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Two outsiders to trade at this week's events
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Read my Czech Masters preview here
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Read my FedEx St Jude Championship preview here
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I didn't bother with the column at the Olympics, where the favourite, Scottie Scheffler, won anyway, but our 130.0129/1 pick in the 3M Open the week before, Patrick Fishburn, was matched at 12.5 in-running and last week's 140.0139/1 pick, Nick Taylor, hit a low of 11.010/1 at the Wyndham Championship. So it's been a frustrating couple of weeks for the column, with both men just failing to meet their first lay back targets.
Taylor actually missed the cut at the Wyndham after his fast start (eight-under-par and tied second after 16 holes of round one), where 1000.0999/1 fancy, Ben Taylor, started even faster!
The Englishman birdied his first six holes of his opening round, and he was matched at 40.039/1 in-running but he eventually finished tied for 52nd after a dreadful four-over-par final round.
We've got two events to choose from this week - the FedEx St Jude Championship on the PGA Tour and the Czech Masters on the DP World Tour - and both have rewarded longshot backers of late.
We went eight years between longshot winners at TPC Southwind. Fabian Gomez was a 600.0599/1 chance in 2015 and last year's victor, Lucas Glover, was a 120.0119/1 shot, so the jury is out as to whether this is still a great venue for outsiders.
The seven winners in-between Gomez and Glover all went off at 55.054/1 and below but, in addition to those two, Ben Crane was a 270.0269/1 chance in 2014. The likes of Harrison Frazar, Woody Austin, Jeff Maggert, Len Mattiace, Bob Estes, Notah Begay, Ted Tryba and Dicky Pride have all left punters scratching their heads at TPC Southwind over the last 20-odd years.
There have only been nine previous editions of the Czech Masters and outsiders have thrived. We've only had two triple-figure priced winners - Todd Clements last year at 700.0699/1 and 1000.0999/1 chance, Paul Peterson in 2016 - but four others have been priced at between 55.054/1 and 80.079/1, and first time winners have a great record in the event.
I'm going for just two picks this week, one in Memphis, and one in Prague.
There are plenty of players who appear to be very short in the market week after week but a few always look too big to me and last year's US Open winner falls firmly in the latter category.
Already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour, Wyndham Clark has risen to as high as number three in the Official World Rankings (currently ranked fifth) and yet week after week he goes off at a triple-figure price, despite performing at an extremely high level.
His last victory came in the weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but since then he's finished second to the world number one, Scheffler, in both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship. Clark was third behind Scheffler in the Heritage and matched his score over the last three weeks in Paris, where the world number one walked away with the gold medal.
After top-10 finishes at both the Travelers Championship and the Scottish Open, Clark was disappointing in the Open, where he missed the cut, and his chance was lost in Paris when he shot 75 on day one, after he'd found water off the tee on the first three holes!
Clark sat 56th of 60 after that opening round but a 68 on Friday, and a pair of 65s over the weekend, saw him climb up into a tie for 14th . If he can build on that weekend, he's vastly over-priced here at triple-figures.
His first two visits to TPC Southwind have seen him finish 28th and 66th but he was on the wane here last year after a busy summer. That can be forgiven but he'd sat seventh and just four back with a round to go on debut two years ago, so there's no reason to think he can't win here.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1
The Czech Masters is a tough tournament to call at a new venue, but I thought Australia's David Micheluzzi was worth chancing at a big price.
The 28-year-old, who won four times in his homeland last year to top the PGA Tour of Australasia, has recently finished 10th at the Italian Open and second at the BMW International Open so it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him become the latest first-time winner on the DP World Tour to win the Czech Masters.
Micheluzzi missed the cut when a selection for the column at a shorter price last time out in the ISCO Championship in the States but, with the benefit of hindsight, that may have come a bit too soon after his fabulous second place finish in Germany the week before. He may have benefited from a bit of a break.
Place order to lay 8 Us @ 10.09/1 & 12 Us @ 2.01/1