The Punter's In-Play Blog: Day chanced with 18 to play

• Morikawa could be vulnerable in front

• Amateur chanced in Puerto Rico

• Completely Free Bet available every day this Cheltenham Festival on any racing multi

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10:40 - March 9, 2025

It's all change at Bay Hill, after the halfway leader, Shane Lowry, and his closest pursuer after 36 holes, Wyndham Clark, both shot four-over-par 76s in round three of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:30.

Collin Morikawa -10 2.0811/10
Russell Henley -9 4.131/10
Correy Connors -8 8.07/1
Jason Day -7 14.013/1
Tony Finau -5 46.045/1
Michael Kim -5 70.069/1
Shane Lowry -4 100.099/1
Sepp Straka -4 120.0119/1
Andrew Novak -4 200.0199/1
Rory McIlroy -3 85.084/1
-3 and 130.0129/1 bar

As many as 15 third round leaders or co-leaders have gone on to win at Bay Hill this century but five of the last eight editions have been won by someone trailing with a round to go and Francesco Molinari came from miles back six years ago.

The 2018 Open Champ won here in 2019 having sat tied for 17th with a round to go. The Italian was trailing by five and trading at 130.0129/1 and the blustery conditions predicted will help the chasers today, but Molinari is a bit of a one-off.

It's notoriously difficult to win from off the pace here and 29 of the last 30 winners have been inside the top five after 54 holes.

Leading by a stroke, the 2021 Open Champ, Collin Morikawa, is clearly the man to beat but I'm very happy to take him on at just a shade of odds-against.

His victory at Royal St George's was deeply impressive but just five months later he threw away a five stroke 54-hole lead at the Hero World Challenge and he hasn't been the same player in-contention since.

After his calamitous finish in the Bahamas at the end of 2021, he then lost a six-stroke lead at the very start of 2023 at The Sentry and although he did win the ZOZO Championship from two back in October 2023, that's his only win since the DP World Championship in November 2021.

He may well go on to win today, and his nearest challenger, Dave Tindall's each-way fancy, Russell Henley, is better from off the pace than on it, but he's worth taking on given the weather forecast.

Jason Day started the week poorly, shooting a scruffy four-under-par 76 after triple-bogeying the third hole but he's my idea of the value with a round to go.

He looked like drifting out of it when he bogeyed the last three holes on the front nine yesterday and that wouldn't have been a huge surprise after his brilliant 63 on Friday given how tough it is to back up a low round but he finished in style, birdying the last three holes to post a three-under-par 69 and he won't care how windy it gets today.

Day is generally a 10/111.00 shot on the High Street and that's about right. The 14.013/1 plus available on the Exchange is too big.

Lowry and Clark weren't the only two to perform poorly from the front on the PGA Tour yesterday as the front two at the halfway stage of the Puerto Rico Open - Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen and Davis Riley - both struggled.

Neergaard-Petersen shot one-over-par and Riley shot level-par and both now trail the 54-hole leader, Karl Vilips, by four. Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 10:30.

Karl Vilips -18 3.02/1
Joseph Bramlett -17 5.24/1
Keiron Van Wyk -17 13.525/2
Austin Cook -16 21.020/1
Chad Ramey -15 21.020/1
Steven Fisk -15 21.020/1
William Mouw -15 23.022/1
Norman Xiong -15 26.025/1
Kevin Roy -14 36.035/1
Garrick Higgo -14 36.035/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -14 34.033/1
David Riley -14 46.045/1
-13 and 80.079/1 bar

With the 23-year-old Korn Ferry Tour graduate, Karl Vilips, leading Joseph Bramlett and South African amateur, Keiron Van Wyk, who's playing in his first PGA Tour event, by just one, the Puerto Rico Open is an intriguing event with 18 holes to play but the stats tell us we shouldn't be looking too far down this leaderboard.

Leader by in Puerto Rico

In just his fourth TOUR start, Karl Vilips holds the 54-hole lead @PuertoRicoOpen!

(presented by @RocketOTD) pic.twitter.com/8ip9Y5TuAj

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 8, 2025

In 16 previous editions, four strokes is the furthest any winner has trailed by after 54 holes and all 16 winners have been inside the top-five places after three rounds.

We have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last winner trailing by more than two after 54 holes and three of the last five winners were in front.

I was really disappointed by Riley's third round, and he looks done for now but my halfway play, Austin Cook, sits fourth and I've also added a very small bet on the amateur, who looks fractionally big at around 12/113.00.

Bidding to emulate Nick Dunlop, who won The American Express last January as an amateur, the 23-year-old sounded confident enough after his third round.

"Definitely soaking in every moment and the crowds and having the people cheer me on. We don't get that every week playing in college. As far as golf goes, I think it's just like every other tournament I play, just take it as it is and hit the golf ball. Just keep on doing what I've been doing the last three days and hopefully it pays off by the end of tomorrow." Van Wyk said.

