FedEx St Jude Championship: Rai and Burns backed at TPC Southwind

• Par 4 Scoring and Scrambling are key stats

• Can Arron emulate Lucas at Southwind?

• Look to Waialae Country Club for clues

• Get a FREE bet every time your team scores a goal in August!

---

Tournament History

There has been a PGA Tour event staged in Memphis since 1958.

Originally known as the Memphis Open, the St Jude Invitational was a fairly big event on the PGA Tour for years, but its status was elevated considerably in 2018 when it became one of the high-profile World Golf Championship events.

The WGC events are consigned to history now, after the final edition of the WGC Match Play in March last year, but the FedEx St Jude Championship is still a very prestigious event having replaced the Northern Trust two years ago - an event that had kicked off the FedEx Cup Playoff Series since its inception in 2007.

The first of three FedEx Cup Playoff Series events, the FedEx St Jude Championship is a limited field event for the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings after the last counting event (last week's Wyndham Championship). The FedEx Cup Playoff Series was reduced from four events to three in 2019 and the field numbers were reduced 12 months ago.

A field of 125 lined-up here two years ago but for the second year in-a-row the field has been reduced to 70 and at the end of this event, the top 50 in the standings will move on to Castle Pines in Colorado for the BMW Championship before the top-30 fight it out at East Lake in a fortnight's time to determine the overall FedEx Cup winner.

This will the 36th year in-a-row that TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event.

---

Venue

TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee

---

Course Details

Par 70 -7,2343 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 68.64

Designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with Fuzzy Zoeller and Hubert Green, and opened in 1988, TPC Southwind has always been a fairly stern test, but it was made even tougher 10 years ago.

An additional 125 trees were planted, 15 new bunkers were added (taking the total up to 96), the par five fifth was converted to a par four (reducing the par to 70), Zoysia fairways were re-contoured and narrowed and over 200 yards were added.

The smaller than average greens, which usually run at 12 on the stimpmeter, were also changed from bentgrass to Bermuda. Water is in play on 10 holes at Southwind and nine holes are doglegs.

---

Weather Forecast

---

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days beginning at 17:00 UK time on Thursday

---

Recent TPC Southwind with Pre-event Exchange Prices

First Two FedEx St Jude Winners with Exchange Price

2023 - Lucas Glover -15 (Playoff) 120.0119/1
2022 - Will Zalatoris -15 (Playoff) 23.022/1

WGC FedEx St Jude Winners with Exchange Prices

2021 - Abraham Ancer -16 55.054/1 -16 (playoff)
2020 - Justin Thomas - 13 14.5
2019 - Brooks Koepka -16 11.010/1

Last Four St Jude Winners with Exchange Prices

2018 - Dustin Johnson -19 8.27/1
2017 - Daniel Berger -10 34.033/1
2016 - Daniel Berger -13 30.029/1
2015 - Fabian Gomez -13 600.0599/1

---

What Will it Take to Win the FedEx St Jude Championship?

None of the driving stats stand out at TPC Southwind. The last four winners have ranked 16^th, 18^th,,16^th and 31^st for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and neither of the traditional driving metrics - Driving Distance or Driving Accuracy - have come to the fore consistently. It's not so fiddly that you need to be arrow-straight off the tee either. Last year's winner, Lucas Glover, ranked 37^th for DD and 15^th for DA

Glover ranked only 37^th for Greens In Regulation and 10 years ago, the winner, Ben Crane, only ranked 47^th. But GIR is usually a great indicator and Glover and Crane are the only course winners in the last 14 years not to rank inside the top 10 for that stat.

Daniel Berger, who won back-to-back here in 2016 and 2017, had Scrambling stats that were much worse than most Southwind winners. He ranked 24^th seven years ago and 38^th in 2017 but seven of the 10 winners before him ranked no worse than seventh.

The first and second in 2018 ranked fourth and third for Scrambling, Koepka ranked number one in 2019, Thomas ranked seventh in 2021, Abraham Ancer ranked first in 2021, Zalatoris ranked seventh two years ago, and Glover topped the Scrambling stats 12 months ago.

Glover and the man he beat in extra-time, Patrick Cantlay, played the par fours in eight-under-par last year and that was better than anyone else in the field. The two playoff protagonists 12 months earlier, Will Zalatoris and Sepp Straka, ranked second and first for Par 4 Scoring, Abraham Ancer ranked third when he won here in 2021, and the 2020 course winner, Justin Thomas, ranked second.

The 2019 winner, Brooks Koepka, and the runner-up, Webb Simpson, ranked first and third, Dustin Johnson and Andrew Putnam, the first two home in 2018, ranked first and second for Par 4 Scoring, so 10 of the last 11 course winners ranked inside the top-four for that stat.

Par 4 Scoring and Scrambling are the two stats to concentrate on.

