The Punter's In-Play Blog: Campillo a worthy favourite in Spain

• Spaniard the man to beat in Andalucia

• Rasmus chanced from off the pace

• Too tight to call in Vegas

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08:30 - October 20, 2024

The first-round leader, Julien Guerrier, bounced back brilliantly at the Andalucia Masters yesterday after a poor second round on Friday.

After shooting 62-72-63 over the first three days, the Frenchman now heads into today's fourth and final round tied for the lead with the halfway leader, Jorge Campillo.

Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 8:20 and don't get caught out, it's an early start today in Spain with the leaders teeing off at 10:00 UK time.

Jorge Campillo -19 2.35/4
Julien Guerrier -19 3.02/1
Dan Brown -16 14.5
Jordan Smith -15 12.5
Rasmus Hojgaard -13 28.027/1
Jon Rahm -12 44.043/1
Andy Sullivan -12 300.0299/1
-11 and 150.0149/1 bar

Campillo heads the market and having looked short at the same price at halfway, he looks a very fair price now at 2.35/4.

The experienced Spaniard has led or co-led five times in total and he has a decent record.

He finished second at the Acaya Open on the Challenge Tour, way back in 2011, having led by a stroke with a round to go and he was also second at the Maybank Championship in 2018 having been tied at the top through 54 holes but on the last three occasions he's led, he's fared better.

Campillo won both the Qatar Masters in 2020 and the Kenya Open in March last year, having led by a stroke and he also led the Qatar Masters by a stroke again in October last year before being beaten by Sami Valimaki in playoff.

In contrast to the Spaniard, Guerrier has struggled when leading or co-leading on the DP World Tour.

He converted from the front a couple of times on the Challenge Tour back in 2017 but on the four occasions that he's led or co-led on the DP World Tour he's failed to break 70 on Sunday and he's been beaten by at least two strokes.

The Frenchman is still in search of his first DP World Tour title and he also needs to back up yesterday's super low round, something he failed to do on Friday after Thursday's 62.

I'm happy to swerve Campillo at the price and just congratulate Matt Cooper if he wins but I haven't given up on Dan Brown yet and I've also added Rasmus Hojgaard.

The Dane has shortened up from odds in excess of 40.039/1 when play ended yesterday but he's still a fair price at 28.027/1 given his record.

Rasmus is zero from five when leading a DP World Tour event after three rounds but he's clearly a better chaser than he is leader given he's won five times already.

Having trailed by three through 54 holes, he was matched at as high as 50.049/1 during the final round of the Irish Open last month before a flying finish saw him catch Rory McIlroy and he's also won from four, five and even six back with a round to go.

If the leaders do tread water, Rasmus could well be the man to pounce.

Over on the PGA Tour, it's a messy looking leaderboard at the Shriners Children's Open after Friday morning's weather delay.

Play was suspended due to darkness yesterday with the halfway pacesetters still having as many as five holes of their third rounds to play.

Doug Ghim, who returns to TPC Summerlin facing a five foot par save on the par three 17^th, is tied at the top on -15 with JT Poston, who has five holes of round three still to play.

Those two are a shot in front of four others and six players are tied for seventh and just two off the lead.

Some of the contenders are in the clubhouse and some still have holes to play so quite where we'll stand after round three is hard to gauge.

Poston heads the market at 4.67/2 and he's the only man trading at less than 7/18.00 so it's a very open market but that may look a big price once he's completed his round.

Poston will return to the course in perfect conditions if the forecasts of a benign morning are to be believed and with the short par four 15^th and the par five 16^th still to play, he may well be out on his own with a round to go and the stats are in his favour if he is.

Sungjae Im won from three strokes back in 2021, but Tom Kim was tied for the lead with a round to go before winning the last two editions and the three winners before Im were all leading through 54 holes too.

As many as 12 of the last 18 winners have been leading or co-leading with a round to go so although it's a tight looking leaderboard, backing whoever leads when the third round is finally concluded might be the way to go.

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10:00 - October 19, 2024

Windy weather caused chaos at the Shriners Children's Open yesterday.

Play eventually got underway after a four-hour delay and the first round leader, Taylor Pendrith, who was drawn AM-PM, has completed only six holes of his second round.

Following the delayed start, those drawn PM-AM have been severely disadvantaged given they played in the worst of the weather on Thursday afternoon and that they played their second rounds in their entirety in yesterday's gales.

Pendrith and Co have caught a huge break and although rain is forecasted for the next couple of days, they'll return to the course today with the wind having dropped.

Given it's such a messy picture, I'm more than happy to leave the event alone for now and caution is also advised at this week's DP World Tour event, the Andalucia Masters, where Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Jorge Campillo, holds a clear lead. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:55.

Jorge Campillo -15 2.285/4
Dan Brown -11 17.016/1
Jordan Smith -10 10.09/1
Julien Guerrier -10 23.022/1
Scott Jamieson -10 28.027/1
Jon Rahm -8 5.69/2
Angel Hidalgo -8 60.059/1
Bernd Wiesberger -8 60.059/1
Jayden Schaper -8 90.089/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -8 120.0119/1
Niklas Norgaard -7 38.037/1
-7 and 50.049/1 bar

We've only got last year's edition of the Andalucia Masters to look back on for in-running clues as the first eight editions were played at Valderrama but if the 2023 result is anything to go by, this is a tough tournament to call.

