Cognizant Classic: Lowry the favourite in Florida

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Greens in Regulation the key stats

• Decent event for longshots

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Tournament History

First staged in 1972 and originally known as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic, the Cognizant Classic or the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches to give it it's full name, was sponsored by Honda and known as the Honda Classic between 1982 and 2023. 

The tournament switched to its current venue 18 years ago when Mark Wilson won a four-man playoff after the event had run into a Monday finish.

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Venue

PGA National Champion Course, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

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Course Details

Par 71, 7,147 yards
Stroke index in 2024 - 70.08

The Tom and George Fazio-designed PGA National was extensively reworked by Jack Nicklaus in 1990, it was again tweaked in 2014, and there were significant changes prior to the off 12 months ago when the previously tough par four 10^th was changed into a par five.

In addition to the par change on the 10^th, a reduction in the length of the rough, from three inches to two and quarter, and the largely benign conditions, resulted in the course playing easier than it had for many a year.

Having changed form a 508 yard par four to a 530 yard par five, the 10^th was the easiest hole on the course last year, averaging just 4.23, so it's debatable as to whether it was a sensible transformation.

Following Austin Eckroat's victory in 17-under-par, the last four winners have all reached double-digits under-par but in the 18 years that the event's been staged here the winner has only reached 10-under-par or better seven times and on four of those seven occasions, the winner was the only player to reach double-digits under-par.

It's a heavily bunkered course and water is in-play on 13 holes. As most courses are in Florida, PGA National is laid to Bermuda and the greens usually run at around 12 on the stimpmeter.

The PGA National is famous for its intimidating finish which includes the three-hole stretch at 15, 16 and 17, known as the Bear Trap. 

The par three 17^th was the hardest par three on the PGA Tour in 2018, averaging more than half a stroke over par at 3.533, but it played much easier in 2019 (3.09) after the addition of a new tee-box, positioned 15 yards nearer to the putting surface, and it averaged 3.19 last year. 

It's still a tough finish though and it's a tough course all round if the wind blows. 

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:45 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

 

2024 - Austin Eckroat -17 220.0219/1
2023 - Chris Kirk -14 44.043/1 (playoff)
2022 - Sepp Straka -10 200.0199/1
2021 - Matt Jones -12 110.0109/1
2020 - Sungjae Im -6 34.033/1
2019 - Keith Mitchell -9 300.0299/1
2018 - Justin Thomas -8 13.012/1 (playoff)
2017 - Rickie Fowler -12 20.019/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Cognizant Classic? 

In the six years between 2014 and 2019, 12^th was the worst any winner ranked for Driving Distance (Adam Scott in 2016), so length is clearly an advantage, but I'd favour accuracy given recent results... 

Eckroat ranked third for Driving Accuracy when winning last year, Tyler Duncan, who finished third in 2023, ranked second and Justin Suh, in tied fifth two years ago, hit more fairways than anyone else. The defending champ, Sepp Straka, who finished alongside Suh, ranked fourth, a year after topping the DA stats when winning and the runner-up three years ago Shane Lowry, ranked fourth for DA.

The last three winners have ranked second, fifth and fourth for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and the four previous winners all ranked first so that's a key stat and so too is Greens in Regulation.

Eckroat topped the GIR stats 12 months ago and the aforementioned Straka and Suh, in tied fifth in 2023, ranked first and second. The winner two years ago, Chris Kirk, ranked seventh and 12 of the 18 winners here to date have ranked inside the top ten for GIR.

The 2014 winner, Russell Henley, ranked tied for 26th for GIR and that's the worst any winner has ranked but two of the three men he beat in the playoff, Ryan Palmer and Russell Knox, ranked tied first for GIR.

The first three home 12 months ago ranked third, first and second for Putting Average but this is still one of the few events in which a great week with the putter isn't essential and only six of the last 14 winners have ranked inside the 10 for PA.

Although he ranked as high as third for Putting Average, Eckroat ranked only 16^th for Strokes Gained: Putting and the previous six winners ranked ninth, fourth, 28^th, 38^th, 38^th and 35^th for that stat.

If there's anything other than flat calm conditions, excellent wind exponents usually come to the fore. 

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Is There an Angle In?

Although PGA National is not a links course, it's an exposed and wind-affected venue so the fact that we've seen three Open Champions win here is perhaps not surprising. And that was very nearly four three years ago. The 2019 Open champ, Shane Lowry, who was tied for the lead through 54 holes last year, was matched at a low of 1.444/9.

Although he's never won a major, Rickie Fowler has a great links pedigree, and a decent bank of Open Championship form and Open form came to the fore nine years ago too. The winner, Adam Scott, and the runner-up, Sergio Garcia, haven't won an Open but they're both great links players and they've both traded at odds-on to win the world's greatest tournament. Scotty has a decent bank of form at the Sony Open too and that's the best angle-in.

Mark Wilson, Ernie Els, Russell Henley, and Justin Thomas have all won this event and the Sony Open. And the 2023 winner, Kirk, has finished second and third at the Sony Open.

