The Punter's In-Play Blog: Three tied at the top at the Valspar

• Hovland the worthy favourite

• 23 players within four with 18 to play

• Echavarria back in-the-mix

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09:45 - March 23, 2025

There's just 18 holes to play at the Valspar Championship and three players are tied at the top. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:40.

Victor Hovland -7 4.84/1
Jacob Bridgeman -7 6.86/1
Nico Echavarria -7 9.08/1
Ricky Castilo -6 22.021/1
Justin Thomas -5 9.89/1
Shane Lowry -5 12.011/1
Kevin Yu -5 27.026/1
Davis Riley -5 32.031/1
Ryo Hisatsune -5 38.037/1
Jeremy Paul -5 50.049/1
Corey Conners -4 27.026/1
Billy Horschel -4 44.043/1
Byeong Hun An -4 48.047/1
Joe Highsmith -4 48.047/1
Andrew Novak -4 55.054/1
Emiliano Grillo -4 95.094/1
Jordan Spieth -3 65.064/1
Lucas Glover -3 80.079/1
J.T Poston -3 100.099/1
-3 and 150.0149/1 bar

The last three winners of the Valspar, and 12 of the last 17 victors, have been trailing with a round to go. And two of the last eight winners have been trailing by as many as five strokes.

Charl Schwartzel sat solo eighth and five back in 2016 and Paul Casey was tied 11^th and five adrift in 2018. With 18 to play, Schwartzel was trading at 32.031/1 and Casey 120.0119/1 so an off the pace winner certainly can't be ruled out but it's highly likely that at least one of the 16 players within three of the lead will go low enough to rule out those tied for tied 17^th and below.

Viktor Hovland is the understandable favourite and although he hasn't been in-contention for a while, he has a fine record when leading.

He finished second at the Boise Open on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019 and he finished fourth at the Open in 2022 having been tied at the top with 18 to play but he's successfully converted from the front four times having led by one, two, three and six strokes.

The 36-hole leader, Jacob Bridgeman, is the second favourite after his one-under-par 70 in round three but he's looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour and it's hard to believe he can keep on holing so many putts.

It's been an incredible week for the 25-year-old on the greens so far but it's hard to imagine he can keep it going for a fourth day.

I'm very happy to see my in-play pick, Nico Echavarria, back in-the-mix but he will feel he should be clear by now.

The Columbian was matched at 6.25/1 after a fast start in round two but he played his last ten holes on Friday in five-over-par!

He was impressive from the front when winning his two PGA Tour titles - the 2023 Puerto Rico Open and the ZOZO Championship in October last year but he was disappointing when finishing sixth in the World Wide Technology Championship in November, having been tied for the lead after 54 holes.

He traded at long odds-on at the Sony Open in January before losing the playoff to Nick Taylor, having trailed by two with 18 to play so he's fairly solid in-the-mix and he's a very fair price at 8/19.00 on the Exchange.

Korn Ferry Tour graduate, Ricky Castillo, is the only player within a stroke of the leaders but Justin Thomas and Shane Lowry are the very obvious dangers to the trio in front.

Both have the class to close this out in style but neither man is easy to get across the line and I can't help but returning to the favourite with 18 to play.

The former world number three has been in the wilderness for some time now, but he knows how to win and he's worth chancing at odds in excess of 7/24.50.

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16:35 - March 22, 2025

Pre-event 1000.0999/1 chance, Dan Erickson, has hit the front after an eight-under-par 64 in round two of the Singapore Classic but with the event reduced to just 54 holes after Thursday was lost to the weather, it's a wide-open looking heat with 18 to play. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 16:30.

Dan Erickson -11 12.011/1
Tom McKibbin -10 5.69/2
Matthew Jordan -10 8.88/1
Richard Mansell -10 9.08/1
Adrien Saddier -10 10.519/2
Fabrizio Zanotti -10 14.527/2
Jordan Smith -9 13.012/1
Marcus Armitage -9 26.025/1
Manuel Elvira -9 36.035/1
Keita Nakajima -8 28.027/1
Brandon Stone -8 42.041/1
Dylan Frittelli -8 46.045/1
Nacho Elvira -8 65.064/1
Mikael Lindberg -8 100.099/1
Robert Macintyre -7 32.031/1
-7 and 110.0109/1 bar

As highlighted in the preview, there's been all sorts of drama at each of the first two renewals of the Singapore Classic with both winners shooting 63 on Sunday, having begun the final round outside the top ten.

