South African Open: Former Winner Fancied at 54/1

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Tournament History

Dating all the way back to 1893, the South African Open is the second oldest National Open in the world, with only the Open Championship, which was first staged back to 1860, dating back further.

The South African Open has been co-sanctioned between the Sunshine Tour and the DP World Tour since 1997, although the 2021 edition was revised as a sole-sanctioned Sunshine Tour event when COVID-19 travel restrictions in the UK prevented most DP World Tour players from playing, and there was no edition last year so Dean Burmester has had to wait almost 15 months to defend the title.

After two editions at the monstrously long Gary Player designed Blair Atholl in Johannesburg the tournament returns to the Durban Country Club for the first time since Ernie Els won the fifth of his five titles at the centenary edition 15 years ago.

Durban CC had always been a gem of a course so we're in for a treat but it's going to look very different this time around...

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Venue

Durban Country Club, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

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Course Details

Par 72 - 6691 yards

With a combination of lush coastal vegetation, sand dunes, out-of-bounds fences and stunning views of the Indian Ocean, Durban is a spectacular venue.

One of the defining characteristics of Durban Country Club are the massive undulations on some of the fairways, offering a typical links layout, but having undergone a massive restoration since it was last used, for the inaugural edition of the now defunct Jonsson Workwear Open in 2022, it's going to look very different.

The eight-minute video below details the alterations and explains why the changes were needed.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 10:00 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

 

2023 - Dean Burmester -11 9.08/1
2022 - Thriston Lawrence -16 26.025/1
2021 - Daniel van Tonder -16 32.031/1
2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -18 8.615/2 *
2020 - Branden Grace -21 25.024/1 *
2018- Louis Oosthuizen - 12 9.08/1
2017- Chris Paisley -21 400.0399/1
2017 - Graeme Storm -18 (playoff) 180.0179/1

*Two editions staged in 2020

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What Will it Take to Win the South African Open?

Fine links exponents have thrived at Durban and over the last 80 years Open Champions, Bobby Locke, Gary Player, Bob Charles, Ernie Els and Louis Oosthuizen have all won here.

The changes to the course are extensive but it's still a coastal links course that favours fine wind players and if the stats are to be believed, accuracy wins here over power.

I couldn't find any stats for the 2002 edition of this event, won by Tim Clark, a player renowned for his accuracy, but he ranked seventh for Driving Accuracy and third for Greens In Regulation when he romped to a six-stroke victory here three years later at 12/113.00 and the four subsequent course winners have ranked highly for those two metrics too.

Els ranked only 19^th for DA in this event in 2010 and Oosthuizen ranked only 18^th for that stat when winning the Volvo Golf Champions here in 2013 but he ranked second for DA when defending  that title 12 months later and the winner of the Jonsson Workwear Open three years ago, J.C Ritchie, ranked seventh for finding fairways.

Els topped the GIR rankings 15 years ago, Oosthuizen ranked eighth in 2013 and fourth a year later and Richie ranked third so finding fairways and greens has been the secret to success.

The changes are significant but with more water in play, if anything, it's going to reward the accurate types even more than it did historically. 

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Between 2012 and 2018, five of the six winners were from overseas but that's starting to look like a strange blip now.

Between 2002 and 2011, ten of the 11 winners were experienced South Africans and as you'll see form the list above, the last six editions have all gone the way of a relatively short-priced South African.

This title has continued to elude the US Masters winner, Charl Schwartzel, but most South African greats have got their hands on the trophy at least once and in the last 21 years, the aforementioned Clark, Trevor Immelman, Retief Goosen and of course, Els, have all won the event at least twice.

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Course Winner's Position Pre-Round Four

1996 Players Champ' - Wayne Westner - led by four
1997 Players Champ' - Warren Schutte - 2^nd - trailing by one
1998 SA Open - Ernie Els - led by a stroke
2002 SA Open - Tim Clark - led by two
2005 SA Open - Tim Clark - tied for the lead
2010 SA Open - Ernie Els - led by a stroke
2013 Volvo Golf Champ' - Louis Oosthuizen - 2^nd - trailing by five!
2014 Volvo Golf Champ' - Louis Oosthuizen - 4^th - trailing by two
2022 JW Open - J.C Richie - led by ten!

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In-Play Tactics

Pre-event favourite, Darren Clarke, finished fourth here 20 years ago having driven the 18^th green and putted out for eagle in round two to make the cut but up with the pace is the place to be as a rule.

In the nine events staged here over the last 30 years, six winners were in front with a round to go, and five have been leading or co-leading at halfway.

Oosthuizen, in 2013 and 2014, is the only one of the nine winners to be any further than a stroke adrift with a round to go.

He won in 2013 courtesy of a final round collapse by Scott Jamieson, who had led by five, and he overtook Tommy Fleetwood (who'd led by a stroke) and Joost Luiten and Victor Dubuisson to defend a year later.

Although trailing through 54 holes, Louis had been in front at halfway on both occasions.

Durban also hosted all seven editions of the now defunct Suncoast Classic on the Sunshine Tour between 2006 and 2012 and the last four winners were all in front with a round to go but like many Sunshine Tour events, the Suncoast Classic was staged over just 54 holes, so quite how relevant that form is - is debatable.

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Market Leaders

 

The defending champion, Dean Burmester, is the favourite and he's the only one towards the head of the market who I came close to backing.

Now 35, Burmester is no spring chicken, but he's been a prolific winner recently and he commands plenty of respect.

He won this event a week after winning the Joburg Open at the end of 2023 and was victorious again in his homeland on the Sunshine Tour in November last year.

He also won on the LIV Golf Tour in April last year and he arrives in fair form having finished fourth in Riyadh and 12^th in Adelaide on the LIV circuit.

His course form figures, reading MC-MC-29, aren't great but it's old form now and can probably be ignored.

The recent Bahrain Championship winner, Laurie Canter, is the only other player in the field trading at less than 33/134.00 but he makes no appeal.

He ranked only 50^th for Putting Average and 51^st for Strokes Gained: Putting when he won in Bahrain and his putting numbers over all aren't great.

He finished 35^th last time out at the Qatar Masters and missed the cut here in the 2010 edition of the South African Open.

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Former Winner Fancied

 

I've got at least one outsider for the Find Me a 100 Winner column but my sole selection for now is the 2021 South African Open winner, Daniel van Tonder who has begun 2025 brilliantly.

After finishing runner-up on the Sunshine Tour, the prolific South African won back-to-back HotelPlanner Tour events and he's finished sixth and ninth in each of his last two starts.

The 33-year-old finished 23^rd in the Suncoast Classic here way back in 2012 on his sole start at Durban Country Club but this looks a great fit if he holds his form.

Having ranked inside the top-10 for Driving Accuracy in each of his last four starts and second, first, seventh and 20^th for Greens In Regulation, he should be able to keep himself out of trouble. He's been putting brilliantly too.

He topped the Putting Average stats when finishing second in his first start in 2025 and in his four subsequent starts he's ranked third, eighth, 16^th and first.

He's drifted all the way out to 60.059/1 and I really can't see why.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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