The Punter's In-Play Blog: Odds-on Hatton looks tough to beat

• Tyrrell leads by a stroke as he bids to rack up the hattrick

• Fleetwood chanced to win from off the pace again

• Leader looks opposable in Mississippi

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09:30 - October 6, 2024

Nicolas Colsaerts was matched at 1.875/6 to win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship after making this remarkable albatross two at the par five 16^th (his seventh hole of round three) at Kingsbarns yesterday.

ALBATROSS @NicoColsaerts makes an albatross at the 16th at Kingsbarns! #dunhilllinks pic.twitter.com/augYNri4kF

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) October 5, 2024

The two at 16 was followed by a birdie at the 17th which saw him stretch his lead to five but a double-bogey at the 18^th halted his progress and he was gradually reeled in by the two-time tournament winner, Tyrrell Hatton, who went on to tie the course record at St Andrews.

Having played his first six holes in five-under-par, the Englishman parred five in-a-row before birdies at 12, 13, 14, 15, 17 and 18, saw him hit the front.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:20.

Tyrrell Hatton -22 1.434/9
Nicolas Colsaerts -21 6.411/2
Tom Vaillant -19 17.016/1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen -17 40.039/1
Tommy Fleetwood -16 34.033/1
James Ashfield -16 350.0349/1
-15 and 50.049/1 bar

It's very difficult to look past Hatton.

As many as nine of the last 12 winners of this event were leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and three 54-hole leaders have been beaten in a playoff, so this is a hard event at which to make up ground.

Hatton has twice converted a 54-hole lead in this event, and he's also converted from the front at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour and at the DP World Tour's flagship event - the BMW PGA Championship.

He also won the LIV Golf Nashville event in June by six, having led by three with a round to go so other than having to back up yesterday's low round, which is notoriously difficult, there's nothing to suggest he's vulnerable in front.

Having backed Hatton after round one, I'm confident he'll deliver the goods, but I've also added Tommy Fleetwood at 34.033/1.

Much better from off the pace than he when leading or close to the lead on Sunday, Fleetwood has won from five, six and even eight strokes back with a round to so I thought he was worth adding at a juicy price.

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Over at the Sanderson Farms Championship, in-play picks, Patton Kizzire and Jacob Bridgeman, both finished their third rounds poorly and it's the original favourite, Keith Mitchell, that shows the way.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:25.

Keith Mitchell -20 2.1411/10
Beau Hossler -19 4.03/1
Kevin Yu -18 7.613/2
Lucas Glover -16 24.023/1
Jacob Bridgeman -16 42.041/1
Bud Cauley -16 42.041/1
Ryan Fox -15 60.059/1
Daniel Berger -15 65.064/1
Michael Thorbjornsen -15 80.079/1
-14 and 110.0109/1 bar

This is the third time that Keith Mitchell has held a clear lead with a round to go on the PGA Tour and he looks opposable if the first two efforts are anything to go by.

Having led by two, he finished poorly at the Wells Fargo Championship to finish third, beaten by two, in 2021 and he was hopeless at the Valspar Championship back in March this year, where he'd also led by two after 54 holes.

A 77 on Sunday saw him plumet down the field to eventually finish tied for 17^th, beaten by eight, and I'm more than happy to take him on.

Ben Griffin was beaten in a playoff last year, having led by three with a round to go, but since Nick Taylor won here ten years ago, having trailed by four in fifth place, every course winner has been sitting inside the top-three places and Taylor and last year's winner, Luke List, are the only two victors to be trailing by more than a stroke with a round to go.

Beau Hossler is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but the 29-year-old has always been fairly consistent in-contention and at 3/14.00, he looks like a viable option to the leader given the stats.

Kevin Yu, who trails by two, is also looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour and he looks a fair price at more than 6/17.00 but I just prefer Hossler, who has a bit more experience of being in-contention.

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08:20 - October 5, 2024

Although we've reached the halfway stage of the Alfred Dunhill Championship, it's very hard to gauge exactly how we stand.