Vilips was tied for the lead with 18 to play when he won the Utah Championship in August last year (won by two) but he's been dealing with an upset stomach throughout the week so could be vulnerable today.

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17:35 - March 8, 2025

A three-under-par 67 around Houghton Country Club was enough to see Shaun Norris extend his lead at the Joburg Open to four strokes with 18 to play. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 17:30.

Shaun Norris -14 1.564/7
Jacques Kruyswijk -10 9.28/1
Adrien Saddier -10 11.521/2
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen -9 40.039/1
-8 and 44.043/1 bar

The last seven players to lead a 72-hole stroke play event by four strokes on the DP World Tour have all gone on to win and since the turn of the century 28 of the 40 players to lead by four with 18 to play went on to win.

That's a strike-rate of 70% and Norris has converted all five of his previous 54-hole leads.

Since winning the Africa Open by six strokes in 2008, having led by just one, Norris has converted from one, four, five and seven strokes in front so it's impossible to make a case to take him on at 1.564/7 and if you don't mind taking odds-on, that looks very fair.

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08:25 - March 8, 2025

Having led through rounds one, two and three at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 12 months ago, pre-event 50.049/1 chance, Shane Lowry, who was one of Dave Tindall's three each-way selections before the off, leads by two at the halfway stage of this year's renewal. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:20.

Shane Lowry -8 3.8514/5
Wyndham Clark -6 10.09/1
Collin Morikawa -5 8.27/1
Correy Connors -5 17.533/2
Rory McIlroy -4 6.86/1
Russell Henley -4 20.019/1
Jason Day -4 34.033/1
Justin Thomas -3 19.018/1
Keegan Bradley -3 38.037/1
Max Greyserman -3 50.049/1
Si Woo Kim -2 110.0109/1
Scottie Scheffler -1 17.533/2
-1 and 100.099/1 bar

Tiger Woods' record here is incredible, and he was in front at halfway for four of his eight Bay Hill wins but if you disregard the GOAT, we're left with a mixed bag of results here.

In the last 15 years, Scottie Scheffler, who was tied with five others last year, Kurt Kitayama, Tyrrell Hatton, Woods, Ernie Els and Martin Laird have all gone on to win having led through 36 holes and Jason Day won wire-to-wire in 2016, but we've seen a couple of off the pace winners of late too.

Scheffler was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he trailed by eight at halfway three years ago, Francesco Molinari was matched at 180.0179/1 before round four - six years ago, having tumbled from third to 17th with a three-over-par 73 on Saturday, and Rory McIlroy sat 13th and 11th, trailing by five and six strokes after rounds one and two when he won in 2018.

Lowry has held a clear advantage five times previously and he has a 40% strike rate.

He won a playoff at the Irish Open as an amateur way back in 2009, having led by two at halfway, and he led by one at halfway when he won the Abu Dhabi Championship in 2019, but he's failed to convert three times - at the Wales Open 11 years ago, the RBC Heritage in 2019 and at last year's Open Championship, where he led by two after 36 holes.

Lowry is clearly the man to beat and alongside the man in second Wyndham Clark, who was also tied for the lead at this stage 12 months ago, he tops the crucial Greens In Regulation stats but he's not for me at less than 3/14.00.

Rory is an obvious danger, but he too looks short enough and I'm certainly in no rush to back Collin Morikawa, who has been really disappointing in-contention of late.

Scheffler could click into gear and get involved and there are numerous interesting candidates on the fringes of contention.

The 2016 winner, Jason Day, shot a remarkable eight-under-par 64 to get within four and from five back, the veteran, Keegan Bradley, and the young pro on the rise, Max Greyserman, are interesting runners too.

Those three trade at prices ranging from 33/134.00 to 50.049/1 and look nicely priced but I'm going to continue to sit on my hands for now.

Over at the Puerto Rico Open, Denmark's Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen leads by one with two rounds to play and we shouldn't be looking too far down the leaderboard.

In 16 previous editions we've only seen two winners from off the pace.

Tony Finau, who sat 15th and four adrift in 2016, and Derek Lamely, who was 35th and six off the lead after 36 holes in 2010, are the only winners not to be inside the top seven places at halfway but clear 36-hole leaders don't have a great record.

Since it became a PGA Tour event in 2008, ten men have held a clear advantage at the halfway stage and only two of them went on to win - Alex Cejka in 2015 and Ryan Brehm three years ago.

That's not great news for the young Dane who has only ever won on the HotelPlanner Tour and I'm more than happy to stick with Davis Riley who sits alone in second.

The last two winners, Nico Echavarria and Brice Garnett, were both sitting second at halfway and Riley remains very nicely priced at 8/19.00 on the Exchange given he's no bigger than 6/17.00 on the High Street.

