The Punter

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Knapp bounces back to stay in front

Golfer Laurie Canter
Laurie Canter in action in round three in South Africa

There's just round to go at the Cognizant Classic and Jake Knapp is still in front. Our man's back with his final in-running thoughts for the week here...

08:30 - March 2, 2025

Play has just been suspended at the South African Open due to a flooded course so whether they get to finish round four or not now is debatable but if they don't and the tournament is reduced to 54 holes, Dylan Naidoo is going to rue missing his short birdie putt in the dark yesterday after this brilliant second shot.

Over on the PGA Tour, we witnessed plenty of drama in round three of the Cognizant Classic yesterday.

In the space of about 20 minutes, we saw three different leaders have issues at the first hole of the notorious three-hole stretch at PGA National known as the Bear Trap

Pre-event 530.0529/1 chance, Taylor Montgomery, who was matched at as low as 6.05/1 after he'd shot 30 on the front nine to lead by two, made a seven when he found water off the tee and the rocks with his second attempt.

Just 10 minutes after Montgomery's disaster, Sweden's Jesper Svensson, who was tied for the lead at the time, hit his second shot from a greenside bunker back into the water and he recorded a triple-bogey six to tumble out of contention.

While Svensson was messing up at 15, Michael Kim was birding the tough par four 14th to take the lead but minutes later, it was his turn to get in a tangle on 15.

Having not dropped a shot all week, Kim's tee shot hit the rocks, but he caught a break. Instead of bouncing back into the water, the ball pinged up into the air and off to the right and it landed in the mud from where he was able to scramble a bogey four.

It was quite a day all round and we saw as many as ten players hold at least a share of the lead at one time or another but when the music stopped, the first and second round leader, Jake Knapp, was still in front.

After a birdie at the first, he played poorly on the front nine, recording seven pars and two bogeys but he settled down on the back-nine to post a three-under-par 68 and he leads by one with a round to go. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:00.

Jake Knapp -16 4.216/5
Michael Kim -15 6.411/2
Russell Henley -14 7.413/2
Ben Griffin -14 9.28/1
Doug Ghim -14 13.012/1
Rickie Fowler -13 18.017/1
Tayor Montgomery -13 40.039/1
Sepp Straka -12 28.027/1
Daniel Berger -12 30.029/1
-12 and 50.049/1 bar

Daniel Berger lost a playoff here ten years ago, having sat tied for 12th and nine off the lead with 18 to play, so we can't completely rule out an off the pace winner but over the years, PGA National has been a really tough place to make up ground on a Sunday.

Harrington had sat tied for second before he beat Berger in extra time a decade ago and the only winner not to be sitting first or second after 54 holes in the last ten years is Sungjae Im, in 2020, who sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, held by the often-flaky Tommy Fleetwood.

Berger lost a five-stroke 54-hole lead here three years ago (shot 74 in round four to finish fourth) but three of the last four winners were leading or tied for the lead and the five winners between 2008 and 2012 were also in front with a round to go.

All that suggests the leader's a fair price at around 3/14.00 and I'm happy to stick with him but it's been a long week for the 30-year-old.

After shooting 59 on Thursday, it feels like it took 27 holes for him to get back on track.

The way he finished yesterday is extremely encouraging but he's bidding to do something nobody's done in the 18 years that PGA National has hosted the event, and that's win wire-to-wire.

Rory McIlroy came closest to achieving the feat in 2014, but he eventually lost a playoff to Russell Henley after a disappointing 74 on Sunday.

Michael Kim has been extremely impressive all week and from just one back, he's the biggest danger to the leader, but Henley finished his third round with three birdies in-a-row and he commands plenty of respect too.

He's far from the easiest to get across the line, and he shot 72 in round four before beating Rory, Russell Knox and Ryan Palmer in extra time 11 years ago. but if the front two mess around, given how well he plays the course, he's the man most likely to capitalise.

Ben Griffin and Doug Ghim are the only other two within two strokes of Knapp, but both are in search of their first wins on the PGA Tour.

20:15 - March 1, 2025

It's taken three days and a bit of a farcical finish to round three, but the South African Open is now back on track after the late start on Thursday morning.

It looked touch-and-go as to whether round three would get completed today but nobody wanted to come back early tomorrow to finish off, so the last few groups rushed their finishes to get done, although it was virtually dark by the time the final three-ball played the drivable par four 18th.  Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:00.

Laurie Canter -14 2.727/4
Dylan Naidoo -14 7.26/1
Marco Penge -13 8.615/2
Branden Grace -12 9.417/2
Darren Fichardt -12 25.024/1
Christiaan Maas -12 17.016/1
Andrea Pavan -11 22.021/1
Dale Whitnell -11 40.039/1
Shaun Norris -10 40.039/1
Scott Jamieson -10 50.049/1
-9 and 100.099/1 bar

There have been nine 72-hole stroke play events at Durban Country Club since 1996, and six of the nine winners were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go.

Warren Schutte sat second before the final round of the South African Players Championship way back in 1997 before he went on to win by two and Louis Oosthuizen, in 2013 and 2014, is the only one of the nine winners to be any further than a stroke adrift with a round to go.

