Alfred Dunhill Links Championship: Tyrrell and Tommy to contest again

Tournament History

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the DP World Tour's only pro-am. It's only been in existence since 2001 but it feels like an established tradition, and this will be the 21st edition.

A stellar line-up of pros and celebs do battle over three iconic links venues over four days, with those who make the cut after round three getting to play this year's Open Championship venue, St Andrews, for a second time on Sunday.

Event Structure

Each pro is partnered by one amateur and the teams of two each play the three separate links courses (detailed below) in rotation over the first three days. The cut is made after the third round, when the top 60 pros and ties and the top 20 teams progress to the final round at St Andrews on Sunday.

Venues and Course Details

St Andrews (Old Course), Fife, Scotland

Par 72, 7,318 yards
Hole averages in 2021 - 71.4

Affectionately known as the 'The Old Lady', St Andrews is the course every golfer wants to play. It hosts the Open Championship every five years, it's universally referred to as 'the home of golf' and, like all links courses, it plays very differently depending on the weather. In benign conditions on day four five years ago, runner-up, Ross Fisher, fired an 11-under-par 61 to break the course record.

Finally.... Thank you @DPWorldTour @dunhilllinks pic.twitter.com/cvDedVCaLw

-- Ross Fisher (@RossFisher) September 26, 2022

The par four 17th hole, known as the 'road hole', is the toughest on the course and a par there is always acceptable. It averaged 4.5 last year. The back-nine is tougher than the front-nine and the toughest stretch on the course is between holes 11 and 17. The greens at St Andrews are usually set to run at around 10 on the stimpmeter.

Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland

Par 72, 7,394 yards
Hole averages in 2021 - 73.42

Carnoustie has been used for the Open Championship eight times to date and it was the scene of Francesco Molinari's magnificent triumph four years ago. On the previous occasion, in 2007, Padraig Harrington edged out Sergio Garcia in a play-off, but it's best remembered as the venue where Jean van de Velde lost the plot in 1999 when on the 72nd hole, he blew a three-shot lead after finding the Barry Burn.

Often referred to as Carnasty, Carnoustie is also famous for its treacherous pot bunkers and it's the toughest of the three venues faced but the set-up this week, because they have to avoid making the amateurs looking foolish, is nowhere near as tough as it is at the Open. Tommy Fleetwood shot 63 to break the course record in this event five years ago.

The finish is tough and 17 and 18 were the two toughest on the course last year. The par four 17th averaged 4.42 and the 18th 4.47 so a par-par finish is more than acceptable.

The greens at Carnoustie are expected to run at around 10.5 on the stimpmeter.

Kingsbarns, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland

Par 72, 7,227 yards
Hole averages in 2021 - 71.87

The newest of the three venues and located just seven miles from St Andrews, Kingsbarns is a Kyle Philips design that opened to much acclaim in 2000. With generous fairways and few water hazards, it's not a stern test in good weather. The 2012 winner, Branden Grace, opened with a round of 60 at Kingsbarns.

The greens at Kingsbarns usually run at around 9.5 on the stimpmeter.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 12:00 on Thursday but be warned, a lot of the coverage focuses on the amateurs for the first three days and the cameras are placed primarily at only one course - the one all the main players have been 'drawn' to play at that day. It's hard going for the first three days, unless you want to see how good Hugh Grant or Huey Lewis are at playing golf.

Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2021 - Danny Willett -18 120.0119/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Victor Perez -22 460.0459/1
2018 - Lucas Bjerregaard -15 65.064/1
2017 - Tyrrell Hatton -24 25.024/1
2016 - Tyrrell Hatton -23 60.059/1
2015 - Thorbjorn Olesen -18 240.0239/1

What Will it Take to Win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship?

What you do off the tee here is largely irrelevant but finding greens is important.

The shock 2014 winner, Oliver Wilson, ranked in the 60s for Greens In Regulation but that was unusually high and nine of the last ten winners have ranked inside the top-ten for GIR. The last three winners, Danny Willett, Victor Perez, and Lucas Bjerregaard, have all ranked third.

