Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bank on Bobby at Bay Hill at 79/1

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Tournament History

Originally called the Florida Citrus Open and first staged back in 1966, the tournament was won by Arnold Palmer in 1971. Palmer then took over the event in 1979 and moved it to Bay Hill Country Club.

It's been called the Bay Hill Invitational in the past, but it's now well established as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and this will be the 47^th renewal at Bay Hill.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the fourth Signature Event of the year.

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Venue

Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Orlando, Florida

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Course Details

Par 72, 7,466 yards
Stroke average in 2024 - 72.33 

Originally designed in 1960 by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee, Arnold Palmer bought Bay Hill in 1976 and he spent the rest of his life tinkering with it. It played as a par 70 in-between 2007-09 but after a major renovation it reverted back to a par 72 in 2010.

There are 84 bunkers and water is in-play on half the holes. All the greens were changed to Emerald Bermuda before the 2010 edition but they came in for much criticism in 2015 as they weren't in good conditions at all with a couple of players anonymously commentating on them before the off. "Speed may be a bit of an issue," said one competitor, "It looks like a comb-over!" said another. Arnie took the hint and after the event they were all changed again - this time to TifEagle Bermudagras.

The bigger than average greens can be set at a fast 13.5 on the Stimpmeter and the rough is usually set at a minimum of 3 ½ inches high. Even if the wind doesn't get up, the course is still a proper test and since 1988, only three men have shot four rounds in the 60s - the runner-up, Kevin Chappell, nine years ago, the winner, Matt Every, in 2015, and the runner-up in 2008, Bart Bryant.

The par five sixth is a fascinating U-shaped par five where we witnessed all sorts of fun in 2021 with the eventual winner, Bryson DeChambeau, attempting what had previously been considered as the impossible.

Drive: 377 yards.
Distance to the pin: 88 yards.

@B_DeChambeau does it again at No. 6.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/HYSyDvQCMm

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 7, 2021

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 16:00 on Thursday

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

2024 - Scottie Scheffler -15 8.88/1
2023 - Kurt Kitayama -9 420.0419/1
2022 - Scottie Scheffler -5 25.024/1
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau -11 15.014/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -4 70.069/1
2019 - Francesco Molinari -12 70.069/1
2018 - Rory McIlroy -18 20.019/1
2017 - Marc Leishman -11 160.0159/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Arnold Palmer?

Unsurprisingly, nobody hit it further off the tee than Bryson in 2021 and Rory McIlroy also ranked number one for Driving Distance when he won here seven years ago.

The 2016 champ, Jason Day, ranked sixth and Martin Laird ranked fifth for DD in 2011 but although a long track, length hasn't been imperative.

Scottie Scheffler ranked 37^th last year and the other nine winners over the last 14 years have ranked 13^th, 45^th, 36^th, 11th, 49th, 48th, 34^th, 26^th and 31^st.

Kurt Kitayama ranked tied first for Driving Accuracy two years ago and the 2019 winner, Francesco Molinari, ranked third for DA but that's unusual.

Scheffler only ranked 38^th last year and the three winners before Kitayama ranked 55^th, 25^th and 33^rd for DA. And the six winners before Molinari ranked 71st, 51st, 32nd, 44th, 17th and 48^th.

Scheffler ranked second for Greens In Regulation and first for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green they're the two most important stats to concentrate on.

Although they're big, Bay Hill's greens aren't easy to hit, and they rank inside the top-10 hardest to hit in regulation almost every year on the PGA Tour.

As many as seven of the last eight winners have ranked inside the top ten for GIR and the last eight winners have ranked first, 14^th eighth, second, fifth, 13^th, seventh, 13^th and fourth for Strokes Gained: T2G.

The first two home ranked first and second for Putting Average last year and the top five in the Scrambling stats all finished inside the top 11 places but we've seen plenty of winners here with ordinary putting and scrambling numbers.

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Is There an Angle In?

Course form is usually vital at Bay Hill and Kitayama was the first debutant to win the title since Robert Gamez, way back in 1990.

Scheffler had finished 15^th on his only previous outing here when he won here for the first time three years ago but in four previous visits to Bay Hill, the 2021 winner, DeChambeau, had finished second and fourth and the four winners before him had all finished inside the top-five here before they won.

Scheffler is the eighth man to win the event more than and Tiger Woods has won the tournament a staggering eight times, so course form stands up really well and previous winners have a great record.

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Links Lovers Enjoy Bay Hill?

Links form has come to fore here over the years and more recently, form at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club has been represented very strongly...

DeChambeau is yet to contend in an Open Championship but the man that ran him close here four years ago, Lee Westwood, is a renowned links exponent and that's been a common theme at Bay Hill.

The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, who was second in 2022, has won three Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, the two winners before him, Francesco Molinari and Rory McIlroy, have both won the Open Championship and the two winners before that, Marc Leishman and Jason Day, very nearly have.

Leishman was beaten in a playoff in 2015 and Day finished one stroke behind the three playoff protagonists that year - Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, and the winner, Zach Johnson. And Oosty and Zach both have top-tens at Bay Hill on their CVs.

The 2010 winner, Els is a two-time Open champ and Tiger Woods could play links tracks quite well too, but the Scottish Open is the one event to really concentrate on. 

The 2023 surprise winner, Kitayama, finished runner-up to Xander Schauffele at the Renaissance Club in 2022 and Schauffele was sitting third here at halfway in 2023.

Adam Scott, who led the Arnold Palmer Invitational by seven at halfway in 2014, finished second in Scotland last year and there were three Bay Hill winners inside the top six at the Scottish Open in 2023 - McIlroy, Scheffler and Hatton.

