The Punter's De-Brief: Lawrence hits 240 on the Exchange but rallies to rack up Crans hat-trick

13:20 - September 7, 2026 - Halfway leader bounces back to win after hitting 239/1

After being matched at as short as 2.265/4 on Friday morning, before he finished his second round with a string of six straight pars, the halfway leader and defending champion, Thriston Lawrence was matched at as high as 240.0239/1 on the Betfair Exchange after a disastrous three-over-73 in round three.

Trailing the 54-hole leader, Paul Casey, by six in a tie for 10^th, the South African, who had also won the event in 2022, was generally a 150.0149/1 chance with 18 to play but he was soon back in the frame after a lightening fast start to round four.

The 29-year-old birdied four of his first seven holes and with the leaders stuttering, he soon hit the front with birdies at 10 and 12.

Spain's Eugenio Chacarra made a run, birdying four, five, six, seven and nine, and he was matched at a low of 3.814/5, despite starting the final round with a triple-bogey seven, but after shaky start, it was the overnight leader, Casey, that looked far and away the most likely winner.

He'd gone from three clear to three adrift after Lawrence had birdied the 14^th and Casey had bogeyed the eighth but to his credit, he birdied five of the next seven holes to hit the front again, with Lawrence in the clubhouse after a brilliant eight-under-par 62.

Casey was matched at as short as 1.091/11 in regulation play but after birdying the 18^th hole on the first three days, he made a mess of it when it really mattered.

He was lucky to avoid the stream with his approach but failed to get up-and-down from the rough for par and we were into extra time.

Casey was again matched at long odds-on several times as he repeatedly looked the most likely to prevail, but the tournament finally ended when pre-tournament 70.069/1 chance Lawrence drained this birdie putt at that fourth extra hole.

Every angle of Thriston Lawrence's winning putt to clinch the Omega European Masters #OEM2026 pic.twitter.com/RzEyqG7zKm

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 6, 2026

Lawrence has now won the title three times, matching the late great Seve's total.

The PGA Tour is taking another week off ahead of the Fall Series, but a competitive field will be lining up on Thursday morning for the Irish Open, which I've previewed here.

10:20 - September 6, 2026 - Casey looks short as he seeks his first win in five years

The halfway leader and defending champ, Thriston Lawrence, tumbled down the leaderboard at the Omega European Masters with a three-over-par 73 around Crans in round three, as Paul Casey shot three shots clear with a brilliant seven-under-par 63.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back on the Betfair Exchange at 10:15.

Paul Casey -16 2.3411/8
Eugenio Chacarra -13 7.613/2
Nacho Elvira -13 11.010/1
Erik Van Rooyen -13 13.525/2
Max Steinlechener -13 17.533/2
Angel Ayora -12 16.015/1
-11 and 34.033/1 bar

And here's where the last 10 winners were sitting with a round go at Crans, with the prices they were trading at.

2025 - Thriston Lawrence - led by one 3.3512/5
2024 - Matt Wallace - led by four 1.422/5
2023 - Ludvig Aberg - tied second, trailing by two 7.413/2
2022 - Thriston Lawrence - led by three 1.9110/11
2021 - Rasmus Hojgaard - tied 15^th, trailing by four 48.047/1
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Sebastian Soderberg -tied ninth, trailing by four 100.099/1
2018 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - led by two 1.738/11
2017 - Matthew Fitzpatrick - tied third - trailing by four 9.08/1
2016 - Alex Noren solo second - trailing by a stroke 2.6813/8

Between 2002 and 2021 Paul Casey held a clear lead with a round to go 13 times and he went on to win on five occasions, so he has a fair strike rate.

Casey's the 45^th man to lead by three after three rounds of a DP World Tour event in the last 10 years and he's bidding to become the 27^th to convert.

That's a strike rate of 59% which suggests he's a very fair price this morning but I'm happy to leave the event alone after Lawrence performed so poorly yesterday.

Casey hasn't won anywhere for more than five years, and he has the added pressure of trying to secure his future.

With the future of the LIV Tour far from certain, a victory would guarantee Casey a place on the DP World Tour for a few years and although he's not a young player that needs that certainty, it's still a factor, and it could be enough of a factor to result in a few nerves today.

Spain's Eugenio Chacarra, who's already won twice this year, is the one the market considers the most likely to benefit from a nervy day by Casey and I can't argue with that.

Chacarra won the KLM Open at the start of June and he was a very impressive winner of the Italian Open at the end of June so he won't be fazed by being in contention again today.

21:00 - September 4, 2026 - Lawrence a fair price to rack up the hat-trick

The defending champion, Thriston Lawrence, who also won the event in 2022, was matched at just 2.265/4 after he'd birdied six holes in-a-row midway through his second round at the Omega European Masters to get to -13 for the week but he finished his round with six straight pars so his halfway lead is just two.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 20:50.

Thriston Lawrence -13 3.814/5
Nacho Elvira -11 9.28/1
Jeremy Paul -11 29.028/1
Keito Nakajima -10 9.417/2
Paul Casey -9 27.026/1
Ashun Wu -9 40.039/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello -9 44.043/1
Eugenio Chacarra -8 21.020/1
Thomas Detry -8 26.025/1
Angel Ayora -8 26.025/1
-8 and 36.035/1 bar

Here's a list of where the last 12 winners were positioned at the halfway stage of this event and it's immediately apparent that 36 hole leaders don't have a terrific recent record.

2013 - Tied for the lead
2014 - Fifth and three back
2015 - Led by a stroke
2016 - Fourth and one back
2017 - Third and five back
2018 - Second and two back
2019 - 12^th and five back
2020 - No Event
2021 - 14^th and five back
2022 - Second and one back
2023 - Fifth and three back
2024 - Led by four strokes
2025 - Third and two back

In the 25 editions since 1999, 10 halfway leaders have gone on to win and two have been beaten in a playoff but on closer analysis, it hasn't been an easy place to make the running lately.

Matt Wallace went on to win a playoff after he'd led by four at the this stage two years ago but he was the first 36-hole leader to win in nine years and three of the last eight winners were trailing by as many as five strokes at this stage.

When Lawrence won here for the first time, in 2022, he trailed by a stroke, and he was two adrift last year, but he's held a two-stroke lead at this stage of a 72-hole event elsewhere a couple of times previously.

He finished third at the Eye of Africa PGA Championship on the Sunshine Tour after he'd led by two after 36 holes, back in 2020, and he went on to win the South African Open by a stroke in 2022, after he'd led by two at halfway.

Looking back at the DP World Tour over the last 10 years, 25% of two-stroke leaders have gone on to win, suggesting that Lawrence isn't a great price at less than 3/14.00 but there are several reasons to think the 3.929/10 available on the Betfair Exchange is fair and it was a price I was happy to take.

I was tempted to play Japan's Keito Nakajima before the off and I can see why he's vying for second favouritism at the halfway stage, but I was unwilling to back him because of his poor numbers on the greens.

The best Nakajima has ranked for Putting Average in his last 10 starts is 24^th and although he's ranked highly for Strokes Gained: Putting a couple of times, his work on the greens was a big concern so it's no surprise to see him ranking only 27^th for PA at halfway.

In contrast, in addition to ranking third for Greens In Regulation and first for Scrambling, Lawrence ranks eighth for PA and if he continues to perform like that, around a venue that he clearly loves, he's going to be tough to beat.

His two closest rivals, Nacho Elvira and Jeremy Paul, were both outsiders before the off and the prolific Lawrence looks very fairly priced at halfway.

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