Puerto Rico Open: Montgomery the main man at 79/1

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Tournament History

Greg Kraft won the inaugural Puerto Rico Open in 2008, but this will be just the 17th edition after the 2018 renewal was postponed due to Hurricane Maria in September 2017.

The Puerto Rico Open has always been played opposite another event and this year it plays second fiddle to the Arnold Palmer Invitational for the third year in-a-row.

Venue

Grand Reserve Country Club (Composite Course), Rio Grande, Puerto Rico

Course Details

Par 72, 7506 yards, stroke average in 2024 - 70.07

Sitting at the foothills of the El Yunque Rainforest and formally named the Coco Beach Golf Club, the Grand Reserve is a diverse wind-exposed and flat composite of two courses that were originally four nine-hole courses, designed by Tom Kite in 2004.

The grass is paspalum, which is the same surface used at the recent Mexico Open, at the Corales Golf Club, which hosts the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship and at both the old and new venues used for the World Wide Technology Championship - El Camaleon and the Tiger Woods designed El Cardonal Golf Course.

Water is in play on 13 holes and the average-sized greens usually run at around 11 on the Stimpmeter.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

No live coverage on Sky Sports

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Brice Garnett -19 300.0299/1 (playoff)
2023 - Nico Echavarria -21 110.0109/1
2022 - Ryan Brehm -20 70.069/1
2021 - Branden Grace -19 21.020/1
2020 - Viktor Hovland -20 18.017/1
2019 - Martin Trainer -15 120.0119/1
2018 - Tournament Cancelled
2017 - D.A Points -20 220.0219/1
2016 - Tony Finau -12 50.049/1 (playoff)

What Will it Take to Win the Puerto Rico Open?

No Strokes Gained data has been produced for this event and there were no stats at all for the inaugural staging, so I've only been able to analyse the last 15 results.

The driving metrics appear largely irrelevant with neither length nor accuracy being close to crucial and the main stat to consider is Greens In Regulation.

Last year's winner, Brice Garnett, ranked 10^th for GIR and five of the top-eight were ranked inside the top-10 for greens hit.

The 2023 winner, Nico Echavarria, ranked second, the 2022 winner, Ryan Brehm, ranked 11^th and the first and second in 2021, Branden Grace and Jhonattan Vegas, ranked third and seventh. A year earlier, the winner, Viktor Hovland, ranked eighth and the runner-up, Josh Teater, ranked first.

The 2016 winner, Tony Finau, only ranked 18th for GIR and the 2013 champ, Scott Brown, ranked a lowly 62nd but they're the only winners in the last 15 years to rank outside the top-ten for that key stat.

This is an exposed layout, and the wind is nearly always a factor.

Is There an Angle In?

A number of events are staged at courses similar to this. Look closely at the form of the Sony Open, the RBC Heritage, the RSM Classic, the World Wide Technology Championship and the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship.

As previously mentioned, El Camaleon, which used to be the home of the World Wide Technology Championship, and the Corales Golf Club, host venue for the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, are both wind-affected Paspalum grass tracks and we've recently witnessed how nicely this event links with the two venues.

The 2020 winner of this event, Viktor Hovland, won two of the last three editions of the World Wide Technology Championship staged at El Camaleon and last year's victor, Garnett, got off the mark on the PGA Tour at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship in 2018.

The new WWT Championship venue, El Cardonal, is another wind exposed track with paspalum greens and the 2023 winner here, Echavarria, was leading there in November with a round to go.

The other three event venues, Waialae Country Club, Harbour Town Golf Links and Sea Island Resort are all Bermuda, which is a very similar surface to Paspalum, and all three are wind-affected coastal courses.

Branden Grace, who won this event four years ago, also won the 2016 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town, and that's his only other victory on the PGA Tour.

El Cardonal, the new venue for the World Wide Technology Championship, and the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta, which hosts the Mexico Open, are both paspalum tracks so they're worthy of consideration in that respect but they're less wind-affected that this layout and they're much longer.