Durban also hosted all seven editions of the now defunct Suncoast Classic on the Sunshine Tour between 2006 and 2012 and the last four winners were all in front with a round to go but like many Sunshine Tour events, the Suncoast Classic was staged over just 54 holes, so quite how relevant that form is - is debatable.

He won in 2013 courtesy of a final round collapse by Scott Jamieson, who had led by five, and he overtook Tommy Fleetwood, Joost Luiten and Victor Dubuisson to defend a year later, having trailed by two.

That's good news for backers of the pre-event second favourite, Laurie Canter, who's a very worthy favourite with 18 to play.

Laurie Canter South Africa Open 2025.jpg

Canter's poor putting put me off before the off but after 54 holes, he ranks as high as 19th for Putting Average and that's better than he's ranked in quite some time.

He ranked fifth when finishing 14th in the DP World Tour Championship in November but in his two starts before that he ranked 52nd and 57th for PA and in his five starts since he's ranked 49th, 23rd, 29th, 50th and 46th.

Incredibly, he finished third in the Dubai Desert Classic ranking 29th and he won in Bahrain ranking 50th so he's going to take some beating if he holds is nerves and keeps holing putts.

This is the fifth time that Canter has led or been tied for the lead with a round to go and he's finished second, fifth, fourth and first.

He hasn't been brilliant in-contention over the years, but he won his first DP World Tour title - the European Open - in June last year having been tied at the top with 18 to play.

Alongside canter is Dylan Naidoo and he could well be being underestimated at 6/17.00.

He was tied for the lead with a round to go at the Mauritius Open just before Christmas and although he eventually finished second, he played nicely after a disastrous start (three over after four in round four).

He will have learnt from the experience and he's a winner on the Sunshine Tour so he can't be dismissed, and neither can Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Branden Grace, who won this title back at Randpark back in 2020.

Grace is the class act on the leaderboard and odds of 8/19.00 look fair but my only bet before round four is on the man alongside Grace in a tie for fourth - Darren Fichardt.

It would be quite a story if the 49-year-old could sign off what's been a fabulous career with a victory in his national championship and he's a big price to pull off the fairytale victory at 25.024/1.

He made a mess of the 17th hole today as darkness descended but he more than made up for it at the 18th with this stunning eagle and in what is a tough event to call, I'm happy to pull for Fichardt and hope we get done.

10:10 - March 1, 2025

 

After an early start this morning, the South African Open has reached the halfway stage and last night's in-play pick, Sam Bairstow, sits tied for second alongside Dylan Naidoo, just a stroke behind Shaun Norris.

Rain-soften Durban Country Club is continuing to yield to low scores and it's going to be interesting to see how low they can go today.

Naidoo shot an 11-under-par 61 yesterday to move up from a tie for 52nd to tied second so there's clearly scope for someone to make a big move on Moving Day, although it's likely that at least one or two of the frontrunners will go low too.

I'm looking forward to watching round three around what really is a truly stunning venue and I'll be back later with an update when there's only 18 left to play but for now I'm concentrating on a very competitive Cognizant Classic, were there's been a sizable draw bias in favour of Thursday's early starters.

The differential in scores between the AM-PM and PM-Am wave wasn't huge but the top nine all began the event on Thursday morning. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:00.

Jake Knapp -13 6.05/1
Mathieu Pavon -12 15.529/2
Daniel Berger -11 8.07/1
Michael Kim -11 13.012/1
Jesper Svensson -11 17.533/2
Doug Ghim -11 17.533/2
Rickie Fowler -10 21.020/1
Tayor Montgomery -10 70.069/1
Zach Johnson -10 70.069/1
Russell Henley -9 19.537/2
Ben Griffin -9 27.026/1
Luke Clanton -9 32.031/1
Brian Harman -9 42.041/1
Brice Garnett -9 120.0119/1
Shane Lowry -8 30.029/1
Sepp Straka -8 36.035/1
-8 and 55.054/1 bar

With a birdie at his final hole in round two (the ninth), the first round leader, Jake Knapp, has held on to the lead after a scruffy second round and he's still the man to beat according to the market but halfway leaders don't have a great record here of late and the tournament is wide open as we head into the weekend.

Keith Mitchell, who was tied at the top after 36 holes in 2019, is the last halfway leader or co-leader to kick on and take the title.

The last two winners were trailing by just a stroke at this stage and the three victors after Mitchell were three, three and five adrift but it's highly likely that the winner is listed above given the 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, is the only winner of the event here to be outside the top top-seven places at halfway and he only sat ninth (trailed by five).

I'm kicking myself for not getting Michael Kim onside last night as he played the 18th hole.

It was always odds-on that he'd birdie the hole given it's averaging more than half a stroke under its par of five and yet he was trading at around 19.018/1.

He's shortened up a lot since then but he's yet to make a bogey so far this week and he's a big danger.

Now trading at 12/113.00, he doesn't represent value, so I've chanced a couple of players for small stakes who the stats suggest are too far back.