Ryan Palmer, who was one of the playoff protagonists 11 years ago, has also won a Sony in Hawaii, the 2016 winner, Adam Scott, has finished second at Waialae, and Rory Sabbatini, the 2011 winner, has twice finished runner-up at the Sony Open. 

Brendan Steele, who traded at odds-on in both the 2020 and 2021 editions of the Sony, has finished fourth and third here. 

Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony, is also a wind-affected Bermuda track and the two courses clearly correlate very nicely. 

Matt Jones' only previous PGA Tour victory was the Houston Open at the Golf Club of Houston, which staged the tournament between 2006 and 2019, and although the form's a bit old now, that's a course that correlates nicely with the PGA National too.

This is a stern test so it's perhaps not all that surprising that major champions fare well. Justin Thomas became the sixth major champion to win at the venue in 11 years when he took the title in 2018, joining Ernie Els, Y.E Yang, Rory McIlroy, Padraig Harrington and Adam Scott.

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Is There an Identikit Winner? 

Between 2016 and 2018, all three winners were fairly well-fancied but this is a decent event for outsiders. 

Eckroat was a 220.0219/1 chance last year, the 2022 victor, Sepp Straka, was also matched at as high as 220.0219/1 before the off, Matt Jones hit a high of 140.0139/1 before the get-go in 2021, the 2019 winner, Keith Mitchell, went off at around 300.0299/1, having been matched at a high of 400.0399/1. As many as 11 of the 18 winners at PGA National have gone off at a triple-figure price. 

Americans won the first 21 editions of this event, and they've won seven of the last 12 editions but since Nick Price broke the initial US run in 1994, an overseas player has won 16 of the last 31 editions and ten of the 18 winners at this venue have been from overseas. 

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four 

2024 - Austin Eckroat - tied for the lead 4.94/1
2023 - Chris Kirk - led by two strokes 2.01/1
2022 - Sepp Straka T2nd - trailing by five 24.023/1
2021 - Matt Jones - led by three strokes 2.245/4
2020 - Sungjae Im T5th - trailing by three 15.014/1
2019 - Keith Mitchell T2nd - trailing by one 9.89/1
2018 - Justin Thomas T2nd - trailing by one 3.052/1
2017 - Rickie Fowler led by four strokes 1.548/15

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In-Play Tactics

History suggests you have to be up with the pace at PGA National and the 2020 winner, Sungjae Im, is the only winner of the event here to be outside the top top-seven places at halfway. He sat ninth. 

Ernie Els, in 2008, and Straka in 2022, both sat sixth and five off the lead at halfway, but every other event winner here has been within three strokes of the lead after 36 holes. 

History may suggest that you need to be in the van at halfway but a mediocre first round has been overcome on several occasions. 

Mark Wilson sat tied for 53^rd and seven adrift after round one and two of the last five winners - Im and Straka - were outside the top-60 after the opening day's play. Im trailed by six and Straka seven. Kirk sat tied for 27^th and four adrift after round one a couple of years ago but he was up to second and just one back at halfway. 

If you plan to bet in-running, especially on Sunday, bear in mind that the par five 18th ranked as the second easiest hole on the course last year but the finish to PGA National is tough enough when you're not in contention but when there's a title on the line it's brutal. As a result, we've witnessed plenty of in-play carnage here.

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Market Leaders

Having finished second, fifth and fourth in the last three editions of the Cognizant Classic, Shane Lowry is the narrow favourite over the 2014 winner, Russell Henley.

Lowry finished only 39^th in the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines last time out but he doesn't have a great record there and he was third in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his penultimate start.

He's no bigger than 20/121.00 on the High Street so 23.022/1 is a very fair price but I'm happy to swerve him and all the market leaders before the off.

Henley loves it here and has only missed the weekend once since taking the title 11 years ago, with a best subsequent finish being third in 2021. But he was disappointing last time out, finishing alongside Lowry at Torrey Pines.

The 2022 winner, Sepp Straka, is currently third best at 28.027/1 but having finished fifth when defending in 2023, he missed the cut last year and last time out in the Genesis at Torrey Pines.

That wasn't too surprising given his form figures there prior to the Genesis read 13-MC-32-16-MC and he could well bounce back here.

Prior to his weekend off at Torrey, he was in fine fettle, winning The American Express, finishing seventh at Pebble and 15^th in the Phoenix Open.

With course form figures reading 2-MC-MC-29-36-4-4-MC, and current form figures reading 21-MC-2-12, Daniel Berger is the only other player trading at less than 30.029/1 and that's short enough for me.

Berger is back in form and making giant strides having only returned to the game last January after 18 months off with a debilitating back injury. But he's just a bit too short for me at less than 30.029/1.

I was tempted by the likes of Jordan Spieth, Kurt Kitayama, Alex Smalley and Brian Harmon but I've eventually decided to go with just a couple of longshots so I'll be back with the Find Me a 100 Winner column later today.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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