As many as eight of the last 13 winners have ranked number one for Par 4 Scoring. Last year's runner-up, Tyrrell Hatton, played the par fours better than anyone else but the previous four winners all topped the Par 4 Scoring rankings for the week.

Given how easily the courses are set up, to accommodate the amateurs in the field, those that contend make lots and lots of birdies. Perez made more than anyone else three years and he was the fourth winner in five years to do so. Joakim Lagergren, who finished alongside Hatton in second last year, made the most 12 months ago.

The weather conditions weren't great 12 months ago so that curtailed the scoring somewhat but this is nearly always a birdie-fest, where going low is essential.

Is There an Angle In?

The shock 2019 winner, Victor Perez, was hard to spot before the off. He was the first Frenchman to take the title and he didn't have any links form to boast or any form at any links type tracks.

Previous links form is usually an essential prerequisite to winning this event so punters were left scratching their heads, but not for long. It was only after he'd won that the story broke widely that his girlfriend was Scottish, that he'd moved to Dundee, and that he was playing lots of links golf.

Lucas Bjerregaard didn't have an abundance of obvious previous form either, but he had form at the Qatar Masters and his only previous DP World Tour success had come at the Portugal Masters - two events played at venues where links form holds up well. He'd also contended up until the halfway point of the 2014 Scottish Open but that was as much links form as he had in his locker.

Previous links form is very important here as a rule though and the first 17 event winners had all been renowned links players, as was last year's winner, Danny Willett.

Willett had a couple of top-five finishes in the event previously and he'd also finished sixth in the 2015 Open Championship at St Andrews, having sat second at the halfway stage.

Look closely at the results of the Irish Open whenever that's been staged at a links venue, the last 12 editions of the Scottish Open, and, of course, the Open Championship, for clues.

Previous tournament form has counted for plenty here too. Even though they were all outsiders, matched at triple-figure prices, last year's winner, Willett, and the three winners between 2013 and 2015 had all finished inside the top-three in the event before they won.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Having grown up playing links golf, players from the UK and Ireland have a sizable advantage and an incredibly good event record. As many as 14 of the 20 winners to date have been English, Scottish, or Irish and even though a Frenchman took the title last time, six of the first nine home in 2019 were English. Last year's champ, Willett. was the seventh different Englishman to take the title.

Branden Grace is the sole South African winner and Germany's Martin Kaymer took the title in 2010. The other three winners have been Scandinavians.

Having blown a great chance to win the British Masters the week before, Hatton was generally a 25/1 chance four years ago but he's one of the shortest-priced winners we've had and outsiders have had a great record of late.

Despite his obvious claims, because he hadn't had a top-ten all year, mainly down to injury and illness, Willett was matched at a high of 15.014/1 before the off. Perez was matched at a high of 660.0659/1 four years ago, Thorbjorn Olesen was matched at 270.0269/1 in 2015, and the year before that, playing on a sponsor's invite, a woefully out of form Oliver Wilson was understandably matched at 1000.0999/1.

David Howell was matched at 240.0239/1 before the off nine years ago, Branden Grace was getting on for a triple-figure ten years ago, and Michael Hoey was a huge outsider in 2011.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2021 - Danny Willett - leading by three 2.6613/8
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Victor Perez - tied for the lead 4.57/2
2018 - Lucas Bjerregaard tied 5th - trailing by four 22.021/1
2017 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by five 1.211/5
2016 - Tyrrell Hatton - leading by three 2.01/1
2015 - Thorbjorn Olesen - leading by three 2.021/1

In-Play Tactics

It's really difficult to make up ground in this event and four strokes is probably about as far down the early leaderboard as I'd like to go after the opening round.

We've now had 20 renewals and only two winners have been any further back than four strokes after round one - Paul Lawrie in 2001 and Stephen Gallagher in 2004.

