The Punter's In-Play Blog: Hot putting Hideki shoots clear in Memphis

• Off and running at the Czech Masters

• Odds-on Matsuyama still fairly priced

• Burns has history to inspire him

08:30 - August 18, 2024

The final round of the Czech Masters is underway and live on Sky and so far, the stormy weather appears to be staying away. I'll look back on the result of that event in tomorrow's De-brief but for now I'm concentrating on the week's main event in Memphis - the FedEx St Jude Championship.

Pre-event 90.089/1 pick, Sam Burns, was matched at a low of 3.7511/4 after a fast start to round three of the FedEx St Jude Championship but a bogey at seven was followed by a double at nine, where he broke his driver in anger after a poor drive, and he looks like an also ran now.

In contrast, the 36-hole leader, Hideki Matsuyama, played superbly all day and after scrambling a couple of pars at the last two holes, he now leads by five with a round to go. Here's the 54 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 8:20.

Hideki Matsuyama -17 1.261/4
Nick Dunlap -12 21.020/1
Viktor Hovland -11 19.5
Scottie Scheffler -10 14.013/1
Sam Burns -10 50.049/1
-9 and 140.0139/1 bar

Five stroke 54 hole leaders have a better than 80% strike rate on the PGA Tour and 13 of the last 14 have all gone on to win so although he may look short at first glance, the Japanese is actually a very fair price at better than 1/41.25.

Lee Hodges, at the 3M Open last July, is the last man to hold such an advantage and he went on to win by seven.

Burns and Matsuyama lost a playoff here in 2021 having trailed by eight and nine strokes respectively after three rounds so lots of ground has been made up here in round four recently.

If anyone is going to catch the leader then Scottie Scheffler is the most likely candidate but in addition to his rally here three years ago, Burns can draw inspiration from his victory at Colonial last year where he trailed by seven with a round to go.

If, and it's a huge if, he can cut out the errors, he's arguably a big price at 50.049/1 but it's impossible to look past the leader.

18:10 - August 17, 2024

The decision to start the third round of the Czech Masters early today was vindicated when the threat of lightening caused a three-hour delay.

The hot and steamy weather is forecasted to continue tomorrow so the tee-times have been brought forward again and we're likely to experience another stop-start day.

As my 80.079/1 pre-event fancy, Brandon Robinson-Thompson, is bang in-contention, I obviously hope we get 72 holes played but there must be a slight chance that we don't get any play tomorrow and the event gets reduced to 54 holes.

Here's the current state of play with prices to back at 18:00.

Jesper Svensson -16 2.982/1
David Ravetto -15 9.417/2
Brandon Robinson-Thompson -14 11.010/1
Ross Fisher -14 12.011/1
Adrien Saddier -14 13.012/1
Andrew Johnston -14 15.014/1
Andy Sullivan -13 20.019/1
Robin Williams -13 23.022/1
Richie Ramsay -13 40.039/1
Francesco Laporta -13 40.039/1
Richard Mansell -12 34.033/1
-11 and 70.069/1 bar

Jesper Svensson heads the market, but the Singapore Classic winner looks short enough at around 2/13.00 with as many as nine players within three strokes of the Swede.

Svensson came from five strokes back when he won in Singapore and this is the first time he's entered the final round in front on the DP World Tour.

He's been just two of the lead with a round to go twice on the Challenge Tour a couple of times and he fared well. Winning the B-NL Challenge Trophy in 2023 before losing a playoff at the Swiss Challenge four months later, but he hasn't done quite so well when close to the lead on the DP World Tour...

He finished second at the South African Open (beaten by three), having sat two off the lead with a round to go in December last year and he shot 70 in round four of the Bahrain Championship in February to finish second again (beaten by two), having sat third and three off the lead after three rounds.

He has won since those two reasonable efforts so he should be confident enough but I'm happy to let him go unbacked.

There's plenty of experience on the leaderboard with the likes of Andrew Johnston, Ross Fisher, Richie Ramsay and Matt Cooper's each-way fancy, Andy Sullivan, all on the premises but the one I'm happy to chance is the up-and-coming South African, Robin Williams.

This event has been a great tournament for first time winners on the DP World Tour and being slightly off the pace may help the 22-year-old.

The third round of the FedEx St Jude Championship is well underway and live on Sky and I'll be back tomorrow with a look at that one with a round to go.

10:00 - August 17, 2024

Due to the prospect of some thundery weather late in the day, round three has already started at the Czech Masters on the DP World Tour and it's currently live on Sky Sports.

I'll be back later today with a look at the state of play with a round to go there but for now I'm concentrating on the week's main event - the FedEx St Jude Championship in Memphis - where Hideki Matsuyama and Denny McCarthy are tied at the top at halfway.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 9:50.

Hideki Matsuyama -11 4.03/1
Denny McCarthy -11 10.519/2
Sam Burns -10 8.415/2
Scottie Scheffler -9 2.982/1
Justin Rose -8 36.035/1
Nick Dunlap -8 55.054/1
Viktor Hovland -7 26.025/1
Billy Horschel -7 40.039/1
Robert MacIntyre -7 65.064/1
Will Zalatoris -6 130.0129/1
Chris Kirk -6 190.0189/1
Erik Van Rooyen -6 200.0199/1
Xander Schauffele -5 36.035/1
-5 and 130.0129/1 bar

Up with the pace is usually the place to be here.