Last year's winner, Adrian Meronk, didn't hit the front at Real Club de Golf Sotogrande until the very end and he was sat tied for 19^th and five off the lead at halfway.

There were three men tied for the lead after 36 holes, Louis De Jager, Jeong Weon Ko and Adrian Otaegui, and they finished fourth, seventh, and ninth.

This year's halfway leader, Campillo, looks short enough at around 5/42.25.

He sat in on the coverage on Sky Sports yesterday afternoon and he talked about how he's never finished a tournament at as low as 20-under-par.

He's shot two low rounds over the first two days but he's likely to need to keep the pedal down.

Jon Rahm is the second favourite but trailing by as many as seven strokes, he makes no appeal either at around 9/25.50.

An off the pace winner is a distinct possibility and if I had to pick one out it would be the recent Open de Espana winner, Angel Hidalgo, who looks a very fair price at 60.059/1 given he sits alongside Rahm on -7.

Hidalgo's swashbuckling style is capturing the attention of plenty of people, and Max Homa has certainly been mesmerised, but he's not just an entertainer.

I have watched the first swing in this video 50 times https://t.co/9cgk7GhrQc

-- max homa (@Maxhoma) October 18, 2024

Hidalgo will be full of confidence after his recent victory and the 40/141.00 he trades at on the High Street more closely represents his chance of victory.

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15:15 - October 18, 2024

High winds have caused a delay to the resumption in play at the Shriners Children's Open of an hour-and-a quarter so quite what the day will bring is anybody's guess.

I'm happy to have Higgo onside at such a big price for small stakes (see earlier post) but the delay and the poor forecast means there's definitely a possibility of the late starters coming back tomorrow to finish up their second rounds.

And with the forecasts predicting better weather tomorrow, that will be a huge break, so caution is most definitely advised.

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13:20 - October 18, 2024

Having been on 59 watch with Julien Guerrier at the Andalucia Masters yesterday afternoon, attention switched to the pre-event second favourite, Taylor Pendrith, in the opening round of the Shriners Children's Open yesterday evening (UK time) where the Canadian was going super low in decent conditions.

Needing an eagle at the par five ninth (his 18^th) to break 60, the 33-year-old had to settle for a par but he still leads by three after the opening day's play.

Yet again, the field have dawdled to such an extent that play was suspended for darkness before the first round finished yesterday but Joe Highsmith, who has a 23 foot birdie putt at the ninth to come, is the only player inside the top-22 yet to finish round one and he trails the leader by four.

Pendrith is the 11^th player to hold a clear lead after round one since the tournament was reduced from five rounds to four 20 years ago and two of the previous 11 went on to win but Pendrith is the first to lead by more than two strokes.

Looking back over the last ten years, 25 players have led a PGA Tour event by three after round one and as many as nine of them (36%) went on to win, suggesting Pendrith is a reasonable price at around 3/14.00, but I'm far from convinced.

The weather forecast predicts a blustery afternoon in Vegas today and we may well be better off looking at the early starters today.

The one I like at a decent price is South Africa's Garrick Higgo, who went to college in Las Vegas.

He's one of the 11 players tied for second on -7 but he's one of only three early starters that sit on that score today so he should miss the worst of the weather.

Over at the Andalucia Masters, Matt Cooper's 50/151.00 headline pick, Jorge Campillo, has followed yesterday's 64 with a 65 this morning and he currently leads by five but I'll take a more detailed look at that one when round two has been completed.

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19:10 - October 17, 2024

Daniel Brown was matched at just 1.111/9 to lead after the opening round of the Andalucia Masters after he'd posted a brilliant nine-under-par 63 around Real Club de Golf Sotogrande this morning.

Playing in the first group out, the Englishman led by four as the afternoon wave took to the course and it looked highly unlikely that anyone would reach his score, but Frenchman, Julien Guerrier, had caught him after just 11 holes!

He cooled off a bit after playing the front nine in 29 and having birdied 10 and 11. Pars were made at the par five 12th and 14th, as well as the par three 13th and those that had piled in on Brown looked like they might have a chance but after a booming drive on the par four 15th, he rolled in his tenth birdie of the day and he parred in to post an incredible 62.

Having looked like being the first-round leader, after an afternoon of low scoring, Brown is now the only early starter inside the top-six places.

Guerrier, who made his first appearance on the DP World Tour 19 years ago, is the 6/17.00 favourite after today's brilliance but he's yet to win on the DP World Tour and looks far too short at such an early stage.

Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Jorge Campillo, who sits alone in third after shooting 64 this afternoon, is the second favourite but the one I like is Brown.

He won the ISPS Handa World Invitational wire-to-wire last August and he hung around all week at the Open in July after leading after day one.

He eventually finished tenth, but he was still in second place with a round to go and he looks worth chancing at around 12/113.00.

There's a strong possibility that he'll drift tomorrow morning as the early starters make a move but with the wind predicted to drop tomorrow afternoon, Brown may well soon catch them up.

The first round of the Shriners Children's Open is underway but I'll look at that one tomorrow.

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Andalucia Masters Pre-Event Picks:
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 50.049/1
Jeff Winther @ 90.089/1

In-Play Picks:
Daniel Brown @ 13.012/1
Angel Hidalgo @ 60.059/1
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 30.029/1

Shriners Children's Open Pre-Event Pick:
Patton Kizzire @ 80.079/1

In-Play Pick:
Garrick Higgo @ 75.074/1

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