The field play St Andrews, Kingsbarns and Carnoustie in rotation over the first three days before everyone that makes the 54 hole cut heads to St Andrews tomorrow, so although there are only two rounds to go, where you play today could be key.

As highlighted yesterday, it's now 12 years since anyone that started the event at Kingsbarns went on to win (Branden Grace in 2012) but with six of the top eight at halfway playing that rotation, we may see that that run broken this year.

In theory, provided the weather is a bit kinder than it was yesterday, when the wind picked up more than it had on Thursday, playing Kingsbarns today should be a plus.

The co-leader, Nicolas Colsaerts (-14) (tied with fellow pre-event 1000.0999/1 chance Cameron John), plays Kingsbarns today and so does Daniel Hillier, who sits tied for fifth and two off the lead, but the other six players inside the top eight places are all at Carnoustie today.

Kingsbarns has been the easiest of the three courses on each of the first two days, but the scoring changed dramatically yesterday when the wind picked up.

Kingsbarns averaged 70.05 on Friday, up 2.17 strokes from Thursday's 67.88, and that was with all the elite players playing there yesterday.

In contrast, St Andrews averaged 70.61, compared to 68.93 on Thursday, an increase of 1.68, and the smallest difference in scoring came at Carnoustie.

The cream of the crop began the event at Carnoustie on Thursday, but they only averaged 70.66 in the dead calm conditions and the average there yesterday was 71.05, an increase of just 0.39 of a stroke.

As many as six of the last ten winners have played Carnoustie on day one and Kingsbarns on day two, before heading to St Andrews for the weekend but the English duo of Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood, who both sit tied for ninth and three off the lead, are the only two players playing that rotation that are inside the top 21 places at halfway.

Those two dominate the market, and having backed Hatton yesterday, I'm sticking with him, but at a double-figure price, given he tees it up at Kingsbarns today, Colsaerts is a tempting price.

The 41-year-old Belgian rarely contends nowadays but the last time he led at halfway, at the Open de France in 2019, he went on to win, and as a former Ryder Cupper with three previous victories on the DP World Tour, an argument could be made that he's being underestimated.

There are some huge prices about some of the leaders but I'm going to stick with the stats and see where we are after round three.

Playing the Home of Golf on consecutive days over the weekend has proved beneficial over the years and I suspect it will again this time around.

Over on the PGA Tour, at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the first-round leader, David Skinns, shot a one-under-par 71 around the Country Club of Jackson yesterday afternoon (11 shots worse than Thursday's 60!) and he now trails Beau Hossler by two and Daniel Berger by one.

Alongside Skinns in a tie for third is the original event favourite, Keith Mitchell, and it's great to see Gary Woodland just three off the lead in a tie for sixth, given he had a brain tumour removed last September.

As highlighted yesterday, all ten previous winners at this venue were inside the top ten places at halfway and the one I like is Jacob Bridgeman, who sits tied for third after rounds of 65 and 66 over the first two days.

The 24-year-old rookie led the 3M Open after round one back in July (finished tied 19^th) and he was a very decent 12^th at the Wyndham Championship in August.

It's a tricky leaderboard to evaluate, packed with players I wouldn't want to be siding with, so given he's no bigger than 14/115.00 on the High Street, and that he's generally 12/113.00, I was happy to add Bridgeman to the portfolio at 19.018/1.

Rookies and Korn Ferry graduates have a great record in the event and given he's from one of the southern states (South Carolina), that's another box ticked.

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08:00 - October 4, 2024

The first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship has been completed and England's David Skinns leads after a spectacular 12-under-par 60 around the Country Club of Jackson but he'll feel it really should have been a 59 given the chance he gave himself on the ninth (his 18^th of the round).