There were no Strokes Gained stats for the 2019 and 2020 events here but in the last five tournaments here in which there were SG stats, the winners have ranked first, first, fourth, first and fourth for SG: Tee-to Green.

---

Is There an Angle In?

With previous figures reading 18-MC-15, the 2021 course winner, Abraham Ancer, didn't have a brilliant Southwind CV. But last year's champ, Glover, had finished third the year before he won and the 2022 winner, Zalatoris, had finished eighth on his only previous appearance.

Justin Thomas had finished 12^th on debut in 2019 before winning in 2020, Brooks Koepka has course form figures reading 19-3-2-27-30-1-2-54 at TPC Southwind, Dustin Johnson was winning here for a second time in 2018, and Daniel Berger has figures reading 1-1-MC-2-5. But prior to eight years ago previous course form had been far from essential, and debutants had a really good record.

In his two visits before his win nine years ago, Fabian Gomez had finished 15th on debut in 2011 before missing the cut in 2013, and the 2014 winner, Ben Crane, had inconsistent course form figures reading MC-6-33-39-14-12-MC-18, but at least they'd played the course before.

Berger was making his debut when he won in 2016, the 2013 winner, Harris English, was playing in his first event at TPC Southwind, DJ had never played here before when he won in 2012 and neither had the 2011 champ, Lee Westwood, who beat another first-timer, Robert Karlsson, in a playoff.

Course form may have been key of late, but I wouldn't dismiss anyone on account of a lack of course knowledge.

Several courses correlate nicely with TPC Southwind. Results at the Puerto Rico Open, the RSM Classic, the Colonial National Invitational and the World Wide Technology in Mexico, when it was played at El Camaleon, are all worth checking out but the strongest correlation appears to be with the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Fabian Gomez, Justin Thomas and David Toms have won at both TPC Southwind and Waialae Country Club, home of the Sony Open. TPC Southwind winners, Harris English, Harrison Frazar and Brian Gay, have all also been placed in Hawaii.

The 2020 Sony Open winner, Cameron Smith, was in-contention here two years ago and he should have got into the playoff at least in 2021 (matched at a low of 2.3811/8). One of the three who did make it to extra-time in 2021, Hideki Matsuyama, won the Sony Open two years ago and last year's winner, Glover, finished fifth in the Sony in 2022.

---

Is There an Identikit Winner?

It may be worth placing a small wager on Aaron Rai, who won the Wyndham Championship late yesterday. And it may also be worth backing whoever wins here this week at the BMW Championship next week.

Lucas Glover went back-to-back last year, winning here after winning the Wyndham. After Viktor Hovland won both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship last year, we've now seen someone win two FedEx Cup Playoff events in nine of the last 11 years, and on a staggering 12 occasions in total.

I've often sided with the previous week's winner during the Playoff Series, but Glover's victory 12 months ago suggests that we can extend that system to backing the Wyndham winner here.

Abraham Ancer had just turned 30 when he won here in 2021, but Zalatoris won two days before his 26^th birthday in 2022 and five of the last eight winners have been in their 20s.

It looked like the profile of course winners may have been changing but 43-year-old Glover was a 120.0119/1 chance last year and, historically, this has been a very good venue for outsiders and veterans.

Like last week's venue, Sedgefield, TPC Southwind is a course that doesn't need to be overpowered so it gives the older pros a bit of a chance.

Fabian Gomez was matched at 610.0609/1 nine years ago and Ben Crane was a 270.0269/1 chance in 2014. In addition to those two, the likes of Harrison Frazar, Woody Austin, Jeff Maggert, Len Mattiace, Bob Estes, Notah Begay, Ted Tryba and Dicky Pride have all left punters scratching their heads over the last 20 odd years.

Prior to Berger's initial success six years ago, only four other men in their 20s had won here since 1989. Pride in 1994, Begay in 2000, Dustin Johnson in 2012 and English in 2013. And in that period, six winners had been in their 40s. Gomez was 36 in 2013, Crane was 38 a year later and Frazar was only days away from his 40th birthday 13 years ago.

---

Course Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Lucas Glover - led by one 3.65
2022 - Will Zalatoris - tied third - trailing by two 5.59/2
2021 - Abraham Ancer - solo fourth - trailing by four 18.017/1
2020 - Justin Thomas - solo fifth - trailing by four 10.09/1
2019 - Brooks Koepka - solo second - trailing by one 3.45
2018 - Dustin Johnson - tied for the lead 1.4640/85
2017 - Daniel Berger - T9 - trailing by three 20.019/1
2016 - Daniel Berger - leading by three 2.447/5
2015 - Fabian Gomez - tied for the lead 6.86/1

---

In-Play Tactics

Glover sat tied for fifth after round one and he was in front after rounds two and three before eventually beating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff but it's perfectly possible to win here from off the pace.

Having been very well supported before the off in 2022, Zalatoris drifted all the way out to 800.0799/1 when he played the first nine holes of the tournament in two-over-par, and he demonstrated perfectly how a slow start can be overcome when he sat tied for 86^th and nine adrift after round one.

