Arnold Palmer Invitational: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 35/1 to 80/1

• 35/136.00 Shane Lowry is in good form and played in the final group here in 2024

• 40/141.00 Russell Henley plays tough courses well and was fourth last year

• 80/181.00 Sahith Theegala made the top six last year and offers each-way value

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Brief history of the Arnold Palmer Invitational 

Arnold Palmer was a game changer for golf, his swashbuckling style thrilling crowds worldwide.

So it's a shame that some of those made in his image aren't here to play the great man's tournament this week.  

Moving to LIV has ruled out Jon Rahm along with former Bay Hill winners Bryson DeChambeau and Tyrrell Hatton while Jordan Spieth hasn't qualified and won't be receiving an invite.

Still, it's hard to argue with the field quality of this latest Signature Event and, right at the very top of the betting, 16/54.20 Scottie Scheffler will be seeking his third Bay Hill victory in the last four years.

Looking at results on the PGA Tour this season suggests a class act will get it done.

So far, we've had nine tournaments. The ones with a purse under $10m have been won by Nick Taylor, Sepp Straka, Harris English, Thomas Detry, Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith. 

The three with purses of $20m - the exclusive, limited-field Signature Events - have gone to Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg. You'll find all three in the top six of the world rankings.

That said, between Scheffler's victories here in 2022 and 2024, Kurt Kitayama scored a shock win on debut in 2023, edging out Rory McIlroy and Harris English by a shot.

Matt Every was also twice a surprise winner but Tiger Woods' eight wins at Arnie's place remind us that the cream so often rises to the top. 

Bay Hill was orginally designed by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee and is a stock par 72 measuring 7,466 yards.

The bigger-than-average TifEagle Bermudagrass greens will run quick and, make no mistake, this is a tough, tough test even if some of Arnie's other courses around the world are not.

Hatton won with 4-under in 2020, Scheffler with 5-under three years ago while only the winners have shot better than 10-under in the last six editions.

That's no surprise given the amount of sand, water and thick rough (four inches this year) and a strong long game is needed to contend. 

Stats-wise, the last five winners ranked 12th, 18th, 1st, 9th and 2nd for Strokes Gained: Approach and Scheffler (2024) and DeChambeau (2021) were both 1st for SG: Off The Tee.

Putting? The winners from 2020-2024 were 5th, 2nd, 17th, 21st and 15th respectively for SGP.

Wind will be factor too with Thursday and particularly Sunday throwing up some strong breezes.

Shane Lowry @ 35/136.00

This could very easily be the week that Scottie Scheffler gets his season up and running but this is an each-way preview of course so he doesn't qualify.

Rory McIlroy has to be given huge respect too given his course record which shows a win, a second and numerous other good finishes. 

But I'll focus first on two players who both reside in the top 15 of the world rankings, starting with Shane Lowry at 35/136.00.

I'm definitely leaning on strong iron play this week and Lowry ranks 23rd for Strokes Gained: Approach this season. Most recently he was 5th for Approach at last week's Cognizant Classic.

With the rough a definite factor, it may also be smart to pick a player who finds plenty of fairways rather than just bombs it. Bomb and gouge works when you're wedging to the green but here it's more mid and long irons.

Lowry ended last season with eight straight top 15s and he's already been a presence on our screens this year with a hole-in-one at the iconic 7th at Pebble Beach helping him to a second place behind McIlroy there.

He started the Florida Swing with 11th at the Cognizant, looking sharp around the greens, and looks primed for a big week here.

Bay Hill was a code the 2019 Open champion couldn't crack for a while as he missed his first four straight cuts at Arnie's place.

But last year was a turning point. Lowry opened with a 66 and battled away to finish third.

Lowry has been busy, playing the Cognizant and then appearing in the TGL for The Bay but all those five competitive days were spent near his Florida home.

"I play these types of courses well. Obviously, my record is not great here, but I play tough golf courses well," said Lowry after his third place last year.

That's an important mental step to take, knowing that he can perform at Bay Hill, and the wind in the forecast can only further help his chances.

Players can flip things around on a course that gives them trouble. Rory McIlroy missed his first three cuts at Sawgrass but then went 8-6-8 before winning there in 2019.

Lowry played in the final group here on Sunday last year but lost out to Scheffler's brilliance. Now that he knows what it takes to excel at Bay Hill, hopefully it's the Irishman's turn in 2025.

Russell Henley @ 40/141.00

Russell Henley was in title contention at PGA National last week, eventually finishing sixth.

That added to his bright opening to 2025 which also features 10th at the Sony Open and fifth at Pebble Beach in two of his other three starts.

The Georgia Bulldog ranks 26th for Approach this season and, this could be the difference maker, 19th for SG: Putting.

He's also going to be playing from the short grass more than the vast majority of his rivals and that's key. Henley ranks 9th for Driving Accuracy so far.

While sixth at last week's Cognizant Classic was strong, there's an argument that his skillset is even more suited to Bay Hill.

Henley plays tough courses well. The 35-year-old has three top 15s in the last four US Opens including seventh at Pinehurst in 2024 while fifth last summer at Royal Troon in an Open won with 9-under is further evidence.

Asked last year if he thought he enjoyed difficult tracks, Henley replied: "I do. I feel like usually I hit it well off the tee and can get the ball in the fairway, so I think that's an advantage."

As with Lowry, windy conditions are likely to help his cause as could the confidence from his display at Bay Hill last year.

Henley, who was also 13th in 2022, took fourth place 12 months ago. 

He said that week: "I think my last three years are my most consistent. Just feel like I've really started working hard on everything very consistently about six, seven years ago, and I feel like I'm starting to see the results of it and just getting a little more confident.

"I've been blessed to not get hurt, yet, and I have a tremendous support system with my wife and family. I just feel really comfortable with everything I'm doing."

He's an easy sell and I like his each-way odds of 40/141.00 (1/5, 7 places). 

Sahith Theegala @ 80/181.00

Unless you watch TGL (and you should, it's fun), you won't have seen much of Sahith Theegala so far this season.

The Californian hasn't exactly struggled - indeed he's not missed a cut - but a series of midfield finishes have been disappointing for a player on the up.

Still, he dug in well at Torrey Pines last time and rounds of 69-68 on the weekend elevated Theegala to tied 17th.

If his game is now pointing in the right direction, Florida could be a good place for it to flourish.

Theegala has a strong recent record in the Sunshine State, his last five starts there producing three top 10s and a 14th.

The 14th came in this event two years ago while last year he shot bookend 68s to finish in sixth - enough for an each-way return.

Also ninth at TPC Sawgrass last year, Theegala's short game looked in good nick at Torrey and in a tournament where greens are hard to hit and wind toughens the examination paper further, relying on a bit of magic on and around the putting surfaces is a big plus.

It may well be that Theegala just won't drive the ball straight enough but the World No.21 is an enticing price at 80s and I'm willing to give him a whirl.

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