There's plenty of danger lurking, especially on the back-nine, and it's very hard to fancy the front running American, who has been plying his trade on the Sunshine Tour.

Tom McKibbin is the most obvious candidate of the five players sitting tied for second and he understandably heads the market, but I've backed a trio of players just off the pace at bigger odds.

Trailing by three, last year's Indian Open winner, Keita Nakajima, and last year's Bahrain Championship winner, Dylan Frittelli, could be dangerous and the world number 14, Robert Macintyre, looks a threat from four back.

The third round of the Valspar Championship is well underway, where Justin Thomas is making a move, and I'll be back in the morning to look at that one with a round to go.

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07:20 - March 22, 2025

Having begun the second round of the Valspar Championship from the 10^th tee on Friday morning, Shane Lowry posted a six-under-par 29 on the back-nine around Copperhead and he was matched at a low of 5.59/2 as he threatened to put some daylight between himself and the rest of the field but he played the front-nine in two-over and he trails the halfway leader, Jacob Bridgeman, by two at the halfway stage.

Bridgeman finished his round with a bogey at the par four 18^th, so he leads by just one and it's an extremely congested leaderboard.

The weather forecast had suggested there would be a draw bias in favour of the AM-PM side of the draw, but it didn't really materialise.

Those drawn AM-PM averaged 0.49 less than the PM-AM wave but of the78 players that have made the cut, 39 kicked off the tournament on Thursday morning and 39 started in the afternoon.

As highlighted in the preview, straightforward front-running winners are a rarity here and we've seen plenty of winners come from off the pace at halfway.

The tournament was first staged as recently as 2000, but we've already seen winners trailing by three, four, five, six, seven and even eight strokes at halfway.

Kevin Streelman won by two in 2013 having been seven adrift after 36 holes, John Huston won the inaugural edition by three having trailed by seven and John Sendon was eight back after 36 holes in 2014.

The 14 players tied for 65^th are still only eight behind Bridgeman so nobody can be ruled out with absolute certainty.

With Xander Schauffele finding his feet after injury and Viktor Hovland finally finding some form, it's a fascinating leaderboard with 36 to play but it isn't an event to get stuck in to.

"I am hard on myself, but that's also why I'm good."

Co-leader Viktor Hovland gets brutally honest on the state of his game. pic.twitter.com/qOuDYum0Hv

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 21, 2025

Bridgeman and Schauffele are vying for favouritism but it's 7/18.00 the field and hard to call.

I backed J.T Poston, who trails by four, at 65.064/1 last night and I wouldn't put anyone off backing an outsider or two from off the pace but it's definitely a tournament for small stakes at this stage.

The weather looks OK in Singapore and the second round of the Singapore Classic is well underway and currently live on TV.

I'll be back later with a look at that one when there's just one round to play.

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16:10 - March 21, 2025

The first round of the Singapore Classic has been completed, and it may even transpire that we've already reached the halfway stage of the tournament.

After the entire day was lost to the weather on Thursday, the announcement was made this morning that the tournament would be reduced to 54 holes but with plenty of rain in the forecast again tomorrow, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it gets reduced again and that the winner is declared after just 36 holes.

With that in mind, its tempting to side with one or two of the frontrunners but I'm far from convinced.

This is the third edition of the tournament at Laguna and both the first two winners won from miles off the pace with a round to go.

Ockie Strydom sat tied for 11^th in 2023 and Jesper Svensson was five back and tied for 13^th last year. Both men shot 63 in round four.

Although we've only had one round so far, we've already seen how quickly a good round can unravel.

