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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hubbard poised to get off the mark in Mississippi

Steven Rawlings
01 October 2022

Third round leader, Mark Hubbard

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Hubbard and Hughes hold sway in Mississippi
Favourite a fair price to convert
In-play pick, Higgo, still on the premises

08:35 -October 2, 2022

There's just one round to go at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Dave Tindall's 100/1 each-way selection, Mark Hubbard, leads by a stroke. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:25.

Mark Hubbard -15 3.55/2
Mackenzie Hughes -14 4.57/2
Scott Stallings -12 8.88/1
Sepp Straka -12 12.011/1
Garrick Higgo -12 15.014/1
Keegan Bradley -11 18.5
Nick Hardy -11 24.023/1
-10 and 38.037/1 bar

With a gap of two strokes to the trio tied for third, both the front two look fairly priced this morning.

This event has been staged at Jackson Country Club since 2014 and most of the evidence so far points to the frontrunners.

Nick Taylor won the first renewal here having sat fifth and four off the pace with a round to go and Sungjae Im made it to a playoff from the same position in 2019, before losing to Sebastian Munoz in extra time, but all seven winners since Taylor have been leading or within a stroke of the lead with a round to go.

Hubbard is yet to win on the PGA Tour but his record when leading through 54 holes is decent.

He converted a one-stroke lead on the Canadian Tour nine years ago and he won the Suncoast Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour three years ago, having led by two through 54 holes. On the only other occasion he's led with a round to go he was beaten by a stroke when he shot 75 in round four of the United Leasing Championship eight years ago, having led by two with a round to go.

And if that's a tournament that's ringing a bell, it was highlighted in the preview as one staged at a course that's correlated really well with Jackson - Victoria National.

Hughes' record in-contention is reasonable but arguably regressive.

He fell from tied first to 15th at the US Open at Torrey Pines last June and he finished only eighth at the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2019 and tenth at the BMW Championship in 2020 having sat second and third (trailing by two) but he won the RSM Classic in extra time in 2016 (his sole success on the PGA Tour) wire-to-wire and he converted a one-stroke lead at the Price Cutter Charity Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2016.

Yesterday's in-play pick, Garrick Higgo, is on the premises, despite a hiccup just after the turn in round three.

Having found the back of the par five 11th green in two, he three-putted for par from 30 feet and then double-bogeyed 12 but he bounced back nicely after that with birdies at 14, 15 and 18. Trailing by three, I certainly haven't given up on him but last season's Honda Classic winner, Sepp Straka, is possibly the best value of the three tied for third.

I prefer the Austrian's chances to those of Scott Stallings who finished poorly yesterday having led for much of the third round (bogeyed both 16 and 18) but odds of around 5/2 look fair for the leader given all the evidence.

19:45 -October 1, 2022

There's just a round to go at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and pre-event 140.0139/1 chance, Richard Mansell, leads by four. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:40.

Richard Mansell -15 2.1411/10
Alex Noren -11 7.06/1
Ryan Fox -11 8.07/1
Daniel Gavins -11 18.017/1
Antoine Rozner -10 20.019/1
Niklas Norgaard Moller -10 24.023/1
Callum Shinkwin -9 44.043/1
-8 and 42.041/1 bar

After his miracle round around St Andrews in the foul weather on Friday and a very solid 67 at Carnoustie today, Richard Mansell is most certainly the man to beat with just one round to go.

Richard Mansell at Carnoustie.jpg

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, eight of the last ten winners and 12 of the 20 champions to date have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and three 54-hole leaders have been beaten in a playoff so in front is the place to be.

The last man to lead by four strokes with a round to go on the DP World Tour was Ewen Ferguson at the Kenya Open back in March and around the tight and fiddly host course, Muthaiga, he tumbled to tied eighth but converting from the front around wide-open St Andrews is a different matter.

Kennie Ferrie threw away a five -stroke 54-hole lead in this event back in 2005 when he shot 77 on Sunday but we've seen eight others lead by at least three strokes and they all converted. And four-stroke 54-hole leaders on the DP World Tour have a strong record too...

Since 1996, we've seen 40 players lead by four with a round to go in a 72-hole stroke-play event and 28 of them went on to win. That's a strike-rate of 70% suggesting Mansell's a fair price but Alex Noren and Ryan Fox, who will be alongside him in the final three-ball, are huge dangers.

Noren hit the front halfway through round three and he's been matched at a low of 3.02/1 but he was a bit disappointing after he'd birdied the ninth - playing the next seven holes in two-over-par before birdying the 18th.

