BMW PGA Championship: Rai looks ready for Wentworth win at 54/1

• DP World Tour returns to Wentworth for flagship event

• Look at Crans course form for clues

• Good tournament for in-play betting with Sunday drama expected in Surrey

• Read my Procore Championship preview here

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What happened last week? Lucky Rory secures K Club victory in extra time

Having traded at odds-on in each of the two previous editions of the Irish Open, the world number two, Rory McIlroy, was on the premises at the K Club all week.

I backed him at 3/14.00 at halfway and he was still trading at that price with 18 holes to play.

Trailing the 54-hole leader, Adrien Saddier, by four, Rory needed to get a shift on in round four and he didn't help his cause when he dropped a shot at the first.

He drifted out to 9.617/2 after the bogey at one but he was soon back in the hunt with birdies at two, five and six and after another at the ninth and this slightly fortunate birdie at 13, he was trading at odds-on.

You make your own luck, right @McIlroyRory? #AmgenIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/BpN68GZxyb

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 8, 2025

After the birdie at 13 he caught an even bigger break on the par four 15^th when his errant tee shot stopped just inches shy of the water to the right of the fairway, but it looked like his lucky breaks would count for nothing when the halfway leader, Joakim Lagergren, spectacularly eagled the par five 16^th and birdied the last to post 17-under-par.

That was two clear of anyone left on the course and the diminutive Swede was matched at a low of just 1.141/7 as he sat in the clubhouse.

Having failed to birdie the par five16th, Rory came to the final hole needing an eagle three to tie Lagergren and that looked unlikely given Marcus Armitage had been the only man to chalk up a three there in round four but nine years after producing a magical finish at the K Club to win his first Irish Open title, he produced this bit of magic to take the event into extra time.

The putt. The result. The noise. The celebration.

Rory McIlroy's eagle putt at the 72nd hole will go down in history #AmgenIrishOpen pic.twitter.com/yf8bzNmNUW

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 7, 2025

Lagergren stood up well to Rory in extra time as both men traded birdies at the first two extra holes, but he found water with his approach at the third time of asking and Rory tapped in for birdie and the win after a superb lengthy putt after a safe second shot once he knew Lagergren was wet.

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Tournament History

Originally known as the British PGA Championship and first staged in 1955, the BMW PGA Championship has been the DP World Tour's flagship event since its inception in 1972.

The tournament used to be staged in May but when the US PGA Championship moved to May in 2019, the DP World Tour made the sensible decision to move the BMW PGA to September, and it worked. The quality of the field improved immediately.

Following the Dubai Desert Classic in January and the Scottish Open in July, the BMW PGA Championship is the third of five Rolex Series events to be staged this year, with the last two - the ABU Dhabi Championship and the DP World Tour Championship - being staged in two months' time.

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Venue

Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England.

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Course Details

Par 72 - 7,267 yards 
Stroke Index in 2024 - 70.68 

Designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926, the West Course has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 and the par 5 finishing hole was radically changed. At the mercy of modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a large stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Wentworth is a tight, fairly flat, tree-lined heathland course with tricky-to-read greens that were all changed before the 2017 renewal. The bentgrass/poa unua blend was replaced with pure bentgrass to get a truer and faster roll and a brand-new sub-air system was installed throughout the course to help keep the greens fast and dry.

In addition to the changes made to the greens, the bunkering throughout the course was changed to try and restore the course closer to its original Harry Colt ethos. It was felt that previous reworks had produced bunkering that was just too deep and not in keeping with the original design philosophy.

Wentworth used to stage the now defunct Volvo World Match Play at this time of year so high-class autumnal golf at Surrey's finest is nothing new.

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Weather

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:30 on Thursday.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Billy Horschel -20 (playoff) 36.035/1
2023 - Ryan Fox -18 65.064/1
2022 - Shane Lowry -17 (54-holes) 19.018/1
2021 - Billy Horschel -19 36.035/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -19 22.021/1
2019 - Danny Willett -20 80.079/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -17 22.021/1
2017 - Alex Noren -11 22.021/1
2016 - Chris Wood -9 70.069/1
2015 - Byeong-Hun An -21 180.0179/1

What Will it Take to Win the BMW PGA Championship?