Looking back, eight of the last ten winners and 12 of the 20 champions to date have been leading or tied for the lead with a round to go and three 54-hole leaders have been beaten in a playoff.

Being drawn at Carnoustie on Thursday has been a big plus recently, with five of the last eight winners all beginning the week there.

David Howell and Peter Uihlein fought out a play-off in 2013, having both begun the week there, the first five home in 2014 all played there on day one, the first three home in 2015 all began the week at Carnoustie and the winner, as well as the runner-up and the fourth, all played Carnoustie on Thursday six years ago.

Being drawn there on day one has clearly been advantageous of late and Willett began there 12 months ago too but the three winners before him all kicked off the event at St Andrews.

Playing the toughest course on day one can be advantageous but we need to keep an eye on the weather forecast. Playing there on a really tough day can render a player's plight hopeless and the luck of the draw can come into play.

Looking at the very early forecasts, Friday looks the wettest and windiest day and being drawn to play Carnoustie that day could be awkward but the best plan might well be to wait until after the first round and to survey the situation after that. The forecast may well change considerably before now and the off and even then, it can't be completely relied upon.

Market Leaders

Less than three months after his disappointing final round at the Open Championship, Rory McIlroy returns to St Andrews in an attempt to finally win an event he's finished second in three times previously.

This is Rory's first appearance in the Alfred Dunhill Championship since he left the 2019 edition under a bit of a cloud, having whined about DP World Tour events being set up too easily so it's good to see him back.

Given he plays alongside his father in the pro-am element, winning the event must be high on Rory's bucket list, He has tournament form figures reading 3-8-2-53-2-2-63-26 and current form figures since he finished third in the Open reading MC-8-1-2-4, he's a very worthy favourite but he's short enough for me at around 9/2.

Matt Fitzpatrick and last year's favourite, Shane Lowry, are vying for second favoritism and both arrive in sparkling form.

Fitzpatrick was beaten by Robert MacIntyre in a playoff at the Italian Open two weeks ago and Lowry won the BMW PGA Championship last time out.

Fitzpatrick makes little appeal given his event form figures read a disappointing MC-MC-15-MC-26 and I'm happy swerve Lowry too.

The 2019 Open Championship has three top-six finishes in the event but that's not an outstanding record given this is his 13th appearance.

There's already been plenty of money for Tyrrell Hatton and I can see why. The Englishman won the event back-to-back in 2017 and '17, traded at just 1.111/9 to rack up the treble a year later and he hit a low of 1.68/13 as early as Saturday last year before getting caught in the worst of the weather on Saturday afternoon.

Hatton's recent form isn't sparkling but I'm in agreement with Matt Cooper, he simply has to be backed.

Tommy Fleetwood is a fine links exponent with a fabulous record in this event. With tournament form figures reading 5-55-5-2-13-15-25-2-5-7 a strong argument can be made for taking the 20/1 with seven places on the Sportsbook but he's getting increasingly frustrating to follow.

It's now nearly three years since his last win (from off the pace at the Nedbank in 2019) and he showed just how frustrating he can be to follow last time out when following back-to-back fourth place finishes in the Scottish Open and the Open Championship, when he'd sat 89th and 55th after the opening rounds, he finished 57th at Wentworth having been tied for the lead after round one. And that event was only played over 54 holes!

Selections

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with a few outsiders in the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now I'm going with two very obvious picks - Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood.

Both have tremendous tournament and links records, and both look over-priced. I was happy to take 20.019/1 on the exchange about Tyrrell and given he's finished inside the top-seven on six of the previous ten occasions he's played in the event, the 20/1 about Tommy has to be taken.

The Wentworth wobble was a bit discombobulating last time out, but it was his first tournament since his mother died so it's easily forgiven. It must have been quite an emotional week for Tommy given there was no play on Saturday following the death of the queen and I expect him to be there or thereabouts again now back on the links.

Selection:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 20.019/1
Tommy Fleetwood @ 20/1 each-way (Sportsbook)

I'll be back shortly with my Sanderson Farms Championship preview.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter