The Punter

The Cadillac Championship: Young a fair price at 14/1

  • Steven Rawlings
  • Published on
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Cadillac Championship Tips
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The PGA Tour returns to the Blue Monster Course at Doral for the first time in 10 years for the inaugural edition of the Cadillac Championship and our man has the lowdown ahead of Thursday's start here... 


What happened last week? Fitzpatrick brothers hold on in New Orleans

The pre-event 12/113.00 chances, Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick, led the Zurich Classic by four strokes with 18 holes to play and were trading at as short as 1.331/3, but long odds-on backers endured a nervy final round.

They looked in complete control with a steady start but, after a birdie at the par five 11th, which saw them move to three-under-par for the day, they were tied with Alex Smalley and Hayden Springer with four holes to play after a double-bogey at the 12th and a bogey at the 14th

The Norwegian pairing of Kritoffer Reitan and Kris Ventura, who were matched at a low of 3.259/4, tied for the lead when they eagled the 72nd hole. Smalley and Springer were matched at as short as 1.910/11 before the momentum swung back in favour of the Fitzpatricks when Smalley missed for par from just inside 10 feet at the par three 17th.

Playing the 72nd hole, the Fitzpatricks needed a birdie or better to get the job done. Matt came up with the goods with this brilliant bunker shot, leaving Alex the simplest of tap-ins for the title.

Over on the DP World Tour, pre-event 50.049/1 chance Adrian Otaegui led the Volvo China Open by a stroke with a round to go. He hit a low of 1.152/13 when he led by three at the turn.

It looked highly likely that the 33-year-old was about to bag his sixth DP World Tour title but the 40-year-old Austrian Bernd Wiesberger, who was a 2/13.00 chance when he trailed by a stroke with a round to go, wasn't going to give up without a fight.

The pre-event 75.074/1 chance, who hit a high of 100.099/1 two days before the off, birdied 10 and 11 to apply the pressure and momentum swung in his favour when Otaegui bogeyed the par three 12th

Wiesberger recorded his final birdie of the day at the par four 13th to draw alongside Otaegui. A run of five straight pars was enough for him to win by three as Otaegui finished poorly with a bogey at 16 and a double at the last.


Cadillac Championship Tournament History

Up until 10 years ago, the Blue Monster Course at Doral staged a PGA Tour event every year for 54 years so it's great to see the Tour return for the first edition of the Cadillac Championship, which is the fifth of eight Signature Events in 2026.

Doral first featured on the PGA Tour when it hosted the Doral Open in 1962. That event was later known as the Ford Championship and it was staged until 2006 when the Ford was replaced by the now defunct WGC Championship, which was staged here until it moved to Mexico in 2017.

The WGC Championship, which was last staged in 2021 at the Concession Club in Florida, was known as the WGC Cadillac Championship between 2011 and 2016 so they were a natural sponsor for this brand-new event.


Venue

Trump National Doral, The Blue Monster Course, Doral, Florida.


Course Details

Par 72 -7,739 yards

The course earned the nickname "The Blue Monster" because water is in-play on the majority of holes and it was a really tough test. The first two winners of the Doral Open won with a score of -5. 

Technological advancements meant that year-after-year the winners were easily reaching double-digits under-par and the "Blue Monster" tag was becoming a bit of a joke. 

A year after Donald Trump had bought the venue, Tiger Woods won the last of his seven WGC Championship titles here in 2013 with a 19-under-par total, and prior to the 2014 tournament, all 18 holes were reworked by Gill Hanse in an attempt to tighten up the scoring. 

The result was dramatic. There were just seven bogey-free rounds all week and 318 balls found a watery grave. The previous record was 220. Patrick Reed went on to win with a total of just four-under-par. 

Those scores give the impression that the Blue Monster had been transformed in to a real beast but in 2015 J.B Holmes opened with a 10-under-par 62 to lead by four. 

Dustin Johnson went on to win in nine-under-par after Holmes shot 75 on Sunday when leading by five and Adam Scot won the final edition of the WGC event here in 2016 with a -12 total. 

Doral is an exposed layout so the strength of the wind has a sizable influence on the scoring. 

The Blue Monster has also staged a couple of individual LIV Golf Miami events recently (see below) won by Dean Burmester and Marc Leishman.


Weather Forecast


TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 16:30 (UK and Ireland) on Thursday.