Last year's winner, Billy Horschel, ranked 27^th for Driving Distance and 40^th for Driving Accuracy and in the last 12 years we've seen winners rank as high as first and as low as 70^th for DD and as high as fourth and as low as 55^th for DA, so I really don't think we can worry about the driving metrics.

Scrambling and GIR appear to be the two stats to concentrate on.

Horschel only ranked 28^th for Greens In Regulation last year and the 2023 winner, Ryan Fox, only ranked 38^th but the player to hit more greens than anyone else placed in each of the last two years and the 2021 and 2022 winners, Horschel and Shane Lowry, both topped the Greens In Regulation rankings. As many as 11 of the last 19 winners have ranked inside the top-four for GIR.

Scrambling has been a key stat of late too. Last year's three playoff protagonists, Horschel, Rory McIlroy and Thriston Lawrence, all ranked inside the top 10 for Scrambling, the 2023 winner, Fox, ranked fifth, with Aaron Rai, who finished tied for second, ranking third. And the first three home three years ago ranking first, second and third.

Horschel ranked third when he won here for the first time four years ago and a year earlier, Tyrrell Hatton won ranking first. Danny Willett only ranked eighth in 2019 but the best three scramblers all finished inside the top-seven, Francesco Molinari scrambled better than anyone else when winning here seven years ago and the first five home in 2017 all ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling.

The last two winners have both putted very nicely. Horschel ranked first for Putting Average and for Strokes Gained: Putting and Fox ranked sixth for SG: Putting and second for PA, but you can most definitely win here without holing everything you look at.

Lowry ranked 19^th for SGP and 55^th for PA three years and Horschel only ranked 42^nd and 29^th in 2021. And prior to the changes to the greens, before the 2017 edition, several players took the title despite putting fairly poorly. Anders Hansen ranked just 46th for Putting Average when he won the second of his two titles in 2007 and Simon Khan putted even worse in 2010, when he ranked 55^th.

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Course Form Counts at Wentworth

In six previous visits to Wentworth, 20^th was the best finish Ryan Fox had mustered before he took the title two years ago, but he was an unusual winner. Most victors here have shown a liking to the venue...

Wentworth is a nuanced track and past course form counts for plenty. Lowry had finished inside the top-six places four times before he won here two years ago and he'd led the 2020 edition at halfway before finishing 13^th.

Horschel had finished fourth two years prior to his win on his only prior appearance and year after year we see the same faces in-the-mix. Most winners have previous form around Wentworth, even if it dates back a few years...

The 2020 winner, Tyrrell Hatton, had Wentworth figures reading 38-46-7-30-MC-MC (with the seventh place dating back to 2016), and the 2019 champ, Willett, had finished fifth here on debut nine years earlier and he'd finished third in 2016.

Having finished inside the top-nine places in four of his five previous visits, Francesco Molinari won here six years ago, a year after finishing second to Alex Noren, who finished third behind Molinari when defending, with the 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, finishing second! And back in 2017, three of the top-five had finished at least eighth previously.

Luke Donald (back-to-back in 2011 and 2012) was the last multiple event winner before Horschel doubled up last year, but multiple winners are fairly common. Peter Alliss, Colin Montgomerie, and Bernard Langer have all won the event three times (Monty did in consecutive years between 1998 and 2000) and Nick Faldo has won it four times.

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A Trio of Correlating Courses to Consider

It's impossible to ignore how many players have played well here and at Crans, the venue of the European Masters two weeks ago.

The likes of Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Danny Willett, and Alex Noren have all won both events at least once and there are numerous examples of players winning one and finishing second in the other or finishing second in both.

That list includes this year's Crans winner, Lawrence - who traded at as low as 1.3130/100 on the Betfair Exchange to win here last year - Rory, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, and Trevor Immelmann. And Crans specialist, Thomas Bjorn, really should have won this event back in 2015 when he led by five after three rounds.

