Golf Bets

Waste Management Phoenix Open 2024 Each-way Tips: Picks from 33/1 to 100/1

Japanese golfer Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama can shine in Phoenix again

The PGA Tour moves from California to Arizona this week and Dave Tindall has three bets for the action at TPC Scottsdale...

  • 33/134.00 Hideki Matsuyama is a two-time winner here

  • 50/151.00 Adam Hadwin is a local who thrives in the desert

  • 100/1101.00 Erik Van Rooyen knows how to win

The West Coast Swing has normally been a happy hunting ground for course horses.

But this year #Teamcourseform have been suffering a series of hits.

Grayson Murray (Sony Open), Nick Dunlap (The American Express) and Matthieu Pavon (Farmers Insurance Open) had either never even played at or made at cut at the scene of their victories.

At Pebble, the loss of the final round muddied the waters although Wyndham Clark's past course form of MC-18-MC was hardly compelling if that was the main angle on which to back him.

But if course form backers still have the faith, TPC Scottsdale is the ideal place to show it.

Scottie Scheffler has won the last two editions, Brooks Koepka was winning for a second time in 2021, Hideki Matsuyama went back-to-back in 2016 and 2017 while both 2020 winner Webb Simpson and 2019 champion Rickie Fowler finished runner-up three years before their triumphs.

Wind back further and you'll see that both Phil Mickelson and Mark Calcavecchia are triple winners of this annual showdown in the Arizona desert.

Looking at stats, this used to be an event where putting was a key metric but, more recently, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green has stood out.

Last year the top nine all ranked in the top 14 for SGTTG and Scheffler was first. By contrast, Jordan Spieth was only 51st for SG: Putting, with Justin Thomas 42nd and Tyrrell Hatton 40th and yet all three finished in the top six.

Of course, adding strong putting to the long game is best of all and if Scheffler matches his last two SGP performances here - second in 2022 and 13th in 2023 - the hat-trick is very much on.

Back Hideki Matsuyama @ 33/134.00

If being handed a 'win only' bet, I'd rather play Justin Thomas at 10/111.00 than Scheffler at 4/15.00.

JT looks like a winner waiting to happen after four straight worldwide top sixes. And here he has six-year form stretching back from 2023 that reads: 4-8-13-3-3-17.

But at over three times the odds of Thomas, I'll test the course horse theory with a bet on Hideki Matsuyama at 33s.

The Japanese star was fourth and second on his first two visits in 2014 and 2015 before winning the 2016 and 2017 editions.

He's since added three more top 16s including eighth in 2022. Clearly, his elite iron game is a great fit for this 7,250-yard par 71.

The big question is whether he's ready to win again after the vicious cycle of injury and poor form.

He didn't have a good week at Pebble but at the Farmers Insurance Open, the 2021 Masters winner ranked fifth for SG: Tee To Green and 11th for Approach.

That followed a top 30 in the Sony Open while he'd rounded 2023 off with a top 10 in his home Dunlop Phoenix Tournament.

In other words, he's left enough clues to suggest a third win in Phoenix wouldn't exactly be coming out of left field.

Matsuyama has always seemed to be something of an introvert but when asked to explain his success in this event, he once reflected: "I'm not really sure whether it's the course, but I do know that the tremendous galleries that we have here just invigorates me and gets me going. I love playing here."

Maybe that's the unlikely x-factor that will get him back to winning ways.

Back Hideki Matsuyama each-way @ 33/134.00

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Back Adam Hadwin @ 50/151.00

Adam Hadwin gave us an each-way return at 55s at The American Express last month and it makes plenty of sense to take him at a nice each-way price again.

That event was played in the California desert, Hadwin finishing tied sixth thanks to rounds of 65-65-66-67.

Three starts earlier, pre-Christmas, he'd finished runner-up in the Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas thanks to weekend scores of 63-67.

So what's all this hot form in the desert about for a Canadian? And can he bring the same good play from the dry, arid conditions in California and Nevada to Arizona this week?

There has to be a very realistic chance seeing as Hadwin makes Scottsdale his base now. Playing in these conditions in practice is clearly helping him get big results in desert events.

As for this one, Hadwin has made his last eight cuts at TPC Scottsdale, improving on a best of 12th to finish 10th last year.

In the last two Phoenix Opens, he was prominent throughout.

Two opening 66s gave him the halfway lead 12 months ago and he was fourth going into the last day. In 2022, Hadwin's end of round positions were second, fifth and seventh before he slipped on Sunday with a 74. A shame he couldn't replicate 2021's closing 67.

Looking at his Tee To Green stats in those two recent desert events, Hadwin was ninth at The American Express and sixth in Vegas so his long game has been on point when presented with similar visuals to this week's test.

Speaking in 2022 about this event, he said: "It's nice to be sleeping in your own bed, it's very comfortable and easy, I've played this course hundreds of times."

Back Adam Hadwin each-way @ 50/151.00

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Back Erik van Rooyen @ 100/1101.00

Over on the DP World Tour last week, Dylan Frittelli held his nerve to complete victory in the Bahrain Championship. It was his third win at that level.

So how about his good friend and former World Cup of Golf teammate Erik Van Rooyen feeling some extra inspiration and pulling off the same feat but on the PGA Tour?

Van Rooyen collected his first two titles by landing the 2021 Barracuda Championship and last November's World Wide Technology Championship.

And yet despite having twice crossed the line first in the last three seasons, he's a triple-figure price here.

On the face of it, that must be down to course form of 50-MC in his two visits to TPC Scottsdale.

But dig a little deeper and he fired a second-round 67 when making a halfway exit in 2021 while last year he closed with a 68.

Those are only hints but there's plenty of real evidence that he can perform strongly in desert conditions.

The South African made the top 25 at The American Express and the Shriners in his last two desert starts on the PGA Tour while he was sixth in the 2020 Amex.

Then there's his record in the desert on the DP World Tour. Van Rooyen was runner-up the last time he contested the Qatar Masters while his last four visits to the UAE show four top 15s in five starts across three different events. The most recent was fourth in the 2022 Dubai Desert Classic.

Since that victory in Mexico six tournaments ago, he's made all five cuts and reeled off three top 25s in his last four starts. At Pebble (T20) he was 19th for SG: Tee To Green.

Getting swing coach Sean Foley on board last summer has had a really positivie effect, EVR admits.

"Iron play is a strong suit of mine. It really just played right into my strengths," he said after his October win in Mexico.

And talking of Mexico, Van Rooyen was also once third in the WGC event at Chapultepec and noted the altitude in Mexico was similar to Johannesburg where he grew up.

With TPC Scottsdale over 1,500 feet above sea level, that's another sign perhaps that he can make it third time lucky on this course and put in a big display.

Back Erik Van Rooyen each-way @ 100/1101.00

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Now read Steve Rawlings' Phoenix preview here

Recommended bets

Dave's P/L for 2024

Staked: £150
Returned: £84
P/L: -£66

2022/2023 P/L: -£191.44
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.