, he was matched for a few pounds at 1000.0999/1 in-running on Saturday, and he still trailed by five with a round to go.

Trading at around 95.094/1 before round four, he hit 200.0199/1 when he fell even further back with a bogey at the second hole but the dropped shot galvanised him into action and five birdies in his next six put him bang in-the-mix. He went on to win in extra time from the wrong side of the draw, one week after giving up a golden chance to win the Irish Open.

Wiesberger trailed by four in a tie for 29^th after round one in 2019 but he was tied for the lead at halfway after a 61 in round two and he was two clear with a round to go but it was very nearly a different story.

Benjamin Hebert traded at a low of 1.021/50 in extra time before losing the playoff to Wiesberger and he'd trailed by six at halfway and by seven through 54 holes!

The two previous Scottish Open winners, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Brandon Stone, had both been seven adrift at halfway, Rickie Fowler trailed by five strokes nine years ago at the midway point and both Phil Mickelson (2013) and Jeev Milkha Singh (2012) trailed by four through 36 holes so a fast start is far from imperative.

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Steve Rawlings' Scottish Open Bets: Defending champ value to repeat the feat

It's extremely tempting to side with the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, at only fractionally less than he trades at to win the Open Championship next week.

He's won three of the last six tournaments he's played in and he finished third last year so anyone taking the 6.611/2 available on the exchange is highly likely to get a good run for their money.

Having got back on track with a solid weekend at the Travelers Championship last time out, where he ended the week in sixth place, Rory McIlroy is heading in the right direction again and having won the event two years ago before finishing fourth last year when defending, he's another extremely obvious candidate and a fair price at almost 12/113.00 but I've scanned a little further down the list for my two pre-event picks.

The defending champions, Robert Macintyre opened at 33/134.00 with the Sportsbook yesterday and he's still a very fair price at anything around 30.029/1.

Defending any title is tough but Macintyre returns to his homeland in great form after a quite brilliant US Open, where he traded at as short as 2.26/5 before finishing second, and a very fair performance in the Travelers the following week.

Macintyre finished only 17^th in Connecticut but he sat outside the top 50 after round one following his exploits at Oakmont and it would be surprising if he didn't contend here given how well he's suited to the venue.

As stated above, he hit a low of 1.141/7 here two years ago before taking the title 12 months ago and he's a bigger price to win here, at a course we know he loves, in familiar surroundings, than he is to win the Open next week.

That doesn't make an awful lot of sense to me. I was more than happy to back him at 33/134.00 and he's still a great price at 30.029/1.

I quite like the chances of Maverick McNealy, and I've had a very small bet on him at 80.079/1 but he's shortened up since and I'm not convinced he's a great price now, although he did contend on debut 12 months ago and he's been in fair form of late.

I've already backed two for the Find Me a 100 Winner column and I'll be back with that later today or tomorrow morning.

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