Procore Championship: Young a fair price for Silverado success at 25/1

• Scrambling the key stat at Siverado

• Great event for long shots

• Read my BMW PGA Championship preview here

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Tournament History

After a fortnight off following Tommy Fleetwood's victory at the Tour Championship, the PGA Tour resumes on Thursday with the Procure Championship in California.  

Formerly known as the Fortinet Championship, the Safeway Open, and before that, the Frys.com Open, the Procure Championship is a fairly new event and it's only been in existence since 2007.

The Procore Championship is the first of seven Fall Series events, providing an opportunity for those that that failed to make it to the FedEx Cup playoffs, because they finished outside the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings, to finish inside the top 100 by the end of the year to keep their cards for the 2026 season.

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Venue

The North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa Valley, California.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7123 yards
Stroke Index in 2024 - 71.24

After three years at Grey Hawk in Arizona and four at Cordevalle in San Martin, California, the Procure Championship moved to the North Course at the Silverado Resort in Napa Valley, California 11 years ago. 

The Robert Trent Jones Jr designed North Course opened in 1957, but it has been substantially reworked in recent years by Troon Golf and one of the venues co-owners, Johnny Miller. 

In addition to the last 11 editions of this event, Silverado hosted the Kaiser International between 1968 and 1976 and the Anheuser-Busch Golf Classic from 1977 to 1980 and some of the game's legends won here during those 13 years.

Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson and Ben Crenshaw all tasted victory at Silverado and some big names also won here during the 15 years it saw Champions Tour golf when it hosted the Transamerica from 1989 to 2002, with the likes of Bernard Langer, Lee Trevino, Tom Kite and Dave Stockton all winning here. 

The fairways are largely tree-lined and reasonably tight. The rough has been set to a height of 2 ½ inches for each of the last two editions and the Poa-annua greens have run ran at 11.5 on the Stimpmeter - a fairly modest pace by PGA standards.

The routing of the course was altered two years ago. Holes 14-17 used to be holes 8-11, while the old stretch from 12-17 are now holes 8-13.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 21:00 on Thursday in the UK.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2024 - Patton Kizzire -20 310.0309/1
2023 - Sahith Theegala -21 18.017/1
2022 - Max Homa -16 18.017/1
2021 - Max Homa -19 80.079/1
2020 - Stewart Cink -21 570.0569/1
2019 - Cameron Champ -17 200.0199/1
2018 - Kevin Tway -14 110.0109/1 (playoff)
2017 - Brendon Steele -15 36.035/1
2016 - Brendon Steele -18 75.074/1
2015 - Emiliano Grillo -15 75.074/1 

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What Will it Take to Win the Procure Championship?

We have 11 years of course form to survey, so here's the top-three and ties at the last 11 editions with the following stats - Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, Scrambling, Putting Average and Strokes Gained Putting.

2024
1 Patton Kizzire -20 DD 42 DA 9 GIR 18 SC 1 PA 18 SGP 1
2 David Lipsky -15 -19 DD 55 DA 21 GIR 31 SC 49 PA 29 SGP 5
3 Patrick Fishburn -17 DD 17 DA 20 GIR 3 SC 41 PA 1 SGP 20

2023
1 Sahith Theegala -21 DD 23 DA 47 GIR 29 SC 7 PA 1 SGP 2
2 SH Kim -19 DD 18 DA 12 GIR 28 SC 1 PA 12 SGP 13
3 Cam Davis -17 DD 11 DA 8 GIR 43 SC 2 PA 4 SGP 7

2022
1 Max Homa -16 DD 34 DA 7 GIR 17 SC 3 PA 13 SGP 15
2 Danny Willett -15 DD 43 DA 47 GIR 10 SC 2 PA 11 SGP 7
3 Taylor Montgomery -13 DD 38 DA 64 GIR 67 SC 13 PA 1 SGP 1

2021
1 Max Homa -19 DD 22 DA 7 GIR 19 SC 42 PA 2 SGP 14
2 Maverick McNealy -18 DD 13 DA 29 GIR 10 SC 61 PA 1 SGP 13
3 Mito Pereira -16 DD 11 DA 1 GIR 3 SC 31 PA 33 SGP 42

2020
1 Stewart Cink -21 DD 11 DA 24 GIR 1 SC 2 PA 52 SGP 13
2 Harry Higgs -19 DD 21 DA 48 GIR 59 SC 17 PA 5 SGP 17
T3 Chez Reavie -18 DD 61 DA 1 GIR 11 SC 34 PA 21 SGP 42
T3 Doc Redman -18 DD 54 DA 5 GIR 40 SC 21 PA 8 SGP 24
T3 Kevin Streelman -18 DD 49 DA 20 GIR 11 SC 49 PA 3 SGP 12
T3 Brian Stuard -18 DD 55 DA 13 GIR 15 SC 5 PA 18 SGP 16

