John Deere Classic: In-form pair chanced before the off at 45/1 and 69/1

• Superb scrambling the key to success at Deere Run

• First time winners have a great record

• Read my BMW International open preview here

---

Tournament History

Originally called the Quad Cities Open, the John Deere Classic was first staged as a satellite tournament on the PGA Tour way back in 1971. It became an official event 12 months later and this year's renewal is the 54^th.

Initially played at the Crow Valley Country Club in Davenport, Iowa, the tournament moved to Oakwood Country Club in Illinois in 1975 and since 2000 its permanent home has been here at Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic used to be staged in the week before the Open Championship but as next week's DP World Tour event - the Scottish Open - is now co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, for the fourth year in-a-row, this year's edition is being staged two weeks before the year's final major.

---

Venue

TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois

---

Course Details

Par 71 - 7,289 yards 
Stroke Index in 2024 - 68.78

Designed by D.A Weibring and sitting on old Native American settlements, TPC Deere Run is a very easy track indeed, where low scores are very much the norm. 

Despite current form figures reading MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-54-10, 350.0349/1 chance, Hayden Springer, opened up last year's renewal with a 12-under-par 59 and J.T Poston won wire-to wire three years ago, after opening the event with a nine-under-par 62.

 

Paul Goydos also shot 59 here in 2010 and the surprise 2018 winner, Michael Kim, amassed a 27-under-par total with rounds of 63, 64, 64 and 66.

That was the tournament record up until last year when Davis Thompson posted rounds of 63, 67, 62 and 64 to get to 28-under-par!

Water is in play on five holes and the average-sized bentgrass greens are usually set to run at 12 on the Stimpmeter. 

The two nines end with what usually rank as the two hardest holes on the course (both par fours) but they're far from impossible. 

They ranked one and three last year but they only averaged 4.21 and 4.07 and only four holes averaged over-par for the week 12 months ago.

---

Weather forecast

---

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 19:00 on Thursday

---

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Davis Thompson -28 24.023/1
2023 - Sepp Straka -21 75.074/1
2022 - J.T Poston -25 50.049/1
2021 - Lucas Glover -19 70.069/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Dylan Frittelli -21 90.089/1
2018 - Michael Kim -27 800.0799/1
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau -18 55.054/1
2016 - Ryan Moore -22 32.031/1

---

What Will it Take to Win the John Deere Classic?

The last ten winners here have had an average Driving Distance ranking of 28.4 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of 24.2 so what you do off the tee is largely unimportant.

Lucas Glover only ranked 15^th for Greens In Regulation in 2021 but last year's winner, Thompson, ranked ninth, the 2023 winner, Sepp Straka, ranked first, JT Poston ranked fourth three years ago and the two winners before Glover ranked second and seventh.

No winner in the last decade has ranked any worse than 34^th for GIR (Jordan Spieth) and the average GIR ranking for the last ten winners is 13th so approach play is clearly important, but this event is nearly always won on or around the greens.

Poston only ranked 27^th for Putting Average in 2022, which is surprisingly high given he's an excellent putter, but Thomspon ranked first last year, Straka ranked second in 2023, Glover topped the PA stats in 2021 and although Frittelli only ranked 22^nd in 2019, he ranked second for Strokes Gained Putting, and he made all 53 putts he faced inside seven feet. He missed just two of 62 inside ten feet and Russell Henley, in second place, ranked first for PA.

The 2018 winner, Kim, ranked first for both PA and Strokes Gained Putting, the first two home in 2017 ranked second and first for SG:P and the average Putting Average ranking of the last ten winners is 9.3.

A hot putter is usually essential but so too is a deft touch around the greens most years. Straka ranked only 42^nd for Scrambling two years ago but three of the first four ranked inside the top six for Scrambling, Poston ranked third in 2022, Glover ranked fifth in 2021, and three of the last eight winners have ranked first.

The average Scrambling ranking for the last ten winners is 13.7 despite Straka's lowly ranking two years ago.