Alone in third, two behind Neergaard-Petersen, one behind Riley, and one in front of the trio that sit tied for fourth and three off the lead - William Mouw, Noah Goodwin and Karl Vilips - Austin Cook looks big at around 30.029/1.

The 33-year-old's sole success on the PGA Tour was at the RSM Classic in 2017. He won that nicely by four and he also made it to a playoff at the Shriners in 2020, so he's got more experience than many in-contention.

He fits the profile of a Puerto Rico Open winner nicely and I was happy to add him to the portfolio.

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19:50 - March 7, 2025

Rounds of 66 and 63 around Houghton Country Club have seen pre-event 30.029/1 chance, Shaun Norris, lead after 36 holes for the second week in-a-row. Here's the latest state of play at the Joburg Open with prices to back at 19:45.

Shaun Norris -11 4.47/2
Adrien Saddier -10 8.88/1
Connor Syme -9 14.527/2
Shubhankar Sharma -9 18.017/1
Wenyi Ding -8 18.017/1
Jacques Kruyswijk -8 18.017/1
Joost Luiten -8 21.020/1
Richard Mansell -8 24.023/1
Callum Tarren -8 34.033/1
Nicolai Von Dellingshausen -8 42.041/1
-7 and 29.028/1 bar

A week after leading by a solitary stroke after two rounds of the South African Open, Norris leads by one again after 36 holes of the Joburg Open and he'll be hoping to perform considerably better this Saturday than he did last.

As it transpired, the third round at Durban was the last of the week so he had no chance to respond after his sorry 76 saw him slip to a tie for ninth.

The 42-year-old South African had made no secret of his desire to win his national title and he may just have wanted it too much.

In addition to winning seven times on the Japan Tour and a couple of times on the Sunshine Tour, he's won two co-sanctioned DP World Tour events - the Steyn City Championship in 2022 and the Alfred Dunhill Championship in December - so he's an experienced and fairly prolific winner. And his record in-contention is pretty good too.

Prior to last week's disaster, Norris had messed up a couple of times when leading or tied for the lead after two rounds so that wasn't a one off, but he's also converted from the front in style.

He won both the Myanmar Open in 2016 and the Japan Open in 2022 by four, having been tied for the lead at halfway on both occasions and he won the first of his two DP World Tour titles from the front, shooting 67-70 over the weekend to win by three, having led by three through 36 holes.

I suspect he'll fare far better this week than he did last and odds of around 7/24.50 look fair but the one I like at this stage is Callum Tarren, who led the Bahrain Championship after rounds two and three last month before eventually finishing eighth.

The Englishman will have learnt from the experience and the fact that he ranks first for Greens In Regulation at halfway bodes well.

Trailing by three, he needs a few putts to start dropping but he's a very fair price at 33/134.00 on the Exchange.

I'll be back in the morning with a look at the two PGA Tour events - the Puerto Rico Open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational - once they've both reached the halfway stage.

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09:50 - March 7, 2025

The Arnold Palmer Invitational looked like a tough tournament to call before the off with the market leaders - the defending champ, Scottie Scheffler, the 2018 winner, Rory McIlroy, and the world number four, Ludvig Aberg - all with strong claims and it still looks tough.

Pre-event 90.089/1 chance, Wyndham Clark, made the most of the calmer afternoon conditions to post a five-under-par 67 but with Rory three back in a tie for sixth and Scheffler tied for 11^th and four off the lead, Rory and Scheffler still dominate the market. Aberg shot level par, and he sits tied for 15^th.

The wind is predicted to lay down today so we should see a few decent scores but I'm leaving the event alone for now.

Over on the DP World Tour, the second round of the Joburg Open is well underway and Sean Norris is currently leading with four holes of his second round to play.

I'll look at that one at halfway but for now, my only in-running bets are at the PGA Tour's second-string event - the Puerto Rico Open.

As highlighted in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, I managed to get small wagers matched at decent odds on both Davis Riley and Tyler Duncan before the off and I'm more than happy to top up this morning at 25.024/1 and 60.059/1.

The first round didn't quite get finished yesterday after a rain delay early on in the day, but Riley sits tied for third after an eight-under-par 64 and Duncan is four off the lead on -6.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Pick:
Robert MacIntyre @ 80.079/1

In-Play Trades:
Collin Morikawa layed at 2.111/10
Jason Day @ 14.527/2

Joburg Open Pre-Event Pick:
Danie Van Tonder @ 40.039/1

In-Play Pick:
Callum Tarren @ 34.033/1

Puerto Rico Open Pre-Event Pick:
Taylor Montgomery @ 80.079/1

In-Play Picks:
Davis Riley @ 25.024/1
Tyler Duncan @ 60.059/1
Austin Cook @ 30.029/1
Keiron Van Wyk @ 13.525/2

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