The Punter

Find Me a 100 Winner: 139/1 Hoge can fire in Phoenix

Golfer Tom Hoge
Tom Hoge on the famous 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale

Matt Cooper has picked out three outsiders this week, backing one on the PGA Tour in Arizona and two on the DP World Tour in Qatar...

Steve noted last week that the DP World Tour was nine events into the 2024 season and there was yet to be one three-figure winner which was, of course, a notable contrast with what we've seen on the PGA Tour since New Year.

"It's a run that will surely come to an end sooner rather than later," he wrote, "so I'm more than happy to back South African longshot ..."

Alas his next two words were Brandon Stone not Dylan Frittelli who tossed aside his poor form of 2023 and provided a reminder of his touch of class with a solid victory having been backed pre-event at an average of 280.0279/1 on the exchange (Steve did, however, highlight Frittelli's threat at halfway).

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, Wyndham Clark landed the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am having been an average of 90.089/1 pre-event but also backed right up to 160.0159/1.

Here are three longshot picks ahead of this week's action.

Adrian Otaegui @ 120.0119/1

You cannot really argue that Adrian Otaegui's last showing on the course was any good.

An 80, which he shot last Friday in Bahrain, is poor whenever and wherever you are.

It led to a missed cut and a third straight failure to finish top 50. It also maintained a backward trend since he started the Desert Swing with a 67 for tied sixth in round one of the Dubai Invitational.

But in this field is the Spaniard really a triple figure chance?

He's a four-time winner on the DP World Tour and he ranks fourth in the field for stroke average over the last three years.

His third win came off three failures to crack the top 40 and his fourth came right after he shot 80-79 so he can bounce back from a shocker.

He was T10th at Doha in 2018 (when the leader at halfway) and fifth in 2022.

And I mentioned in my each-way preview that links and Earth Course form are handy pointers for this test - Otaegui has won at Fairmont St Andrews (links-ish) and finished fourth at Jumeirah.

Back Adrian Otaegui (2us) @ 120.0119/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Daan Huizing @ 180.0179/1

If the Dutchman Daan Huizing is to breakthrough anywhere at this level you suspect it will on a course where links savvy is a key asset.

In the amateur ranks he won both the Lytham Trophy and the St Andrews Links Trophy (his compatriot Rolf Muntz won the Amateur Championship ahead of winning this event).

He also won the Irish Challenge on the second tier at Portmarnock Links.

His best finish on the DP World Tour was third place at Hillside.

He was T10th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last October.

And he was T16th in this tournament last year, sitting inside the top 20 all week.

He has a nice record in the Middle East actually.

He's got three top 25 finishes at Al Mouj in Oman (another desert course which links fans enjoy), has been third at Al Hamra, he won the Jordan Mixed Open at Ayla and in the last few weeks he has been T25th at Emirates in the Dubai Desert Classic and T16th last week at the Royal Club in the Bahrain Championship.

Back Daan Huizing (2us) @ 180.0179/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Tom Hoge @ 140.0139/1

As Steve points out in his preview of the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale (link above) "accurate iron play has been the key here for the last decade or so" and Hoge has been superb in that part of the game in recent starts.

He ranked sixth for Strokes Gained Approach last week when also sixth on the leaderboard in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The was also sixth for Approach in The American Express and eighth in The Sentry.

It's following on from the end of last year when he ranked fourth in the BMW PGA Championship and fifth in the Sanderson Farms Championship.

He's got a decent record in the desert too, with four top 25 finishes in his last six starts at TPC Summerlin (including fourth and seventh) and he's been second and sixth in The American Express in Palm Springs (and closed with a pair of 65s last month).

At first glance he's only got two top 25s, and a best of T14th, from six visits to TPC Scottsdale.

But in four of his last five starts he has been inside the top 12 on the leaderboard at some stage in the week (after round one, two or three).

Back Tom Hoge (2us) @ 140.0139/1

Bet now

Place order to lay 8u @ 10.09/1 & 12u @ 2.01/1

Now read Dave Tindall's Phoenix Open each-way preview here!


Staked: 20.5 Us

Returned: 8 Us

P/L: -12.5Us


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