2019
1 Cameron Champ -17 DD 1 DA 21 GIR 10 SC 1 PA 38 SGP 1
2 Adam Hadwin -16 DD 46 DA 29 GIR 1 SC 37 PA 12 SGP 4
3 Marc Leishman -14 DD 8 DA 18 GIR 20 SC 5 PA 47 SGP 2

2018
1 Kevin Tway -15 DD 14 DA 40 GIR 18 SC 1 PA 22 SGP 18
T2 Ryan Moore -15 DD 59 DA 1 GIR 2 SC 24 PA 18 SGP 6
T2 Brandt Snedeker -15 DD 33 DA 30 GIR 40 SC 42 PA 1 SGP 2

2017
1 Brendan Steele -15 DD 1 DA 3 GIR 4 SC 7 PA 60 SGP 29
2 Tony Finau -13 DD 11 DA 39 GIR 52 SC 10 PA 16 SGP 16
T3 Chesson Hadley -12 DD 7 DA 24 GIR 47 SC 48 PA 1 SGP 9
T3 Phil Mickelson -12 DD 45 DA 74 GIR 32 SC 44 PA 3 SGP 19

2016
1 Brendan Steele -18 DD 23 DA 5 GIR 21 SC 4 PA 8 SGP 6
2 Patton Kizzire -17 DD 35 DA 67 GIR 21 SC 21 PA 4 SGP 1
T3 Paul Casey -16 DD 10 DA 34 GIR 35 SC 2 PA 6 SGP 29
T3 Michael Kim -16 DD 50 DA 34 GIR 16 SC 12 PA 5 SGP 18
T3 Scott Piercy -16 DD 12 DA 29 GIR 7 SC 48 PA 8 SGP 4
T3 Johnson Wagner -16 DD 42 DA 29 GIR 9 SC 9 PA 9 SGP 8.

2015
1 Emiliano Grillo -15 DD 37 DA 8 GIR 16 SC 5 PA 41 SGP 61
2 Kevin Na -15 DD 30 DA 5 GIR 10 SC 40 PA 12 SGP 51
T3 Jason Bohn -14 DD 64 DA 5 GIR 1 SC 71 PA 4 SGP 39
T3 Justin Thomas -14 DD 25 DA 67 GIR 2 SC 23 PA 11 SGP 19
T3 Tyrone Van Aswegen -14 DD 44 DA 31 GIR 10 SC 21 PA 12 SGP 8

2014
1 Sang-Moon Bae -15 DD 26 DA 45 GIR 6 SC 3 PA 18 SGP 44
2 Steven Bowditch -13 DD 17 DA 67 GIR 71 SC 2 PA 12 SGP 9
T3 Retief Goosen -12 DD 29 DA 49 GIR 50 SC 15 PA 14 SGP 1
T3 Martin Laird -12 DD 34 DA 16 GIR 9 SC 1 PA 39 SGP 8
T3 Hunter Mahan -12 DD 21 DA 37 GIR 6 SC 52 PA 6 SGP 16
T3 Hideki Matsuyama -12 DD 25 DA 8 GIR 3 SC 12 PA 22 SGP 45
T3 Bryce Molder -12 DD 64 DA 45 GIR 48 SC 15 PA 2 SGP 12

The driving metrics don't tell us much, but I'd suggest being straight and short is slightly better than long and inaccurate and apart from 2021, when putting was the most important metric, the really key stat has been Scrambling.

The first seven course winners ranked inside the top seven for Scrambling, Stewart Cink ranked second for Scrambling five years ago, the two winners before him both managed to get up-and-down more often than anyone else, and so too did last year's victor, Patton Kizzire.

The front three only ranked 42^nd, 61^st and 31^st for Scrambling in 2021 but the first and second ranked third and second three years ago and the front three ranked seventh, first and second two years ago so 2021 looks like quite an outlier.

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Is There an Angle In?

Putting on Poa is always a bit tricky, and the locals are often at an advantage on the west coast.

Originally from Alabama, Kizzire lives in Georgia but the 2023 winner, Sahith Theegala, was born in California, Max Homa, who won the two previous editions, and the 2021 runner-up, Maverick McNealy, the 2019 winner, Cameron Champ, and the two-time winner, Brendan Steele, are all Californians and we've also seen California's Phil Mickelson contend too, so that's something to consider and from a course correlation angle, form at TPC San Antonio, home of the Texas Open, and Waialae, home of the Sony Open, look worthy of consideration.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Despite looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, the 2023 winner, Sahith Theegala, was gambled into 18.017/1 and Max Homa went off favourite when defending the title three years ago.

Jimmy Walker was fairly well-fancied 12 years ago (generally a 36.035/1 shot) and Brendon Steele went off at 36.035/1 when successfully defending the title eight years ago, but outsiders have a very fair record.

Kizzire went off at odds in excess of 300/1301.00 last year, Homa was an 80.079/1 chance four years ago and the three winners before him went off at triple-figure prices.

