Joburg Open: Van Tonder chanced again at 39/1

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Tournament History

Although staged in November 2023, along with the Australian PGA Championship, the Joburg Open was one of two tournaments to kick off the 2024 DP World Tour season so like last week's South African Open, the event wasn't played in 2024.

The Joburg Open was followed by the South African Open in November 2023 so the two events have switched places this season.

Ariel Canete won the first edition of the Joburg Open in 2007 and it was an ever-present on the DP World Tour up until 2017, when there were two editions - one in February and one in December.

It was lost from the schedule for a couple of years before J.B Hansen won in 2020, and the 2021 edition, which also kicked off the new DP World Tour season, was a bit of a farce.

To allow international players to travel back home in time because of COVID-19 travel restrictions in place in the UK from South Africa, the event was originally shortened to 54 holes, but rain and the threat of lightning curtailed the event further to just 36 holes.

Triston Lawrence lifted the trophy after a pair of six-under-par 65s around the Firethorn Course at Randpark and he should have won it again last year when he led by three with 18 to play.

The tournament moved to Houghton Golf Club in 2022 when Dan Bradbury caused a bit of a shock in just his third DP World Tour event - winning wire-to-wire at 550.0549/1 - and we return for the third consecutive edition after the favourite, Dean Burmester, prevailed here in November '23.

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Venue

Houghton Golf Club, Lower Houghton, Johannesburg, South Africa. 

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Course Details

Par 70 7,227 yards
Stroke Average in 2023 - 70.57 

Houghton is a traditional tree-lined undulating parkland course with fairly generous fairways and bentgrass greens.

Water is frequently in play, but the course doesn't play anywhere near as long as its yardage suggests as it sits at over 5000 feet above sea level and the ball travels around 10% further.

Houghton has a rich history, hosting the South African Open eight times, as well as the South African PGA Championship at the end of the last century, when known as the Alfred Dunhill South African PGA Championship.

The likes of Nick Price, Tony Johnstone and Ernie Els all won the PGA Championship at Houghton before Alfred Dunhill ended its association with the event to begin its own tournament- the Alfred Dunhill Championship in 2000.

The first five editions of the Alfred Dunhill Championship were all staged here before the tournament moved to its now permanent home at Leopard Creek.

For more on the course, please see the course layout on Houghton's website here.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:00 on Thursday

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Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Prices

2023 - Dean Burmester -18 14.013/1
2022 - Dan Bradbury -21 550.0549/1
2021 - Triston Lawrence -12 (36 holes) 230.0229/1
2020 - JB Hansen -19 60.059/1
2018 - 2019 - No tournament
2017 (Dec') - Shubhankar Sharma -23 150.0149/1
2017 (Feb') - Darren Fichardt -15 160.0159/1
2016 - Haydn Porteous -18 190.0189/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Joburg Open?

There were no stats produced for the 2023 winner, Dean Burmester, presumably because he wasn't a DP World Tour player, but the next four on the leaderboard all ranked inside the top eight for Greens In Regulation, and there were no traditional stats produced for half of the field in 2022 for some reason, and that included the winner, Dan Bradbury.

What stats were produced in 2022 didn't look quite right given three of the top 15 ranked tied first for Greens In Regulation so I'm really not sure we can trust the figures at all but we do have some old data to plough through...

It's old form now but for what it's worth, here are the stats (where available) for the top-three and ties for the five editions of the Alfred Dunhill Championship staged at Houghton. 

2004 Dunhill Championship at Houghton
1^st Marcel Siem -22                     DD - 1 DA - 61 GIR - 5 SC -9 PA - 7
2^nd Gregory Havret -22              DD - 18 DA - 6 GIR - 39 SC - 8 PA - 1
2^nd Raphael Jacquelin -22          DD - 12 DA - 27 GIR - 1 SC - 18 PA - 5 

2003 Dunhill Championship at Houghton
1^st Mark Foster -15                     DD - 17 DA - 21 GIR - 14 SC -n/a PA - n/a
2^nd Anders Hansen -15              DD - 43 DA - 9 GIR - 5 SC -n/a PA - n/a
2^nd Trevor Immelman -15         DD - 14 DA - 9 GIR - 30 SC -n/a PA - n/a
2^nd Paul Lawrie -15                     DD - 15 DA -58 GIR - 14 SC -n/a PA - n/a
2^nd Doug McGuigan -15             No stats available
2^nd Bradford Vaughn -15           No stats available 

2002 Dunhill Championship at Houghton
1^st Justin Rose -20                        No stats available
2^nd Retief Goosen -18                 No stats available
2^nd Mark Foster -18                     No stats available
2^nd Martin Martinez -18             No stats available 