If forced to pick an alternative to the leader it would by Fox, who would be an emotional winner given his previous partner in the event was the late Shane Warne, but I'm happy to leave the event alone now.

Mansell looks a fair price but I'll be at the Manchester derby tomorrow (previewed here) so I won't be able to monitor any positions so I'm happy to just cheer on yesterday's pick, Callum Shinkwin, who needs something very special to figure.

The third round of the Sanderson Farms Championship is well underway on the PGA Tour and it's live on Sky Sports at 21:00. I'll be back in the morning to look at that one with a round to go.

13:05 -October 1, 2022

We've reached the halfway stage of the Sanderson Farms Championship and Belgium's Thomas Detry, is tied for the lead with Canada's Mackenzie Hughes. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 13:00.

Thomas Detry -10 6.411/2
Mackenzie Hughes -10 9.417/2
Sepp Straka -9 8.88/1
Scott Stallings -8 10.09/1
Mark Hubbard -8 20.019/1
Garrick Higgo -8 28.027/1
Davis Riley -7 14.013/1
Nick Hardy -7 27.026/1
Stephan Jaeger -7 32.031/1
-6 and 21.020/1 bar

The Sanderson Farms Championship switched to Jackson Country Club in 2014 and in the previous renewals there all eight winners were inside the top-ten at halfway but only two of the eight were leading or co-leading at halfway. Ryan Armour led by a stroke before winning in 2017 and Cameron Champ was tied for the lead a year later.

Last year's winner, Sam Burns, was three adrift at this stage but the three winners before him all trailed by five and the 2015 winner, Peter Malnati, was six back at halfway.

Co-leader, Thomas Detry, makes absolutely no appeal given his poor record in-contention on the DP World Tour and it's hard to get enthusiastic about any of the contenders.

The home state hero and first round leader, Davis Riley, looks fairly priced if the putter warms up over the weekend but the one I like at the prices is the young South African, Garrick Higgo, at 28.027/1.

At just 23, Higgo has already won three times on the DP World Tour (that's three times more than Detry!) and once on the PGA Tour. He won the once only staged Palmetto Championship in June last year.

He's been in truly atrocious form, missing his last five cuts, and he went off at around 400.0399/1 this week, but he's in-the-mix now and he's been ruthless in-contention previously.

In what looks a really tricky event, I'm more than happy to risk a few pounds on Higgo at a big price given he trails by only two.

19:25 -September 30, 2022

With thanks to a monumental effort by the grounds staff, we've reached the halfway stage of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship but it's still a messy looking picture to ponder.

It was some effort by all concerned to keep all three courses playable today as the wind howled and the rain fell. Water was collecting on the greens and even though they sensibly opted for an early shotgun start at all three courses, it was still some feat to keep the tournament on track.

As expected, the scoring was high and the first-round leader, Romain Langasque, who equalled the course record at St Andrews yesterday (61), was one of 34 players to shoot a round in the 80s. And that's not counting the amateurs!

Only three men, across all the three venues, managed to break 70 today.

The halfway leader, Richard Mansell, shot an incredible four-under-par 68 at St Andrews and Alex Noren, who now sits second, and Matt Fitzpatrick's brother, Alex, both shot three-under-par 69s around Kingsbarns, which, according to the scoring averages below, transpired to be the least difficult of the three courses.

Second round scoring averages
St Andrews 77.42
Carnoustie 76.97
Kingsbarns 75.84

Richard mansell Dunhill.jpg

We aren't going to see anything as bad tomorrow as we witnessed today but there are still winds of 20 mph forecasted (gusting up to 30mph) so nobody can relax just yet. Here's the latest standings with the prices to back on the exchange at 19:20 and the courses each contender is going to play in round three, together with their tee-times. And just a reminder, everyone that makes the 54-hole cut tomorrow night returns to St Andrews for round four.

Richard Mansell -10 6.86/1 (Carnoustie 9:55)
Alex Noren -8 5.14/1 (St Andrews 9:55)
Antoine Rozner -7 12.011/1 (Kingsbarns 9:22)
Niklas Norgaard Moller -7 29.028/1 (Carnoustie 9:55)
Robert MacIntyre -6 8.615/2 (St Andrews 10:39)
Daniel Gavins -6 50.049/1 (Kingsbarns 10:39)
Callum Shinkwin -5 26.025/1 (Kingsbarns 9:11)
Tapio Pulkkanen -5 36.035/1 (St Andrews 10:39)
Julien Brun -5 100.099/1 (Carnoustie 9:44)
-4 and 29.028/1 bar

I've listed the tee times as they may well be relevant given the forecast suggests the earlier you start tomorrow the better, with the wind predicted to pick up, and that's not great news for the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy.