In the 2023 edition, the 2023 European Open winner, Ludvig Aberg, and the 2019 champ, Sebastian Soderberg, were tied for the lead at halfway.

The 2023 and this year's editions of the Irish Open at the K Club may prove to be a great pointer again too.

Fox had finished tied third alongside Wentworth specialist, Shane Lowry, before he won here two years ago and it will be interesting to see if a K Club contender wins here this year.

The K Club is a tree-lined parkland course like Wentworth and form at the two venues has crossed over numerous times.

Prior to the 2023 edition of the Irish Open at the K Club, which was won by Vincent Norrman, the previous six players to win at the K Club - Rory, Kennie Ferrie, Phillip Price, Michael Campbell, Darren Clarke, and Lee Westwood - all had at least a top four finish at Wentworth.

Norrman only finished 18^th on debut here in 2023 (didn't play here last year) but that was a fair effort given he'd won the week before.

And finally, another tree-lined track that correlates nicely is Sedgefield Country Club, that hosts the Wyndham Championship on the PGA Tour.

Wentworth winners, Luke Donald, Billy Horschel, and Byeong-Hun An, have all finished second in the Wyndham recently, LIV Golf rebels, Patrick Reed, Branden Grace, and Tyrrell Hatton, all have form at the two tracks and Tom Kim, who won the Wyndham in 2022 performed admirably on debut here two years ago until the weather turned on Sunday.

Adam Scott, who really should have won the Wyndham four years ago, also contended at Wentworth in 2023, finishing tied for seventh, and Arron Rai, who has finished second and fourth in the last two editions, won the Wyndham last year.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

It's been a real mixed bag, price wise. The last eight winners have all gone off at double-figure prices and four of the last eight were very well fancied but historically, it's been a cracking event for outsiders.

A second win for Denmark's Anders Hansen (2007) and victories for Simon Khan (2010) and Matteo Manassero (2013) were unexpected and very few saw Byeong-Hun An's victory coming a decade ago. And there was a four-year stretch at the turn of the century when the winners were almost impossible to predict. After Monty had won his three in-a-row, Andrew Oldcorn, Anders Hansen, Ignacio Garrido and Scott Drummond all left punters scratching their heads.

The English have a really good record in this event. A pair of Englishmen finished tied for second two years ago and with Luke Donald winning back-to-back in 2011 and 2012, seven different Englishman have won eight of the last 19 renewals.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Billy Horschel - tied second, trailing by three 5.85/1
2023 - Ryan Fox - tied fourth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2022 - Shane Lowry - tied sixth, trailing by two 11.010/1
2021 - Billy Horschel - tied third, trailing by two 7.87/1
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - led by three 1.9620/21
2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 7.06/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari - tied for the lead 3.259/4
2017 - Alex Noren T23 - trailing by seven 220.0219/1
2016 - Chris Wood T5 - trailing by three 16.531/2
2015 - Byeong-Hun An - tied for the lead 3.711/4

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In-Play Tactics

As many as four of the last 10 winners have been leading with a round to go but three of the four were tied for the lead and they were the least likely of the tied leaders to win through 54 holes.

Back in 2015, Byeong-Hun An was tied with Francesco Molinari, who was tied with Rory before the final round in 2018 and six years ago, Danny Willett entered the final round tied at the top with Jon Rahm.

Hatton was the favourite before round four - five years ago but the favourite before the final round has been beaten in 10 of the last 11 years and we've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years...

For the majority of tournaments, I stress the importance of being at the top of the leaderboard throughout, getting a fast start and being up with the leaders, but not here.

I've gone as far back as 1990 and other than Hatton in 2020, who was tied for the lead, the only leader or co-leader after round one to go on to take the title is Luke Donald. He went wire-to-wire in 2011, before beating Lee Westwood in a play-off. 

Paul Casey won doggedly after hitting the front at halfway in 2009, as did David Howell in 2006, and between 2000 and 2002, all three 36-hole winners went on to convert but the leaders are always vulnerable here and I'll definitely be looking closely at those off the pace with a round to go again.

