Cognizant Classic First-Round Leader Tips: A trio of picks from 45/1 to 100/1

• 45/146.00 Russell Henley is a course horse who starts fast

• 100/1101.00 Chandler Phillips opened with a 66 here last year

• 70/171.00 Jake Knapp is worth another go given his recent FRL record 

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Weather forecast for Thursday/FRL history

Looking at the last four years at PGA National, a round of 65 or lower has been required to lead or at least secure a podium finish in the FRL market.

In those tournaments from 2021 to 2024, 18 players shot 65 or lower on day one.

Here's the interesting bit though: 14 of the 18 had a morning tee-time (one of those hitting away at 11.45 it should be noted).

If you go back to 2020, the FRL was secured with a 66. Two players managed it and both teed off before midday.

A look at the weather for Thursday suggests there's no advantage in terms of wind for either wave - it's a pretty calm and consistent 5-7mph all day - so I'll lean on history and pick three morning starters.

Russell Henley @ 45/146.00

Russell Henley will be a very popular pick for punters and fantasy players this week but he has to appeal in this market too given that his first-round leader odds are double those of his outright offerings. 

And, he has that morning tee-time we're looking for: the American starts out from the 10th (as have five of the last seven Thursday leaders) at 07.40.

Henley is a former winner here at PGA National and also has a third, an eighth and three other top 25s to his name.

As for fast starts here, he's twice opened with 64s and that put him second after round one on both occasions.

A fairly simple argument is completed by Henley being a FRL at Pebble Beach just two starts ago.

In fact, he's been in the top 25 after 18 holes in each of his last eight events.

Chandler Phillips @ 100/1101.00

It was a case of what might have been for Chandler Phillips on his tournament debut here last year.

An opening 66 had put him ninth after day one but he then withdrew near the end of a difficult round two so something wasn't right.

A native Texan, Phillips has made just one other start in Florida and that went particuarly well as he finished third in last year's Valspar Championship.

We may as well add in his one Florida event on the Korn Ferry as that resulted in 12th at the 2023 Suncoast Classic where he fired a Friday 62.

Phillips sat ninth after round one in Mexico last week and, in the Fall Series, he was twice in the top five after 18 holes (RSM Classic via a 64 and Sanderson Farms after a 65).

He's a late morning starter at 11.45 from the 10th but a couple of players have led the way after 18 holes from that similar time slot.

There's plenty to like about him at a three-figure price.

Jake Knapp @ 70/171.00

Jake Knapp was my headline FRL selection in Mexico last week and he gave it a decent go by shooting 67.

It was a few shots too many for a first-round payout but represented the fourth straight tournament that he'd finished lap one inside the top 20.

In one of those he was second following Thursday's action at Pebble thanks to a 65 while a 67 put him seventh after round one in Phoenix.

Combine that ability to find an early groove with his performance on debut here last year and you have a bet at 70s.

Knapp finished fourth at PGA National 12 months ago and shot 66s in rounds two and four after starting out with a 68. He also closed with a 66 in Mexico last Sunday.

The 30-year-old is up and about early on Thursday, striking his opening tee-shot from the 1st at 07.18.

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