Current form is definitely not something to worry about here and none of the previous 16 winners were setting the world alight before arriving here.

The 2023 winner, Echavarria, had missed his previous four cuts before winning here and Garnett had 2024 form figures reading MC-MC-51 on the Korn Ferry Tour before he won here 12 months ago so a poor set of current form figures is nothing to worry about at all.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Echavarria was only 28 when he won here two ago but out of form veterans seem to do really well here.

Playing on the final start of his Minor Medical Extension, Brehm won at the age of 35 three years ago (his only PGA Tour win to date) and like the 2017 winner, D.A Points, last year's champ, Garnett, had just turned 40. Alex Cejka was winning on the PGA Tour for the first time at the age of 45 when he took the title ten years ago.

The first five editions went to experienced vets, although none of them were prolific, and Echavarria and tthe top-class Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland are the only Puerto Rico Open winners to win on the PGA Tour subsequently.

Grace was very well backed four years ago, Hovland went of favourite 12 months earlier, Finau was matched at a high of 55.054/1, and Chesson Hadley was around that price 12 years ago too, but every other winner has been matched at a triple-figure price before the off.

Hovland, in 2020, was the first winner under 50/151.00 so don't be afraid to take a chance or two. This is an event where an out-of-form outsider could pop up and cause a massive surprise.

And finally, there might just be another real superstar in the field somewhere. In addition to Hovland and Finau winning here, Jason Day, Jordon Spieth, Daniel Berger and Bryson DeChambeau have all finished runner-up here. And the 2023 runner-up, Akshay Bhatia, looks to be going places too.

Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Brice Garnett - tied second, trailing by two 10.09/1
2023 - Nico Echavarria led by two strokes 2.111/10
2022 - Ryan Brehm led by three strokes 2.35/4
2021 - Branden Grace tied third, trailing by one 5.49/2
2020 - Viktor Hovland led by a stroke 1.784/5
2019 - Martin Trainer alone in third, trailing by two 12.011/1
2018 - Tournament Cancelled
2017 - D.A Points tied second, one off the lead 9.28/1
2016 - Tony Finau tied second, one off the lead 7.26/1

In-Play Tactics

Although he sat tied for ninth after round one, Garnett was only one back and he sat tied for second after rounds two and that was fairly typical for the venue

Every winner has shot a first round of 70 or below and they've all been within five strokes of the lead after round one.

Finau, who sat 15th and four adrift in 2016, and Derek Lamely, who was 35th and six off the lead after 36 holes in 2010, are the only winners not to be inside the top seven at halfway.

Alex Cejka dropped from first to fifth between rounds two and three but he and Lamely, who also sat fifth after three rounds are the only winners to be outside the top-three places with a round to go so it's a tough place to make up ground.

Given that the event isn't on Sky and that it's up against the Arnold Palmer Invitational (which I've previewed here), the chances are that liquidity will be poor so it might be sensible to trade in-between rounds only.

Montgomery the main man

Given the history of this event, I see absolutely no sense in playing anyone towards the head of the market.

I've got a few fancies at 100.099/1 and bigger and I'll be back later today with their details in the Find Me a 100 Winner column but for now my only play before the off is Taylor Montgomery who was in the thick of the action last weekend at the Cognizant Classic.

Mongomery was matched in running at 5/16.00 when he led by two halfway through the third round before disaster struck on the par three 15^th where he made a seven.

He bounced back with birdies at 16 and 18 to give himself a very slim chance heading into round four but it wasn't to be. No doubt disappointed by the calamity late on Saturday, the 30-year-old never really got going on Sunday and he eventually finished tied for 25^th but I'm happy to chance him here at 80.079/1.

There's every chance that last week was a one off but if he putts as well as he did last week (ranked first for Putting Average and Strokes Gained: Putting) he's going to contend, and I was happy to chance him modestly at a nice price.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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