Past Results at the Blue Monster

To provide a feel for the venue, I've listed the results, with the traditional stats, of the last eight tournaments held at the Blue Moster Course at Doral.

The two most recent events here were on the LIV Golf circuit and over only 54 holes and I've also listed all six editions of the WGC Championship when the tournament was known as the WGC Cadillac Championship, between 2011 and 2016. 


Two Individual LIV Golf Miami Results (54 holes)

(Key: DD - Driving Distance; DA - Driving Accuracy; GIR - Greens in Regulation; SC - Scrambling; PA - Putting Average)

2024
Dean Burmester -11 - DD: 5, DA: 43, GIR: 4, SC: 23, PA: 9 
Sergio Garcia -11 - DD: 22, DA: 6, GIR: 1, SC: 8, PA: 17 
Matthew Wolff -10 - DD: 1, DA: 1, GIR: 17, SC: 7, PA: 8 

2025
Marc Leishman -6 - DD: 35, DA: 15, GIR: 4, SC: 2, PA: 15 
Charl Schwartzel 5 - DD: 22, DA: 4, GIR: 38, SC: 1, PA: 1
Sergio Garcia -4 - DD: 15, DA: 33, GIR: 4, SC: 2, PA: 31 


WGC Cadillac Championship Results

(Key: DD - Driving Distance; DA - Driving Accuracy; GIR - Greens in Regulation; SC - Scrambling; PA - Putting Average)

2011
Nick Watney -16 - DD: 14, DA: 13, GIR: 12, SC: 9, PA: 2 
Dustin Johnson -14 - DD: 2, DA: 7, GIR: 11, SC: 1, PA: 32 
Anders Hansen -13 - DD: 41, DA: 3, GIR: 1, SC: 55, PA: 28 
Francesco Molinari -13 - DD: 57, DA: 2, GIR: 1, SC: 7, PA: 35 

2012
Justin Rose -16 - DD: 28, DA: 20, GIR: 21, SC: 8, PA: 5 
Bubba Watson -15 - DD: 1, DA: 68, GIR: 10, SC: 64, PA: 2
Rory McIlroy -14 - DD: 14, DA: 7, GIR: 15, SC: 53, PA: 21 

2013
Tiger Woods -19 - DD: 21, DA: 31, GIR: 6, SC: 24, PA: 1 
Steve Stricker -17 - DD: 51, DA: 15, GIR: 9, SC: 4, PA: 4 
Sergio Garcia -14 - DD: 32, DA: 15, GIR: 2, SC: 16, PA: 28
Graeme McDowell -14 - DD: 1, DA: 7, GIR: 5, SC: 12, PA: 15
Phil Mickelson -14 - DD: 28, DA: 20, GIR: 2, SC: 23, PA: 13 
Adam Scott -14 - DD: 2, DA: 12, GIR: 13, SC: 27, PA: 7

2014
Patrick Reed -4 - DD: 4, DA: 52, GIR: 28, SC: 6, PA: 24 
Jamie Donalson -3 - DD: 22, DA: 13, GIR: 8, SC: 3, PA: 37
Bubba Watson -3 - DD: 3, DA: 63, GIR: 38, SC: 5, PA: 13

2015
Dustin Johnson -9 - DD:1, DA: 41, GIR: 1, SC: 42, PA: 11 
J.B Holmes -8 - DD: 3, DA: 3, GIR: 20, SC: 17, PA: 9
Bubba Watson -7 - DD: 2, DA: 54, GIR: 25, SC: 1, PA: 30 

2016
Adam Scott -12 - DD: 16, DA: 42, GIR: 3, SC: 27, PA: 10 
Bubba Watson -11 - DD: 2, DA: 47, GIR: 1, SC: 33, PA: 29 
Rory McIlroy -10 - DD: 4, DA: 31, GIR: 12, SC: 1, PA: 18 
Danny Willett -10 - DD: 45, DA: 36, GIR: 12, SC: 9, PA: 1 
Phil Mickelson -9 - DD: 31, DA: 19, GIR: 12, SC: 1, PA: 7 


What Will it Take to Win the Cadillac Championship?

The Blue Monster is a very lengthy track so being long off the tee certainly helps but you can't just bomb it indiscriminately with so much water around.

With that in mind, the Total Driving stats on the PGA Tour is probably a decent place to start.

The last four course winners have ranked inside the top four for Greens In Regulation so, as it is most weeks, that's a key stat.


Is There an Angle In?