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Is There an Identikit Winner

Although the last four winners have been Americans, overseas players have a great record here.

Norway's Viktor Hovland was alongside Hatton and Billy Horschel in second in 2022, the second and third in 2021 and the first three home in 2020 were all from overseas and, having won the Cognizant Classic the week before, Keith Mitchell, who finished tied sixth, was the only American inside the top nine places seven years ago.

The five winners before Bryson were all overseas players and that 2019 edition was the first event since the 2010 Open Championship that no Americans were in the top five in a PGA Tour event. And it was the first time in at least 15 years that no American had finished inside the top five in a PGA Tour event on American soil.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Scottie Scheffler tied for the lead 2.89/5
2023 - Kurt Kitayama led by a stroke 7.87/1
2022 - Scottie Scheffler solo third - trailing by two 7.06/1
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau T2 - trailing by one 3.412/5
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton led by two strokes 3.8514/5
2019 - Francesco Molinari T17 - trailing by five 130.0129/1
2018 - Rory McIlroy solo 3rd - trailing by two 4.94/1
2017 - Marc Leishman T3 - trailing by three 16.015/1

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In-Play Tactics

Tiger's record here is incredible, and he was in front at halfway for four of his eight Bay Hill wins but if you disregard the GOAT, we're left with a mixed bag of results here.

In the last 15 years, Scheffler, Kitayama, Hatton, Woods, Ernie Els and Martin Laird have all gone on to win having led through 36 holes and Jason Day won wire-to-wire in 2016, but we've seen a couple of off the pace winners of late too.

Scottie Scheffler was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he trailed by eight at halfway when he won the event for the first time three years ago, Francesco Molinari was matched at 180.0179/1 before round four - six years ago, having tumbled from third to 17th with a three-over-par 73 on Saturday, and Rory McIlroy sat 13th and 11th, trailing by five and six strokes after rounds one and two in 2018.

All three of those winners are major champions so they're capable of making the extraordinary look conventional and winning from off the pace isn't easy but the stats tell us that being in front hasn't been ideal of late, with seven of the last 11 third round leaders having failed to convert.

And it's also worth highlighting that as many as 21 players have held a clear lead at halfway in the last 29 years and only seven of them went on to win.

Bay Hill's a tough venue, getting to the winning line is difficult, it's been a great place to take on odds-on shots in-running.

Rory McIlroy was matched at a low of 1.9420/21 in-running two years ago and when he hit a low of 1.855/6 in 2019, before finishing sixth, he was the sixth player in seven years to trade at odds-on and get beat. And two players went odds-on in 2022 before getting beat.

The halfway leader, Viktor Hovland, hit a low of 1.695/7 and Gary Woodland was matched at just 1.75/7 when he hit the front with an eagle at the par five 16^th on Sunday before he double bogeyed the tough par three 17^th.

If you plan to trade in-running, bear in mind how difficult the finish is here. The par five 16th is the easiest on the course, averaging just 4.48 last year but with four of the final five holes averaging over-par year after year, that's the only respite coming in.

One final strange thing of note, despite some thrilling close finishes, there hasn't been a playoff here this century.

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Market Leaders

It's not often the market leaders all make plenty of appeal but it's impossible to rule out any of the front three in the market at Bay Hill this week.

With just over a month to go until the US Masters, the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, appears to be finding his feet and he's the correct favourite here.

In addition to looking to defend at Augusta next month, Sheffler will be looking to win the Players for a third year-in-a-row next week and he's looking to win here for the third time in four years so his third-place finish in the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines last time out was an encouraging performance following two underwhelming starts at Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale, where he finished ninth and 25^th.

He lost his way in round three at the Genesis and his numbers on approach and on the greens aren't up to their stellar highs just yet this year but it's probably only a matter of time before he really hits his stripes.

Rory McIlroy's putting at the Genesis was poor and his 17^th place finish was a disappointment after he'd started the year so nicely with a fourth in the Dubai Desert Classic and a win at Pebble Beach.

The 2018 winner has Bay Hill course form figures reading 11-27-4-1-6-5-10-13-2-21 so is impossible to rule out and he's very fairly priced at around 9/110.00.

The only other player in the field that's trading at less than 25/126.00 is the Genesis winner, Ludvig Aberg,

The classy Swede is playing here for the third time and he's only ht one round in the 60s so far, finishing 24^th and 25^th but he's impossible to ignore after his dominant display at Torrey Pines.

Aberg was leading by two with a round to go at the Scottish Open last year so he ticks the correlating course form box nicely too.

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Bank on Bobby at Bay Hill

It's been a fairly slow start to 2025 for Scotland's Robert MacIntyre, but this looks like a great place for him to get off the mark for the year following his two PGA Tour victories last year at the Canadian Open in June and the Scottish Open in July.

MacIntyre missed the cut at Torrey Pines last time out but that doesn't put me off at all given a weekend off has inspired him in the past.

He missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge the week before he won in Canada, and he also missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic prior to his victory at the Renaissance Club in July.

MacIntyre made his PGA Tour debut here back in 2021, when he finished tied for 36^th after a poor third round, so he'll have fond memories to draw upon and he's too big at 80.079/1 given the course really should suit him.

Bit of everything this week @APinv

Great to make my @PGATOUR debut and todays score looks like it'll turn out ok.

Thanks to everyone at Bay Hill and @Mastercard for a great week and off we go to @THEPLAYERSChamp next pic.twitter.com/yginirqsax

-- Robert MacIntyre (@robert1lefty) March 7, 2021

MacIntyre finished sixth in his penultimate start in the Phoenix Open and a return to that level of form will see him contend again.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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