Between 2009 and 2018, six of the ten course winners at TPC Southwind were in front at halfway and in 2011, Robert Karlsson, who led by three after two rounds, was beaten in a playoff.

Lucas Glover led by a stroke at this stage last year when he won the title, but the previous four course winners all came from off the pace.

Will Zalatoris sat 17^th and five off the lead two years ago, Brooks Koepka was seventh and four adrift in 2019 and Justin Thomas was seven off the lead in 2020. That's as far back at halfway as any course winner this century but that record was almost broken 12 months later.

Abraham Ancer got the better of Matsuyama and Sam Burns in extra time in 2021 having trailed by two at halfway but Matsuyama had been ten strokes back after 36 holes so we can't rule out an off the pace winner.

Although Matsuyama and McCarthy lead, after a smart finish to round two, Scottie Scheffler is the very obvious danger.

The world number one was matched at as high as 6.611/2 after he'd played his first 14 holes in just two-under-par but three birdies in-a-row from the 15^th smartened up the card nicely and he's most definitely the one to beat now.

I'm happy to swerve Scheffler at less than 2/13.00 and although I was tempted by Matsuyama at the close of play, he's shortened up overnight and this morning and he's just short enough at 3/14.00.

The Japanese has Ryo Hisatsune's caddie on the bag this week after his usual caddie, Shota, had to return to Japan after his wallet was stolen in London last week but that hasn't hindered his form on the greens.

Matsuyama tops the Strokes Gained: Putting stats at halfway but I just wonder if that's sustainable over the weekend.

Denny McCarthy looks fairly priced and no more than that given he's still yet to win on the PGA Tour and I'm more than happy to swerve him too.

I'm very happy to have pre-event 90.089/1 chance, Sam Burns, bang in-contention but I have added one more at a juicy price.

We've seen a number of course debutants win here fairly recently. Lee Westwood, Harris English, Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger all won on their first visit to TPC Southwind and that's one of the reasons I'm happy to chance Nick Dunlap modestly at 55.054/1.

Already a two-time winner this year - at the American Express when still an amateur and just last month at the Barracuda Championship - the 20-year-old is clearly the brightest of young stars on the PGA Tour and he looks fractionally over-priced given he only trails by three and that he's no bigger than 40/141.00 on the High Street.

21:40 - August 15, 2024

After finishing his opening round with six consecutive birdies, pre-event 570.0569/1 chance, Peter Moolman, leads the Czech Masters after day one but with six players a stroke back on -7 in a tie for second and six others just two off the South African's early lead, I wouldn't be in a rush to back the leader. I don't think we can look too far down the leaderboard though...

With the scoring as low as it is, and with no poor weather forecasted in the near future, the birdies are going to continue to flow and making up ground may be tough.

The Singapore Classic winner, Jesper Svensson, who sits tied for second is the early favourite but he's already off the mark on the DP World Tour and this event tends to go to a first time winner so the one I like is the rapidly improving Sheffielder, Sam Bairstow, who finished third behind Svensson in Singapore.

The 26-year-old missed the cut at the US Open in June but that was when he really advertised just how good he is, following up a nervy 84 in round one at Pinehurst with an exceptional 67. A round that was only bettered by Hideki Matsuyama.

He's not a huge price at 11/112.00 on the Sportsbook or 13.5 on the exchange but given he trails by only two, that he has an early tee time in the morning, and that he was a fairly well-fancied 40.039/1 chance before the off, I was happy to get him onside.

Over at the FedEx St Jude Championship, Scottie Scheffler has already been matched at as low as 2.427/5, despite finding water on the par five third (made par).

My pre-event 90.089/1 fancy, Sam Burns, was matched at 13.012/1 after he played his first ten holes in five-under-par but he found water off the tee on the par three 14^th and made a mess of the 15^th too.

At the time of writing Scheffler is three-under-par through 13 holes and that's four off the first round leader, Chris Kirk, who's day was boosted considerably by this ace at the par three 14^th.

AN ACE FOR THE LEADER!

Chris Kirk makes a 1 on the 205-yard par-3 14th.

(Presented by @CocaCola) pic.twitter.com/whI76y4XtH

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 15, 2024

The pre-event 450.0449/1 chance bogeyed the 18^th but he still leads by a stroke over fellow outsiders, Taylor Pendrith and Matthieu Pavon, after a six-under-par 64.

I'll update again if I get involved before round two but I'm sitting on my hands for now.

Czech Masters pre-event picks:
Frederic Lacroix @ 80.079/1
Brandon Robinson-Thompson @ 80.079/1

In-Play Pick:
Sam Bairstow @ 13.5

FedEx St Jude Championship pre-event picks:
Aaron Rai @ 65.064/1
Sam Burns @ 90.089/1

In-Play Pick:
Nick Dunlap @ 55.054/1

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