The Punter's De-brief: Rory makes it four as Dunlap surprises all

• Odds-on shots beaten on both Tours again

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Following his very near miss at the inaugural Dubai Invitational, Rory McIlroy was a warm 3/14.00 favourite to defend his Dubai Desert Classic title and to win the event for a record-breaking fourth time.

It had been 15 years since he won the first of his three title at the Emirates and that victory back in 2019 had been his first as a pro. He has quite an affinity for the venue but after a bright start, a successful defence and a fourth win looked most unlikely.

With an early start on Thursday, Rory was matched at just 2.47/5 after he'd played his first nine holes in four-under-par, but he lost his way a bit after that and following a poor second round, he went into the weekend trailing America's Cameron Young by as many as ten strokes.

Matched at a high of 50.049/1, Rory was trading at around the 32.031/1 mark after 36-holes but with Young treading water on Moving Day, McIlroy closed the gap to just two with a sensational nine-under-par 63 that was capped off with this eagle at the last.

.@McIlroyRory eagles 18 to take a share of the lead #DubaiDesertClassic | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/og6D13r2YG

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 20, 2024

Young, who had been matched at odds-on as early as Friday, went into the fourth and final round narrowly clinging on to favouritism but having been matched at a low of 1.794/5, he soon lost his place at the head of the market.

Rory closed the gap to one with a birdie at the second and Young lost his composure after a missed birdie put at the par five third from three feet.

Bogeys at four and six followed and with Adrian Meronk also struggling (played the front nine in two-over), Rory was matched at just 1.071/14 when he made the turn with a three-stroke lead over Young and a five-stroke advantage over the remainder.

It looked highly likely that McIlroy would cruise to the title but it's never that simple with Rory and within the hour it was all change again after Meronk had birdied 10, 13 and 14 and McIlroy had bogeyed the par five 13^th.

The Pole hit a low of 3.052/1 when he got to within a stroke, but he lost momentum after the birdie at 14 and when he bogeyed the tough 16^th, Rory was able to par his way in to win.

Meronk did manage a birdie at the final hole to finish alone in second but it was never going to be enough.

Although only the second event of the year, the Dubai Desert Classic was the eighth event of the DP World Tour season and Rory was the eighth extremely plausible winner, but it's been an entirely different story over on the PGA Tour.

Dunlap causes yet another PGA Tour shock

The American Express has always been a decent event for longshots but after victories for 230.0229/1 chance, Chris Kirk, at The Sentry and for 1000.0999/1 shot, Grayson Murray, at the Sony Open, punters could be forgiven for thinking we may get a slightly more obvious winner in the Californian desert but that certainly wasn't the case.

The 20-year-old amateur, Nick Dunlap, who like Murray, had been matched for plenty at 1000.0999/1 before the off, belied his odds to sit tied for fourth at the halfway stage. He was trailing the five-time PGA Tour winner, Sam Burns, by three, and he was still readily available at 20/121.00 on the exchange, despite having the easiest of the three courses - La Quinta - to play in round three.

Dunlap made the most of the calm conditions on Moving Day and after a 12-under-par 60 around La Quinta, he headed into Sunday's fourth and final round three clear of Burns and four clear of the two-time major winner, Justin Thomas.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who I backed at halfway at 50.049/1, sat alone in fourth and six off the lead but there were host of experienced players tied for fifth and seven back, so Dunlap didn't look too big at at around 2.68/5.

As highlighted in the In-Play Blog, I thought the nerves may get to Dunlap and when he shanked a tee-shot into the water on the par four seventh, which led to a double-bogey six, it looked like the beginning of the end of what had already been a truly remarkable story.

It had been almost 35 years since we last witnessed an amateur winner on the PGA Tour (Phil Mickelson) and Lefty had been only the eighth man in history to achieve the feat so it was far from inconceivable to think Dunlap was about to crumble.

Having been matched at a low of 1.834/5 when he'd birdied the par five fourth, Dunlap's price drifted as Burns drew level with a birdie at seven to replace him at the head of the market but the amateur wasn't about to lie down without a fight.

A bounce-back birdie at the eighth saw him move back in front and even after Burns had birdied 10 and 11 to regain the lead, Dunlap kept on plugging away doggedly.

Burns hit a low of just 1.3130/100 when he stretched two clear with a birdie three at the 14^th but Dunlap followed him in to cut the lead back to just one. The pair were tied heading to the tough par three 17^th after Burns failed to match Dunlap's birdie four at the par five 16^th.

Justin Thomas was a disappointment in round three and Xander Schauffele left his run from off the pace just a bit too late but Kevin Yu was matched at a low of 5.24/1 as he made a tilt at the title.

He briefly looked like he might just pinch it having played his first 16 holes in ten-under-par but a par at the 17^th and a bogey at the last saw his challenge fade.

With the title seemingly just between Burns and Dunlap, the amateur hit a fine tee-shot over the water to around 30 feet on 17 and when Burns hit a stinker into the drink, the 20-year-old's price plunged to just 1.031/33 but the drama was yet to finish.

A par three followed for Dunlap and a double-bogey five took Burns out of the reckoning but in the group ahead, Bezuidenhout, who had failed to birdie any of the last three par fives, made a birdie three on the 72^nd hole to get within one of the lead.

Unaware that Bez, who was matched at a low of 3.211/5, had closed the gap to one, Dunlap hit a poor drive and a poor second, that caught a lucky bounce.

He said afterwards that he'd aimed way right with his approach, to take water out of the equation, but that he had no idea that his lead was just one and not two.

I suspect he may have played it differently had he known but none of that mattered after he'd chipped up on the green with his third before holing this, the winning putt.

WOW!

20-year-old amateur Nick Dunlap is a PGA TOUR champion.

He's the youngest amateur to win since 1910. pic.twitter.com/DKQmK0fuAe

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 22, 2024

Having backed both Burns and Bez, I can't say I was overjoyed at Dunlap's victory but it's a heck of a story and he's surely someone we'll get to know really well over the years, whether he turns pro immediately or not.

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