Sang-Moon Bae 11 years ago and the 2011 winner, Bryce Molder, also went off at odds in excess of 100/1101.00 so this is definitely somewhere you can take a chance on an outsider or two.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2024 - Patton Kizzire led by four strokes 1.910/11
2023 - Sahith Theegala led by two strokes 2.588/5
2022 - Max Homa - T2 - trailing by one 3.3512/5
2021 - Max Homa - T3 - trailing by two 10.09/1
2020 - Stewart Cink T7 - trailing by two 42.041/1
2019 - Cameron Champ led by three strokes 2.6413/8
2018 - Kevin Tway second - trailing by three strokes 7.26/1
2017 - Brendan Steele T3 - trailing by three 6.411/2
2016 - Brendan Steele T6 - trailing by four 32.031/1
2015 - Emiliano Grillo T4 - trailing by two 14.013/1

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In-Play Tactics

The last two editions have been won by the clear 54-hole leader but taking on the frontrunner or runners on Sunday has proved a profitable exercise over the years here and this is a venue at which winning from off the pace is perfectly possible.

The last three winners have been there or thereabouts all week long but we still witnessed the most remarkable of finishes two years ago.

Pre-event 270.0269/1 chance, Danny Willett, took a one-stroke lead into the 72^nd hole and after both he and the eventual winner, Max Homa had played three strokes on the par five 18^th hole, victory looked assured for Englishman.

Over £14k was matched on Willett at 1.011/100 and someone managed to get £2 matched on Homa at 1000.0999/1.

Left of the green and 32 feet from the pin after a poor bunker shot with his third, Homa looked well and truly cooked. The defending champ trailed by a stroke and Willett had less than four feet for his birdie four but then this happened...

CHAOS on the 72nd hole to start the season

A hole-out and a 3-putt on the final hole made for a WILD finish @FortinetChamp. pic.twitter.com/tiSwSoEno4

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) September 19, 2022

That was far and away the most incredible finish here and one of the most amazing finales ever witnessed on the PGA Tour but Willett wasn't the first to get beat after trading at long odds-on we've seen winners here come from much further back too...

Brandt Snedeker began the final round with a three-stroke lead six years ago and after birdies at five and seven, he opened up a five-stroke advantage. He was matched at a low of just 1.081/12 but he soon lost his grip on the title and he was eventually beaten in extra time.

Cameron Champ was never more than three strokes back or outside the top-five five years ago and the 2018 winner, Kevin Tway, was five, four and three strokes adrift after rounds one, two and three, so he was never too far away either, but Ryan Moore trailed by seven with a round to go before getting into the playoff with Tway and Snedeker in 2018.

Brendan Steele was always up there in 2017 but Chesson Hadley, who began the final round just a stroke behind the 54-hole leader, Tyler Duncan, was tied for 61^st after round one, before a course-record 61 in round two moved him up to third at halfway.

Sang-Moon Bae was always on the premises ten years ago and he was four clear after 54 holes but the runner-up, Stephen Bowditch, was tied for 80^th after round one and he was still six adrift and tied for 36^th at halfway.

Emiliano Grillo was six back and tied for 19^th at halfway when he won nine years ago and the first nine home were all outside the top-five through 36 holes.

Homa was matched at a high of 240.0239/1, after a poor second round saw him trail by seven in a tie for 24^th at halfway in 2021, the 2020 winner, Stewart Cink, trailed by eight at halfway and finally, Steele was nine strokes adrift at halfway and still four back with a round to go when he won here for the first time eight years ago. 

If the leaderboard looks tight going into Sunday's final round, a late night's trading may reap rewards but it's worth noting that the finish is much easier after the rerouting of the course and that the last two winners have won with with no late dramas.

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Young a fair price for Silverado success 

This is usually a fairly weak affair but with no PGA Tour event next week, 10 of Keegan Bradley's USA Ryder Cup team are in the line up ahead of the biannual bash at Bethpage Black in two weeks' time.

Scottie Scheffler is the warm favourite at around 9/43.25 but the one I like is the recent Wyndham Championship winner, Cameron Young, who will make his Ryder Cup debut in a fortnight's time at the venue at which he equalled the course record when he won the New York State Open as an amateur eight years ago.

Although now residing in Florida, Young was born in New York, so he'll be chomping at the bit to get going in two weeks' time and he's bound to be in good spirits here.

Following his victory at the Wyndham, his first on the PGA Tour, the 28-year-old played nicely in the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing fifth at the St Jude Championship, 11^th in the BMW Championship and fourth behind Fleetwood at the Tour Championship.

With his Ryder Cup debut upcoming, he will have kept himself ticking over since East Lake and he's a very fair price to contend her at 25/126.00 given his current wellbeing.

He missed the cut here on his only previous outing but that was way back in 2021 and he was out of form at the time.

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