Trading at 29.028/1, Rory sits in a tie for 41st and nine off the lead, and he makes little appeal at that price given he doesn't tee off at St Andrews tomorrow until 11:23.

His good rounds in poor weather are few and far between and looking at the previous tournament results, he's already too far back...

The last seven winners have all been inside the top-five places at halfway and in 20 previous editions, only four winners have been outside the top-ten, and one of the four, Lee Westwood, was only trailing by three through 36 holes.

Paul Lawrie won the inaugural edition having trailed by eight, Stephen Gallacher trailed by six in a tie for 11th in 2004 and David Howell beat Peter Uihlein in extra time nine years ago having sat tied 20th at halfway, trailing by six, so it is possible to win from off the pace, but nobody has been as far back as McIlroy and claimed the prize.

Trailing by two, Alex Noren is the correct favourite and having backed him in the event umpteen times previously, I'm frustrated to see him in-the-mix again.

Odds of around 4/1 are perfectly fair but there are nagging negatives. He sat third here and two off the lead when a well-backed pre-event 25/1 chance in 2016 but he shot 73 around St Andrews on Saturday before eventually finishing 11th and on the last two occasions he's sat second at halfway (at the Turkish Airlines Open in 2019 and the Byron Nelson Championship on the PGA Tour in May last year) he finished 28th and 21st!

The recent Italian Open winner, Robert MacIntyre, makes more appeal than the leader, Mansell, but the one I like at this stage is the recent Cazoo Open winner, Callum Shinkwin, who was tenth in the event in 2019 after an extremely poor start.

Shinkwin wins in Wales.jpg

He sat tied for 94th and ten off the lead at halfway before a bogey-free weekend at St Andrews saw him get to within four of the winner, Victor Perez.

Shinkwin has a nice early start at the easiest of the three venues tomorrow, Kingsbarns, and I thought he was a fair price at 27.026/1.

I was going to look at the Sanderson Farms Championship this morning but a trip to the dentist was more of an ordeal than expected so I'll take a look in the morning now, once they've reached the halfway stage.

18:25 -September 29, 2022

Day one of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is done and dusted and three Frenchmen dominate the early leaderboard.

Playing the back-nine first, Romain Langasque, shot 28 on the front-nine to post a course record equalling 11-under-par 61 around St Andrews, Frederic Lacroix posted a ten-under-par 62 around Kingsbarns and Antoine Rozner sits alongside Denmark's Niklas Norgaard Moller in a tie for third after shooting 63 around St Andrews.

Romain langasque at St andrews.jpg

Rory McIlroy, who was matched at a low of just 3.814/5 as he played his first eight holes around Carnoustie in four-under-par, still heads the market despite playing his last ten holes in level-par but the question is now, what will tomorrow bring?

The forecast is so bad that there'll be a shotgun start at 8:30 tomorrow morning at all three venues and the jury is out as to where is the best or worst place to be tomorrow.

There's an argument to be made that Kingsbarns could be the worst as it's more exposed, but I'm not convinced, and I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Traditionally, Carnoustie has always been the toughest of the three venues and that was again the case today...

Carnoustie averaged 70.98, St Andrews 69.23, and Kingsbarns 69. And all the market leaders were at Carnoustie today.

I added to my pre-event picks this morning on the strength of the forecasts, laying Rory for a top-20 finish but I'm not doing anything else yet. It makes sense to see what tomorrow brings.

Layed Rory for a top-20 finish at 1.4. Got a feeling he's going to hate this weather and he's failed to make the top-20 in three of his last five appearances in the event. He appears to either contend or switch off.
? Steve Rawlings (@SteveThePunter) September 29, 2022

The morning wave are just finishing up their opening rounds at the Sanderson Farms Championship and I'll have a look at the state of play there after round one tomorrow.

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 20.019/1
Tommy Fleetwood @ 20/1 (each-way)

In-Play Pick:
Callum Shinkwin @ 27.026/1

Sanderson Farms Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Justin Suh @ 70.069/1

In-Play Pick:
Garrick Higgo @ 28.027/1

Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2u Thriston Lawrence @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Padraig Harrington @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Oliver Wilson @ 240.0239/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 2u Hayden Buckley @ 150.0149/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4