Alex Noren was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning eight years ago, as he sat outside the top-20 with a round to go, and that's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go!

Simon Khan sat tied for 13^th and seven back before his win in 2010 and Rory McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014 (Bjorn was matched in-running at just 1.21/5).

Between 1990 and 2006, 12 of the 16 winners led or co-led with a round to go and Tony Johnstone, in 1992, was the only winner not to be inside the front three places through 54 holes. He sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, but it's been a completely different kettle of fish since David Howell's victory in 2006.

In addition to the three aforementioned winners from seven adrift, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back.

It's not going to happen every year but being patient in-running and waiting for Sunday to play the chasers at big prices has been a great way to play the tournament of late.

In addition to all those big off-the-pace winners, we've had a number of players come close to snatching an unlikely win and we nearly witnessed another huge comeback three years ago when Jon Rahm finished second, beaten by a stroke. 

Having been a 300.0299/1 chance before the third and final round, Rahm was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running as he played his first eight holes of round three in just one-under-par but after a birdie at the tough ninth, he flew home in 29, despite bogeying the 15^th, to post a ten-under-par 62. 

In addition to Rahm, the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of the third-round leader, Scott Hend, in 2016. 

Like Rahm, he too was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running and like Rahm, he dropped a shot late on when he bogeyed the 16th hole. Both men lost by a stroke and both were matched at single-figure prices. Karlberg was matched at just 7.87/1 and Rahm hit a low of 5.24/1. 

Unless we get a weather delay like we did in 2022, the BMW PGA Championship is over four rounds and four days, just like any other ordinary stroke play event on the DP World or PGA Tour, but it somehow feels like a longer tournament than most and the winning line feels like it's a long way off. 

In the last 11 years, we've seen five players trade at odds-on and lose before the fourth round has even begun and two of them went odds-on during round two!

Just like Thomas Bjorn in 2014 and Francesco Molinari in 2015, Jon Rahm was matched at odds-on during round three in 2019 (1.422/5) and Rory McIlroy hit the front as early as Friday morning in 2018, when he went as low as 1.548/15. And he was the second player in three years to go odds-on during round two and fail to get home! Danny Willet hit 1.855/6 on Friday in 2016.

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Late drama is the norm here

The 54-hole leader, Matteo Manassero and the two beaten playoff protagonists, all hit odds-on in round four last year, hitting lows of 1.9420/21, 1.51/2 and 1.282/7, Tyrrell Hatton hit a low of just 1.292/7 during round four in 2023 and two players traded at odds-on on Sunday in 2021 before losing. Kiradech Aphibarnrat was matched at 1.618/13 and Laurie Canter 1.511/2.

The change from May to September might, in the fullness of time, see a change to the trends as the course shouldn't firm up as much in autumn as it did in the spring but backing longshots from off the pace here through 54 holes and laying odds-on shots over the weekend often pays dividends.

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Rai looks ready for Wentworth win

Arron Rai missed the cut last time out at the European Masters two weeks ago but that's the norm for the 30-year-old Englishman.

That was his third visit to Crans and he's yet to make it through to the weekend, but he did shoot 65 on Friday to move up from 136^th after an opening 73 to a tie for 68^th so it was his best effort in three attempts.

Rai finished a respectable 22^nd at the St Jude Championship and 33^rd in the British Masters in his two previous outings so he hasn't been in sparkling form over the last month but his fifth-place finish at Sedgefield when defending in the first week of August was a very encouraging performance.

With Wentworth figures reading 14-MC-4-2 over the last four years, Rai clearly enjoys the venue, and I was very surprised to be able to back him at as big as 55.054/1 given he's no bigger than 35/136.00 on the High Street.

It would be no surprise to see one of the market leaders win this week but Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood are both looking to win back-to-back, something that's never easy to do, and although he clearly loves the venue, it's almost a year since Jon Rahm last won (Liv Golf Chicago), and I'm happy to go with just Rai before the off.

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