Although only trailing by four, both Brain Harman and Brice Garnett are tied for 10th so if either man is to go on and win, they'd be the first to win in 18 years having been outside the top nine at halfway but at 44.043/1 and 130.0129/1 respectively, I was happy to overlook that small detail.

As detailed yesterday, Harman once shot 61 here and Open winners have a great record at PGA National. He's no bigger than 33/134.00 on the High Street so anything over 40/141.00 is more than fair.

Although I've never seen any data on it, I've very often noticed that players find a bit of form at around the same time that they won the year before, and that's been the case with the leader this week, Knapp, and with Garnett.

Knapp won last week's event, the Mexico Open, 12 months ago, and Garnett will be heading off to Puerto Rico next week to defend the Puerto Open title.

It's a big ask for Garnett to win but his odds more than reflect that and he's an interesting runner at as big as 130.0129/1.

21:25 - February 28, 2025

 

The second round of the Cognizant Classic is drawing to a close and I'll be back tomorrow with a look at that one once they've reached the halfway stage but for now, I'm concentrating on the DP World Tour action.

After the late start due to the rain, some players haven't quite reached the halfway stage of their second rounds at the South African Open at Durban Country Club so we're still playing catch up.

It's been a quite remarkable day, with Dale Whitnell making two holes-in-one in the same round but it's the recent Alfred Dunhill Championship winner, Shaun Norris, that leads on -14.

Norris heads the market at around 4/15.00 but the one I like is Sam Bairstow, who trails by three.

He must have been a bit frustrated to have to call it a day today given he'd made back-to-back birdies at six and seven and an eagle at the eighth when play was suspended for the day.

He still has ten holes of round two to play so he could yet catch the leader before we reach the halfway stage, and he looks fractionally big at around 9.08/1 given he's no bigger than 6/17.00 on the High Street.

19:20 - February 27, 2025

 

Play has ended for the day at Durban Country Club, and those originally drawn in the afternoon in round one of the South African Open will be playing catch up tomorrow.

After torrential rain in the lead up to the event, the start of the tournament was delayed by three hours but it's incredible that they were able to play at all today given the condition of the course on Wednesday.

The decision to completely revamp the course to cope with wet weather (see preview) has already been vindicated and we should get back on track sometime on Saturday.

Today's afternoon starters should get round one and two finished tomorrow with the early starters in round one likely to need to return to the track on Saturday morning to finish up their second rounds.

With the course soft, and with no wind, Durban has been defenceless so far and Sam Bairstow and Fredrik From have the clubhouse lead after the pair shot seven-under-par 65s but they might not end round one in front.

Darren Fichardt sits alongside them on -7 and he's only played 14 holes of his opening round.

The veteran South African can be backed at odds in excess of 2/13.00 in the 1st Round Leader market but there are two players on -5 with nine to play and one on -5 with eight to play so even if he passes the front two it might not be enough.

Low scoring has been the theme of the day, and although there's still lots of golf to be played in Florida, it looks highly likely that Dave Tindall's 70/171.00 First-Round Leader Tip, Jake Knapp, is going to prevail.

In benign early conditions at the Cognizant Classic, Knapp had an eagle putt on the 18th to be the second man in PGA Tour history to shoot 58! He settled for being the 15th to break 60.

Knapp's 12-under-par is a very low score given we've had 18 previous editions of the event at PGA National and 12 of the 18 winners have finished the week on -10 or higher.

The first three winners ended the week on -5, -6 and -9!

It wasn't the first super low round here though. Brian Harman shot 61 in round two back in 2012 and the 2021 winner, Matt Jones, led by three after he'd opened up the event with another 61.

Knapp is the fifth man to shoot 59 in round one and he's looking to be the third to go on to win.

Justin Thomas went on to win the Sony Open in 2017 and Brandt Snedeker the Wyndham in 2018, but Paul Goydos finished second at the 2010 John Deere Classic, although he was beaten by Steve Stricker who opened up with a round of 60, and Hayden Springer finished tied for seventh at the John Deere Classic last year after he'd started the week with a 59.

Knapp trades at more than 5/16.00 but course specialists, Russell Henley and Daniel Berger, are only four back, along with the man that ran Knapp close at the Mexico Open last year - Sami Valimaki.

Assuming he doesn't get caught, Knapp will be the tenth player to hold a clear lead here after round one and Jones is the only one to win - although he's the only one of the nine to lead by more than two.

I'm happy to play the leader at 6.411/2. He's only ever held a clear lead after round one once before, on the Canadian Tour back in 2019, and he went on to win and he won nicely in the end in Mexico last year having hit the front at halfway.

He's generally a 7/24.50 chance on the High Street and no bigger than 4/15.00 so it's impossible to crab odds of more than 5/16.00 on the Exchange and that looks fractionally big.

Cognizant Classic In-Play Picks:
Jake Knapp @ 6.411/2
Brian Harman @ 44.043/1
Brice Garnett @ 130.0129/1

South African Open Pre-Event Pick:
Daniel van Tonder @ 55.054/1

In-Play Picks:
Sam Bairstow @ 9.08/1
Darren Fichardt @ 25.024/1

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