---

Is There an Angle In?

Form at Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge, is well worth scrutinising and the Valspar Championship at Copperhead is an event to look at closely too.

Since this event moved to Deere Run, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Kenny Perry, and Jordan Spieth have won both this event and the Charles Schwab and Tim Clark has come close to winning both, finishing runner-up in each event.

Sean O'Hair, who won this tournament in 2005, finished tied for second at the 2017 Charles Schwab Challenge, alongside Deere Run specialist, Jordan Spieth, and the 2014 JDC winner, Brian Harman, finished tied for seventh alongside Stricker. The 2019 Charles Schwab winner, Kevin Na, finished second here in 2021.

The 2023 Charles Schwab winner, Emiliano Grillo, finished second here on debut and behind Grillo in sixth in the CSC (beaten by three) was the surprise 2018 JDC winner, Michael Kim, and that was only his third top-six finish on the PGA Tour since he won here five years ago.

Straka boosted the link between the two tracks when he finished fifth at Colonial last year and this year's Charles Schwab winner, Ben Griffin, has only played here once before, finishing fifth last year.

The 2016 John Deere Classic winner, Ryan Moore, should have won the Valspar at Copperhead here years ago and he was fifth there last year.

As many as four men have won that tournament as well as this one - the aforementioned Spieth, John Senden, Sean O'Hair and Vijay Singh - and the link was boosted again last year when Cameron Young finished second to the surprise winner, Peter Malnati. Young led here by two in 2023 on his course debut before fading to finish sixth.

---

Is There an Identikit Winner?

Having finished ninth in the US Open and second in the Rocket Classic in his two previous starts, last year's winner was bang in form and fairly well-fancied at 24.023/1 but short-priced winners are rare.

Although they all went off at a double-figure price, none of the four winners before Thomspon were well-fancied and the 2018 winner, Michael Kim, must go down as one of the strangest ever winners on the PGA Tour.

Matched at 800.0799/1 before the off, Kim came into the event with form figures reading MC-MC-18-MC-MC-MC and although he's been resurrecting his career over the last three years, he's been largely disappointing since he won here.

Brian Harman was another triple-figure priced winner in 2016, but you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the previous winner to go off at more than a double-digit price. Dave Gossett was around the 125/1 mark.

Bryson DeChambeau was a 50/151.00 chance eight years ago and Spieth was 40/141.00 when he won his first PGA Tour title here 12 years ago.

This is a great place for up-and-coming players and six of the last 11 winners have been getting off the mark on the PGA Tour for the first time here. In addition to the top-class Scott Hoch, who really should have won the 1989 US Masters, major champions, David Toms, Payne Stewart, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau all won their first PGA Tour titles at the John Deere Classic.

---

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Davis Thompson - led by two 2.26/5
2023 - Sepp Straka T14th - trailing by four 70.069/1
2022 - J.T Poston led by three 2.111/10
2021 - Lucas Glover T12th - trailing by four 50.049/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Dylan Frittelli T5th - trailing by two 16.015/1
2018 - Michael Kim - led by five 1.422/5
2017 - Bryson DeChambeau 2^nd - trailing by two 9.417/2
2016 - Ryan Moore - led by two 2.166/5

---

In-Play Tactics    

Davis was inside the top-four all week last year, Poston won wire-to-wire in 2022, and prior to 2021, we had to go all the way back to 1981 to find the last player to win the title from outside the top-ten after 54 holes but two of the last four winners have sat outside the top 10 and a slow start can be overcome.

Glover caused a bit of a shock in 2021 when he won from tied 12^th with a round to go and Straka was matched in-running at 1000.0999/1 after a dreadful start in 2023.

The Austrian sat tied for 133^rd and 11 strokes off the lead after a two-over par 73 on Thursday and he was still seven back and tied for 27^th after shooting ten strokes less on Friday.

A 65 on Saturday saw him go into round four trailing by four in a tie for 14^th and trading at 70.069/1 but after a late stumble by Brendon Todd, who was matched in-running at just 1.758/11, Straka's brilliant 62 on Sunday saw him win by two! And Straka wasn't the only recent winner to start slowly.  