The most striking thing when looking at those last eight results at the venue listed above is just how many US Masters winners have played well here.

The first five home in the final edition of the WGC event in 2016 have all won at Augusta so that's clearly a decent angle in. 


Strong current form looks key

How much credence we give the LIV Golf form is debatable and Marc Leishman came into the 2024 event here in ordinary form but prior to that, strong current form has been crucial.

Dean Burmester, who beat Sergio Garcia in a playoff, had led the LIV Golf Hong Kong after round one around the fiddly tree-lined Fanling before finishing eighth in his last start before winning here and strong current form came to the fore in each of the last ? WGC winners here were all in sparkling form.

Adam Scot, in 2016, had just won the Cognizant Classic, Dustin Johnson, in 2015, had finished fourth at the AT&T at Pebble and runner-up at Riviera prior to winning here. Holmes had been beaten in a playoff at the Framers Insurance Open, exactly a month before finishing second here, and Bubba Watson had finished runner-up in Phoenix. 

Of the first four home in 2014, Patrick Reed had previously won what's now called The American Express, Bubba had won the Northern Open at Riviera (now known as the Genesis Invitational), and Dustin Johnson had been runner-up twice - behind Bubba at Riviera and behind Jimmy Walker in the AT&T Pebble Beach. And Jamie Donaldson, who finished runner-up, was playing better than his form figures suggested given he'd been inside the top six at halfway at the Cognizant Classic the week before. 

This doesn't appear to be a course where you can find your game from seemingly nowhere and a recent top-three finish looks a huge plus. 


Winner's Position Pre Final Round

2011 - Nick Watney - tied second, trailing by two
2012 - Justin Rose - tied second, trailing by three
2013 - Tiger Woods - led by four
2014 - Patrick Reed - led by two
2015 - Dustin Johnson - tied second, trailing by five
2016 - Adam Scot - tied second, trailing by three
2024 - Dean Burmester - tied second, trailing by two
2025 - Marc Leishman - tied third, trailing by three


In-Play Tactics

A year after winning the final edition of the Ford Championship at Doral, wire-to-wire, Tiger Woods won the first staging of the WGC event here in 2007. 

He trailed by four strokes in a tie for 10th after round one before leading all the way from halfway and that's the furthest any winner had trailed after round one in the 12 events staged here since 2007. 

Leishman sat tied for eighth and four back in the LIV Golf Miami event here last year, but the other 10 winners were all inside the top-five after 18 holes. 

Even though he trailed by six strokes, Dustin Johnson sat third after round one a decade ago and Holmes (who led by four after round one) very nearly became the fifth wire-to-wire in ten years. 

This really is a front-runner's course, and we need to be concentrating on those at the head of affairs from very early on but it is possible to get some drama here and it's a tough place to convert a lead with a round to go. 

Holmes led by fully five strokes through 54 holes in 2015 but was soon collared, having been matched at just 1.4640/85 during round three and Bubba Watson then threw the event away on Sunday, having been matched at just 1.341/3

In the 10 editions of the WGC event held here, there have been eight clear 54-hole leaders ranging between two and five strokes, and Tiger Woods (twice) was the only man to convert, but like the six men to lose their leads, he too shot a round in the 70s on Sunday. 

Woods won the 2007 edition by two after a 73 in round, after he'd led by four through three rounds, and he won the 2013 edition by two with a 71 on Sunday, having again led by four. 

If you're trading the event in-running, look out for the demanding final hole, where a par four is by no means a given. 

It was the hardest hole on the course when the PGA Tour was last here 10 years ago, averaging 4.43 throughout the week.


Young the sole selection

Cam Young's disappointing tied 25th in the RBC Heritage two weeks ago was a perfectly understandable performance following his near miss at Augusta.

The 28-year-old New Yorker was matched at as low as 2.111/10 to bag his first major at the US Masters after five holes on Sunday, so it was far from surprising to see his form dip the following week after his third-place finish behind Rory McIlroy.

Young, who won his first PGA Tour title last year in emphatic style at the Wyndham Championship, should take to Doral and with form figures reading 7-3-1-3-25, the Players Champion is a fair price in the Sportsbook's Win Only market at 14/115.00.

In addition to backing Young in a win only single, I've also doubled him up each-way with the Turkish Airlines Open favourite, David Puig.

There is a choice of place terms in both events of either eight or 12 places and I've gone for eight for both selections.


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