The Punter's In-Play Blog: Manassero fairly price with 18 to play at Wentworth

• Odds-against Manassero leads by three

• Is Rory poised for redemption after Irish Open loss?

• Pre-event fancy, Lawrence, still in the shake up

10:00 - September 22, 2024

A rain-softened Wentworth yielded plenty of low scores on Moving Day yesterday and with a round to go at the BMW PGA Championship, the 2013 champion, Matteo Manassero, leads the 2014 winner, Rory McIlroy, and the 2021 champ, Billy Horschel, by three.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:55.

Matteo Manassero -18 2.166/5
Rory McIlroy -15 3.814/5
Billy Horschel -15 5.85/1
Matthew Baldwin -14 40.039/1
Thriston Lawrence -13 28.027/1
Antoine Rozner -13 65.064/1
Aaron Rai -12 42.041/1
Harry Hall -11 310.0309/1
Robert MacIntyre -10 330.0329/1
-10 and 1000.0999/1 bar

Having been a combined 22-under-par in the penultimate group yesterday, Manassero, McIlroy and Horschel will tee-off together again in today's final three-ball and it's very difficult to see the winner coming from outside that trio.

The penultimate group were a combined 22 under par on Moving Day #BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/m68bwBkpMx

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 21, 2024

With a three-stroke lead, Manassero is obviously the most likely to take the title and he looks a fair price at odds-against.

Wentworth is a tough place to make the running and the favourite before the final round has been beaten in nine of the last ten years, but three shots is decent lead, and the stats suggest the Italian should be shorter than he is and possibly even odds-on.

Manassero, who Matt Cooper tipped before the off at 30/131.00, has led or co-led a 72-hole event on either the DP Word Tour or the Challenge Tour through three rounds seven times previously and he went on to win on four occasions.

He's the fifth man this century to lead the BMW PGA Championship by three with a round to go and the previous four all converted.

And since 1996, we've seen 105 players lead a 72-hole DP World Tour event by three strokes and 71 of them went on to win. That's a strike rate of 68% so odds of 2.166/5 can't be described as too short.

We've witnessed some quite remarkable off the pace winners at Wentworth over the years though. We've seen the victor come from three, four and five strokes in the last 20 years and three of the last 13 winners have trailed by seven strokes with a round to go!

With that in mind, I certainly haven't yet given up on my pre-event fancy, Thriston Lawrence, who trails by five, but it's very difficult to see all three frontrunners failing given their quality.

Having backed Rory yesterday at 4.3100/30, I'm happy to sit on my hands now and see what the day brings. He was one of the three to win here having trailed by seven so three strokes is far from an unsurmountable deficit and he deserves a break after last week's defeat in the Irish Open, where Rasmus Hojgaard produced a remarkable finish to beat him.

09:10 - September 21, 2024

Following a weather delay on Friday, the second round of the BMW PGA Championship has been completed this morning and everyone's chasing the first-round leader, Matthew Baldwin, who was matched at 1000.0999/1 before the off.

With more poor weather predicted, the third-round tee times have been brought forward and the leaders tee-off at 11:05.

Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 09:00.

Matthew Baldwin -13 7.613/2
Niklas Norgaard -118.27/1
Antoine Rozner -10 22.021/1
Rory McIlroy -9 4.216/5
Matteo Manassero -9 11.521/2
Billy Horschel -8 13.5
Tommy Fleetwood -7 15.014/1
Robert MacIntyre -7 29.028/1
-7 and 40.039/1 bar

After rounds of 65 and 66, Baldwin leads by two over the recent British Masters winner, Niklas Norgaard, and this is the first time the 38-year-old has led at the halfway stage of a DP World Tour event.

Baldwin has led or been tied for the lead at halfway three times on the Challenge Tour without winning but he was a very impressive winner of the SDC Championship in March last year when he went on to win by seven, having led by four with a round to go. He'd sat third and four adrift at halfway.

That's Baldwin's sole success on the DP World Tour and it's hard to envisage him kicking on and winning a title of this magnitude. Especially when we consider that since 1990, only two first round leaders or co-leaders have gone on to win. Luke Donald in 2011 and Tyrrell Hatton in 2020.

Hatton had dropped to third at halfway four years ago and since Donald won wire-to-wire, Danny Willett, who was tied for the lead at halfway in 2019, is the only 36-hole leader or co-leader to go on to win. That's another negative for the frontrunner and it demonstrates just how hard it is to make the running at Wentworth.

The last two winners, Ryan Fox and Billy Horschel, both trailed by three at this stage but in the last eight years we've seen winners trailing by five, six and even eight strokes at halfway so there's a very long way to go yet and we can scan a long way down the leaderboard.

I was tempted by Si Woo Kim at 60.059/1 and despite his poor finish yesterday (finished 6-6), I haven't given up on my pre-event pick, Thriston Lawrence, who's alongside the Korean on -6 but the only bet I've had in-running this morning is on the favourite - Rory McIlroy.

I suspect the leaders will come back to the pack today and if he can tidy up his iron play a bit, Rory looks a fair price at more than 3/14.00.

I felt he was unfortunate not to win in his homeland last week and a determined weekend performance could be on the cards.

22:30 - September 19, 2024

The first round of the DP World Tour's flagship event - the BMW PGA Championship- has been completed and the tournament is as tough to entangle now as it was before the off.

Having been matched in running at as low as 3.259/4, the pre-event favourite, Rory McIlroy, heads the market at 4/15.00, despite bogeying his 18^th hole in round one.

It was an impressive enough knock after last week's disappointment in his homeland and his cause wasn't helped when he lost the head off his club on the 12^th, although he still hit a great shot!

"I've never seen that in person" @ryanfoxgolfer

A look back at Rory McIlroy's impressive club head snap #BMWPGA | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/l6CNDk5fA9

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 19, 2024

Rory looks a perfectly fair price at 4/15.00 but with seven players trading at 16/117.00 and below, the tournament looks just as open as it did before the off.

There a was slight draw bias of 0.65 of a stroke in favour of today's afternoon starters and it was one of the afternoon wave - Matthew Baldwin - that set the early pace, after the Englishman posted a bogey-free seven-under-par 65.

One of my Find Me a 100 Winner picks - 350.0349/1 chance Grant Forrest - who was matched at a low of 17.5 in running today, was on six-under-par with only the par five 18^th to play but in contrast to Baldwin, who recorded a birdie four, Forrest made a double-bogey seven, and he now sits in a tie for 15^th, three shots behind Baldwin.

There are as many as 22 players within three strokes of the lead after round one and two of the last three winners have trailed by at least five after the opening day's play, so this is very much a watching brief for now.

Pre-event Pick:
Thriston Lawrence @ 55.054/1

In-Play Pick:
Rory McIlroy @ 4.3100/30

Find Me a 100 Winner column

*You can follow me at @SteveThePunter