Although inside the top ten, Jordan Spieth was six back with 18 to play in 2013 but he birdied five of the last six to claim his first title and he confounded the stats two years later too. He sat tied for 101^st and eight adrift after round one but he led by two after round three following a 64 in round two and a 61 in round three.

Bryson DeChambeau's finish in 2017 wasn't too dissimilar to Spieth's in 2013 as he birdied seven of the last ten holes to take the title and in-running drama is quite often witnessed at Deere Run.

---

Ben's the man to beat

Since getting off the mark on the PGA Tour alongside Andrew Novak at the Zurich Classic pairs event at the end of April, the 29-year-old American, Ben Griffin, has not looked back.

Top 10 finishes at both the US PGA Championship and the US Open have been far and away his best performances in major championships. A week after winning his first individual event, at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he pushed Scottie Scheffler all the way at the Memorial Tournament, where he eventually finished runner-up.

He's finished 14^th at the Travelers Championship and 13^th last week at the Rocket Classic in his last two starts so he arrives at Deere Run as the man to beat and the market favourite.

As highlighted above, he finished fifth here on debut 12 months ago and he's very hard to dismiss in what is a decidedly weak renewal.

As a demonstration of just how open an event this is, the Aussie veteran, Jason Day, is the only other man in the field trading at less 30.029/1.

Having finished 23^rd in the US Open and fourth at the Travelers in his last two starts, Day's in fair form but with course form figures reading 67-41-15-15-68-23, he makes no appeal.

---

In-form pair chanced before the off

Looking at the profile of the winners here, they tend to be priced up in the mid-range and two players in that region caught my eye - Jake Knapp and Nico Echavarria.

In an event were shooting low scores day after day is imperative, last year's Mexico Open winner, Jake Knapp, is a very obvious candidate.

The 31-year-old Californian shot rounds of 67, 64 and 63 to take a four-stroke lead into day four in Mexico (won by two after a 71 on Sunday) and that's far from his only impressive performance in a low-scoring birdie-fest like this.

Knapp sat second with a round to go (finished eighth) in last year's Byron Nelson after rounds of 64, 64 and 67 and he's twice shot super low rounds already this year.

Knapp set the new course record with his 11-under-par 61 at Detroit last week, where he eventually missed out on the playoff by a solitary stroke, but that pales into insignificance when compared to his mid-blowing 59 around PGA National at the Cognizant Classic back in early March, where he missed an eagle putt on the 18^th to record a 58!

12 birdies on the scorecard @KnappTime_LTD records the 15th sub-60 round in PGA TOUR history. pic.twitter.com/ZBXFVdL3AU

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 27, 2025

Knapp made his debut here 12 months ago, when he only finished 52^nd but he's hard to ignore after last week's tied fourth and 44.043/1 looks fair.

A stroke behind Knapp last week, in a tie for sixth, was the two-time PGA Tour winner, Nico Echavarria, and he too was impossible to dismiss at 70.069/1.

His top six finish on Sunday was the 30-year-old Columbian's first top 15 finish since he was beaten in extra time at the Sony Open in January but he too like's a low scoring event and he held his form nicely at the end of last year so there's every chance he'll build on last week's eye-catching effort.

Echavarria won the Puerto Rico Open in 2023 in 21-under-par and he got to -20 when holding off Max Greyserman and Justin Thomas at the ZOZO Championship in October last year.

Following the victory in Japan, Echavarria finished sixth at the World Wide Championship in Mexico, where he led by two with a round to go, and he finished runner-up at the RSM Classic at the end of November, before his playoff defeat in Hawaii in January.

In two previous starts here, he's missed the cut and finished tied for 52^nd so he doesn't exactly tick the course form box but it's noteworthy that he led the Valspar Championship through 54 holes in March and form there holds up nicely here.

---

Now read more golf previews and tips here

---