From 9 feet for a 59 .... @SkinnsyGolf | @Sanderson_Champ pic.twitter.com/PY0EvicwW5

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 3, 2024

Ryan Armour in 2017, and Cameron Champ 12 months later, both won the event having led after round one but we've seen three victors, Cody Gribble in 2016, Sebastian Munoz in 2019, and Mackenzie Hughes two years ago, win here after an opening round in the 70s and after his 69 on day one, the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, sat tied for 42^nd and seven off the lead so it's a wide open event at this stage.

Every winner here has been inside the top-ten at halfway so we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow but I still found two players I was happy to side with - the Procore winner, Paton Kizzire, and Chandler Philips, who I wanted to include in the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

Both men shot seven-under-par 65s yesterday to sit tied fifth and both are no bigger than 28/129.00 on the High Street so I was more than happy to back them at 38.037/1 and 40.039/1.

Kizzire has never won back-to-back, and few players manage to achieve that feat, but looking back on his form over the years, he tends to play really well in little spells so it's no surprise to see him playing nicely again here after his facile five stroke victory in California.

Kizzire will be full of confidence and could be dangerous and as stated in the Find Me a 100 Winner column, I was hoping Philips would hit a triple figure price. He did eventually, but frustratingly, not until late on -on Wednesday, after the column had been published.

The second round of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is just about to start but before it does, here are the hole averages from day one.

St Andrews 68.93
Carnoustie 70.66
Kingsbarns 67.88

As you can see, Carnoustie played significantly tougher than the other two tracks and Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton should make significant moves around Kingsbarns today.

Having backed Hatton last night at 5.04/1, I'm happy to go in again at 5.49/2 so he's now onside at average of 5.24/1.

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18:10 - October 3, 2024

The first round of the Alfred Dunhill Championship has just finished and in benign conditions, the scoring has been expectedly low.

South African veteran, Darren Fichardt, shows the way after an impressive 11-under-par 61 around Kingsbarns and he's one of eight inside the top 11 places after round one to have begun the event there but it's unlikely that any of them will kick on for the win.

As highlighted in the preview, it's 12 years since someone starting at Kingsbarns went on to win (Brandon Grace) and he shot even lower than Fichardt (60) but history tells us starting at either St Andrews or Carnoustie is the place to begin the tournament.

Scanning a bit further down the leaderboard, there are 26 players within five strokes of the lead and given 19 of the 22 tournament winners to date have been within four strokes of the lead after round one, given the benign weather forecast for the next three days, we probably can't look much further down the leaderboard than that.

Of the 26 players within five of Fichardt, only two played the toughest of the three courses - Carnoustie - today and they're the two to beat.

The pre-event favourite, Jon Rahm, and the two-time tournament winner, Tyrrell Hatton, both shot seven-under-par 65s to trail by just four and they understandably dominate the market.

I thought Rory McIlroy was over-priced before the off at 9.08/1 and he did shorten up to 8.07/1 yesterday, but he's got work to do after a lacklustre three-under-par 69 around Carnoustie today that sees him trailing by eight in a tie for 73^rd.

Rory may well make a big move tomorrow but I'm far from convinced he's a reasonable price at around 16/117.00 with so much on his plate and Rahm looks fractionally short at less than 5/23.50.

It's very early days and I'll be back again tomorrow with another look at halfway, but I can't help but think Hatton's a reasonable price at 4/15.00.

He missed the cut on the first two occasions he played in the event but with tournament figures since reading 1-1-2-15-2-7, there's an argument to be made that he's more likely to hang around than Rahm, who missed the cut here on his only previous appearance in 2019.

The first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship is well under way and I'll take a look at that one tomorrow.

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Alfred Dunhill Pre-Event Pick:
Rory McIlroy @ 9.08/1

In-Play Pick:
Tyrell Hatton @ 5.24/1

Sanderson Farms Championship Pre-Event Pick:
Taylor Moore @ 55.054/1

In-Play Picks:
Patton Kizzire @ 38.037/1
Chandler Philips @ 40.039/1
Jacob Bridgeman @ 19.018/1

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