A 62 in round two moved Ancer from tied 13^th to second and he was never more than five adrift three years ago. The 2020 winner, Thomas, however, sat fifth after the first round before falling back to 12^th at halfway. He was matched at 95.094/1 during round two and trailed by seven strokes at halfway but that's as far back at that stage as any course winner this century. An off the pace winner can't be ruled out if the 2021 renewal is anything to go by.

Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama muscled their way into the playoff, which was won by Ancer, having both been matched at 1000.0999/1 when trailing by eight and nine strokes respectively after three rounds. Berger's victory seven years was unusual given how slow he started.

He trailed by six after the opening round and, like Thomas, by seven at halfway. He was matched at a whopping 190.0189/1 in-running so there's plenty of evidence to suggest a slow start can be overcome. But most winners here are in the van throughout.

In 2019, Koepka was tied for 18^th and six behind the leader Jon Rahm after round one. The American was four adrift of the halfway pacesetter, Fitzpatrick, before moving in to second behind Rory McIlroy with a round to go.

For an indication as to how well the venue has favoured frontrunners, when Ben Crane won here nine years ago, he was the sixth wire-to-wire winner since 1996 and the first winner on the PGA Tour to fail to record a birdie in round four since Justin Leonard won here in 2005. That suggests that this really is somewhere that you can start fast and cling on.

---

Market Leaders

Since finishing 10^th at the Genesis Invitational in February, Scottie Scheffler has a better than 50% strike rate, winning seven of the 12 events he's played in, so in a limited field event, it would be ludicrous to consider his price too short at above 4/15.00 but I'm happy to swerve him this week.

Scheffler has a surprisingly poor record at TPC Southwind, with figures reading MC-43-15-14-MC-31, and he hasn't won back-to-back events since he followed his US Masters success with victory at the Heritage.

The world number two, Xander Schauffele, has a bank of course form reading 52-27-6-46-57-24, so he's not really shone here either.

Although he's won two majors this year - the US PGA Championship and the Open last month - Schauffele was far from bombproof in Paris two weeks ago, when he shot 73 on Sunday to slip from first to ninth and there's a chance that his remarkable purple patch may be over.

Rory McIlroy has fared far better at TPC Southwind than the front two in the market and he really should have won here.

His course form figures read 29-7-4-47-12-MC-3 but he led at halfway back in 2012 when he finished seventh and he led with a round to go on his next visit in 2019.

Rory's been playing well throughout the summer without getting his just rewards and he looks fairly priced at 12/113.00.

He really should have won the US Open, he was a respectable fourth when defending the Scottish Open in July and he came with a strong run on Sunday last time out in Paris, where he finished fifth.

He missed the cut in the Open Championship in-between his fourth in Scotland and his fifth in France but I can see him contending strongly here.

Collin Morikawa is the only other player trading at less than 25/126.00 and he's another I'm happy to swerve.

The world number six has been playing some brilliant and consistent golf all year, but he hasn't been able to find a way to finish the week in front and his last two performances suggest he might be on the wane.

Morikawa has reasonable course form figures reading 20-26-5-13 but having finished only 16^th at the Open Championship and 24^th in Paris in his last two starts, he needs to step up again if he's to contend here.

---

Selections

I'll be back later with the Find Me a 100 Winner column, where I'll have one more selection in this event, but I've also backed two players at a double-figure price.

As highlighted above, Lucas Glover won here last year after winning the Wyndham Championship and back-to-back winners are very common during the FedEx Cup playoffs, so I was happy to have a very small wager on the Wyndham winner, Aaron Rai, at 65.064/1.

The Englishman has been in stellar form all summer and although he doesn't have a brilliant Southwind portfolio, he shot 66-67 over the weekend when 12^th on debut back in 2019.

Rai has since finished only 26^th, 51^st and 49^th here but he'll be in good spirits after Sunday's victory and given he doesn't drink, we don't have to worry too much about a post-victory hangover.

Sam Burns was desperately disappointing on Sunday at the Open Championship last month, shooting 80 in round four after climbing into a tie for second on Saturday but his overall form of late has been strong, if a little inconsistent.

Since finishing 13^th in the Wells Fargo Championship, he's also finished inside the top-15 at the Canadian Open, the Memorial Tournament, the US Open and the 3M Open last time out.

Burns missed the cut on his first visit to Southwind in 2015 but he perhaps should have won here on his next visit in 2021 when he was matched at a low of 2.021/1 in extra time.

Having opened up with rounds of 66 and 64, Burns had sat fourth and three off the lead at halfway but a sorry 70 on Saturday saw him trail by eight with a round to go. He shot another 64 on Sunday to get into the playoff.

He was never in the hunt last year when finishing 52^nd but he sat seventh with a round to go in 2022 (finished 20^th) so it's clearly a course that suits his eye.

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

---