2001 Dunhill Championship at Houghton
1^st Adam Scott -21                   DD - 7 DA - 17 GIR - 5 SC -43 PA - 22
2^nd Justin Rose -20                   DD - 3 DA - 10 GIR - 12 SC - 9 PA - 19
3^rd Nick Faldo -19                     DD - 50 DA - 20 GIR - 13 SC - 2 PA - 1
3^rd Dean Robertson -19           DD - 41 DA - 4 GIR - 8 SC - 9 PA - 6

2000 Dunhill Championship at Houghton
1^st Anthony Wall -12                 DD - 26 DA - 17 GIR - 4 SC -21 PA - 1
2^nd Gary Orr -10                        DD - 33 DA - 3 GIR - 2 SC - 30 PA - 33
3^rd Phillip Price -10                   DD - 53 DA - 38 GIR - 19 SC - 16 PA - 9

DD - Driving Distance
DA - Driving Accuracy
GIR - Greens In Regulation
SC - Scrambling
PA - Putting Accuracy

With the rough down, Marcel Siem was able to bully his way to victory off the tee, ranking first for distance and only 61^st for accuracy and (where stats were available) all the winners ranked highly for Driving Distance.

There were no stats in 2002 but given he ranked third for DD in 2001 when finishing second, it's probably safe to assume that Justin Rose was getting it out there off the tee when he won here and it's also worth noting that the 2023 winner, Burmester, is a big hitter.

The worst any of the winners ranked for Greens In Regulation is 14^th and they all putted nicely.

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Is There an Angle In?

South Africans tend to do really well in their homeland, but Europeans have fared really well at this particular venue.

Englishman, Bradbury, won here in 2022 and the five editions of the Alfred Dunhill here were won by four Europeans and an Aussie.

The Alfred Dunhill South African PGA Championship winners here at the end of the last century - Nick Price, Tony Johnstone, and Ernie Els - are all out of the top drawer and US Masters winners, Nick Faldo, Trevor Immelman and Adam Scott have all finished inside the first three places.

In addition to Augusta form, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that Houghton correlates nicely with another tree-lined track - Wentworth - which hosts the BMW PGA Championship each year and that correlation was given a boost again last year when Lawrence, who was matched at 1.51/2 to win here in 2023, lost in a playoff at Wentworth, where he was matched at just 1.3130/100.

The 2022 winner here, Bradbury, has finished only 51^st and 35^th at Wentworth but he sat fourth after round one last year. 

This event is clearly not that strong so we won't find much Augusta form to ponder but anyone that's played well at Wentworth, or any other tree-lined track, will command respect and if they're European, given the past results at the track, that's worth an extra tick.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Burmester was the narrow favourite before the off in 2023 but Denmark's J.B Hansen was a 60.059/1 chance five years ago, so he couldn't be considered one of the fancied runners, and five of the last seven winners have begun the event trading at a triple-figure price so it's been a fantastic tournament for outsiders of late, wherever it's been staged.

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In-Play Tactics

Burmester trailed by six in a tie for 19^th after round one in 2023 but after a 62 in round two he was third at halfway and second with a round to go and Justin Rose started slowly when winning here in 2002. He sat tied for 52^nd and five off the lead after round one and Mark Foster trailed by the same margin in 2003, but all the other course winners have started smartly.

Siem was tied for the lead after round one in 2004, and having sat second after the opening day, both Els and Johnstone led all the way from halfway.

Bradbury won wire-to-wire in 2022 and the top-five were all inside the top-four and ties at the halfway stage so concentrating on the very top of the leaderboard from a long way out might pay dividends.

It's not a tough track and the last two winners both comfortably got it to double-digits under-par, but it does have a bit of a tricky finish.

The par four 15^th has been the toughest hole on the course for the last two editions - averaging 4.47 and 4.5- and the par three 16^th and par four 18^th were the fifth and seventh hardest in 2022, and the sixth and seventh toughest in 2023.

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Van Tonder chanced again

It's 20/121.00 the field on the Exchange and that shows just how wide open the event is.

The promising Jayden Schaper is the man to beat according to the market, but the 23-year-old is still yet to win on any Tour.

Fellow South African, Daniel Van Tonder, who has won once on the DP World Tour and 12 times on the Sunshine Tour, makes much more appeal at almost twice the price.

Van Tonder missed the cut when a selection in the South African Open last week, but anyone can have a bad day so I'm happy to overlook it.

He followed Thursday's miserable four-over-par 76 with a bogey-free seven-under-par 65 to miss the cut by one so he can hardly be described as out of form given he'd finished inside the top 10 in each of his previous five starts, and that he's already won twice this year.

As Matt Cooper highlights in his each-way piece, Van Tonder enjoys this sort of test, and although he missed the cut here in 2023, he was third on debut in 2022 behind Dan Bradbury.

He'll do for me at 40.039/1 and I'll have two more later today or tomorrow for the Find Me a 100 Winner column.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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