Matthew Jordan is tied for the lead with Marcus Armitage but he played his last four holes in one-over after finding water off the tee on the par three 17^th and the pre-event favourite, Robert Macintyre, was matched at a low of 6.411/2 after he played his first eight holes in four-under-par but he came home in 42 to post a one-over-par 73!

How it currently stands in Singapore #PorscheSingaporeClassic

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) March 21, 2025

I was tempted to play the recent Qatar Masters winner, Haotong Li, at an industry-wide best of 9/110.00 on the Sportsbook, and Keita Nakajima, who defends his Indian Open title next week, played nicely today (trails by two) but I'm happy to sit on my hands for now and see what tomorrow brings.

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09:15 - March 21, 2025

The first round of the Singapore Classic is underway and having lost a whole day's play on Thursday to the rain, the tournament has officially been reduced to 54 holes.

I'll be back later today once play has been completed there but for now, I'm concentrating on the Valspar Championship, where five players are tied at the top after the first day's play.

As is the norm on the PGA Tour, the first round didn't quite get done yesterday but Kevin Velo, who has just the 18^th to play, is the only one of the 10 players yet to finish their opening rounds that's within two of the lead.

Keith Mitchell got it to -6 yesterday and he was matched at a low of 1.422/5 to end the day in front but odds-on backers are in for a big reduction after Mitchell bogeyed his last two holes (8 and 9) to fall back into a five-way tie on -4.

Only one of the five - Sami Valimaki - began the event on Thursday afternoon but with four groups to end their opening rounds, the afternoon starters have averaged fractionally less than the early wave.

* PARTIAL *

*72.52 = R1 scoring → @ValsparChamp

72.60 = early
*72.43 = late (10 stranded)

• R1 is scheduled to resume on Friday at 9:00 a.m. local time. https://t.co/Ygc8CSn8fQ

-- Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) March 21, 2025

That's a bit of a surprise given it appeared that the AM-PM side of the draw would have the better of it over the first two days, but the advantage may yet materialise given the wind is predicted to ease as the day wares on today.

With that in mind, I've added a small wager on Columbia's Nico Echavarria, who is one off the lead after a neat and tidy bogey-free 68 on day one.

He kicks off his second round at 17:56 UK time.

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16:00 - March 20, 2025

The opening round of the Singapore Classic should be in the record books by now but after a deluge of rain, play was abandoned for the day before a shot was played.

UPDATE

Over 230mm (9 inches) of rain fell on Thursday in Singapore. By 5pm, the greens are already getting a cut in preparation for tomorrow's play.

Shoutout to the incredible facilities and green staff at Laguna National #PorscheSingaporeClassic https://t.co/vvc55Wgp3d pic.twitter.com/kDGV5f1kUg

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) March 20, 2025

The first round will be played tomorrow and the second round on Saturday so although no announcement has been made yet, a 54-hole event is a distinct possibility, and a fast start tomorrow could be key.

Over on the PGA Tour, there were market moves aplenty before the off in the Valspar Championship market as it looked highly likely that we'd see a substantial draw bias in favour of the AM-PM wave.

The scoring has been reasonable so far and Keith Mitchell leads the event on -6, having played 14 holes, but I wouldn't be in a huge rush to side with Cashmere Keith.

The 33-year-old was two clear here after 54 holes last year but finished 17^th after a 77 on Sunday and he's not one to go to war with.

It looks like the wind is starting to pick up now but it's never easy to gauge when watching on TV, the commentators have a poor habit of repeatedly telling viewers the wind is getting up whenever there's a gust but it is predicted to blow harder as the day wares on and to continue blowing until tomorrow afternoon so a good score this morning should be a great base to build from.

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Valspar Championship Pre-Event Pick:
Sepp Straka @ 23.022/1
Luke Clanton @ 65.064/1

In-Play Picks:
Nico Echavarria @ 44.043/1
J.T Poston @ 65.064/1
Viktor Hovland @ 4.84/1

Singapore Classic Pre-Event Pick:
Daniel Brown @ 75.074/1

In-Play Picks:
Keita Nakajima @ 29.028/1
Robert Macintrye @ 34.033/1
Dylan Frittelli @ 46.045/1

This week's Find me a 100 Winner Column here

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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