The Punter's In-Play Blog: Kinhult still in front at Leopard Creek

• Burmester the biggest danger to the leader

• Kinhult a fair price with 18 to play

• Last week's massive outsider contends a week late

20:00 - December 14, 2024

Marcus Kinhult's lead has been trimmed from three strokes to two at Leopard Creek, but the stats suggest he might taking some catching in round four of the Alfred Dunhill Championship tomorrow. Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 19:50.

Marcus Kinhult -14 2.89/5
Ryan Van Velzen -12 9.28/1
Darius Van Driel -11 14.013/1
Dean Burmester -10 9.28/1
Romain Langasque -10 15.5
Angel Ayora -10 18.017/1
Joost Luiten -10 19.5
Matthew Southgate -10 26.025/1
Casey Jarvis -9 30.029/1
Wenji Ding -9 32.031/1
John Parry -9 48.047/1
Martin Couvra -9 70.069/1
Dale Whitnell -9 90.089/1
-8 and 60.059/1 bar

The last three winners were a long way back at halfway, trailing by six, seven and four strokes and we've seen a number of players make huge moves today.

Last week's 400.0399/1 Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Ryan Van Velzen, climbed from tied 22^nd to second, Darius Van Driel climbed from tied 15^th to solo third and having sat tied for 35^th at halfway, Spain's Angel Ayora is now one of five players tied for fourth and history tells us that's probably as far down the leaderboard as we can look now.

The 2020 winner, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, was trailing by three in third place but nine of the last 11 winners were leading or tied for lead after three rounds and David Lipsky, the 2018 winner, sat second, trailing by just a stroke.

We have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last winner to be as many as four adrift after 54 holes and all 22 course winners this century have been inside the top five places and within four of the lead after three rounds.

Kinhult lost a two-stroke 54-hole lead on the Challenge Tour way back in 2016 and he finished fifth at the Open de France in 2018 having led by two after three rounds but that was a long time ago.

He looked calm and collected today, and he won his only title to date, the 2019 British Masters, having been tied at the top with a round to go.

I had a small wager on Van Velzen in-running today at 16.015/1, just for sanity's sake, having backed him at such a big price last week, but he made a mess of the 18^th today and I just wonder if that's a sign of what's to come tomorrow?

Dean Burmester looks a big danger, but he can't afford to make the mistakes he made today, and all things considered, given the record of 54-hole leaders here, the Swede in front looks fairly price.

18:40 - December 13, 2024

In his first start back in South Africa since he lost a playoff to Tommy Fleetwood at the 2019 Nedbank, Sweden's Marcus Kinhult leads the Alfred Dunhill Championship by three strokes. Here's the halfway leaderboard with prices to back at 18:30.

Marcus Kinhult -11 6.611/2
Dean Burmester -8 6.86/1
Andrea Pavan -8 25.024/1
Dale Whitnell -8 50.049/1
Charl Schwartzel -7 13.012/1
Shaun Norris -7 24.023/1
Frederic Lacroix -7 26.025/1
Andy Sullivan -7 22.021/1
Alex Fitzpatrick -7 24.023/1
Casey Jarvis -7 25.024/1
Wenyi Ding -7 26.025/1
Matthew Southgate -7 50.049/1
Martin Couvra -7 70.069/1
Keenan Davise -7 120.0119/1
Romain Langasque -6 25.024/1
Adrian Otaegui -6 40.039/1
-6 and 44.043/1 bar

Having been matched at as high as 260.0259/1 before the off, Kinhult now trades at less than 6/17.00 and that looks a little short.

Since one of this week's contenders, Shaun Norris, won the Steyn City Championship in March 2022, having led by three at halfway, we've seen as many as ten players lead a DP World Tour event by three strokes after two rounds and Laurie Canter, who won the European Open in June, is the only one to convert.

And in that time, we've also seen two players lead a 54-hole event by three after 36 holes, and they both lost too.

Kinhult, who's sole success to date came at the British Masters five years ago, was tied for the lead at the halfway stage of the Nordea Masters in 2015 and he led the 2018 Open de France by two.

Those two events were a long time ago now so how much credence we can give them is debatable but for the record, he finished 33^rd at the Norda Masters and fifth in Paris.

Given there are as many as 13 players within four of his lead, he looks opposable, although this used to be a great venue for frontrunners and between 2012 and 2019, all seven winners were in front at halfway.

The course underwent comprehensive changes in 2017, and things have changed somewhat since. The 2018 and '19 winners were in front after 36 holes, but the last three victors have trailed by six, seven and four strokes.

With so many players within six and seven strokes, this event is wide open and the best bet is probably to wait until tomorrow and play the event in-running, latching on to any that make an early move.

Dean Burmester, who won the Joburg Open and the South African Open back-to-back this time last year, is one of three players tied for second and I suspect he'll be taking over at the head of the market before play starts tomorrow.

Burmester is a huge danger but so too are host of others.

I added course specialist, Charl Schwartzel, in-running today and I've also backed Adrian Otaegui at 40.039/1 but if the truth be told, I could back a dozen or more and still miss out on the winner. It looks very tricky.

I'll be back after round three to see where we are.

15:40 - December 12, 2024

Having started on the 10^th, one of my two Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Ryggs Johnston, reached six-under-par after just ten holes of his first round this morning at the Alfred Dunhill Championship, and he was matched at a low of 13.5, just a fraction higher than the first lay back target of 10.09/1.

He finished poorly after that though, playing his last three holes in two-over but with my pre-event pick, Jorge Campillo, starting nicely in the trickier conditions in the afternoon, the American's scruffy finish was soon forgotten.

With all the market leaders floundering in the heat, once Campillo had navigated the tough eighth and ninth with a pair of pars, and birdied the 10^th to get to -4, I was hopefully that he could be in a great position heading into round two.

He was matched in-running at 12.011/1 and that didn't look too short. With the morning starters enjoying a clear advantage on day one, due to the stifling afternoon heat, if he could post a decent score today before the prospect of the cooler early morning conditions tomorrow, he'd be in a great place and with three par fives to come, I was hopeful to say the least, but it's the hope that kills you.

He failed to birdie the par five 13^th, found water with his approach on 14 and he drove out of bounds on the 15^th!

He parred his way in after that to post an extremely disappointing one-under-par 71 and just to rub salt into the wounds, I got to witness the first man I tried to back this week, Brandon Stone, finish in style.

Stone had been on -2 after ten holes, compared to Campillo's -4, but he birdied three of his last seven holes to get to -5 instead of imploding and with an early start tomorrow, he looks a big danger now.

It's frustrating given I really liked his chances, but I wanted to back him at 44.043/1 or above and once he started to get tipped up, that was never going to happen.

Stone ended up going off at 30.029/1, which was far too short for my liking, but with most of the market leaders struggling, after his decent start today, he's a fair price at around 14.013/1.

I've had a small saver on him and that will do me for now.

Andy Sullivan is the early leader after his eight-under-par 64 this morning, but there are plenty of candidates for round of the day.

Afternoon starter, Marcus Kinhult, trails by just one and both Casey Jarvis and Nacho Elvira had remarkable starts to their week.

Having started at the 10^th, Jarvis is just one off the lead despite playing his first two holes in three-over par and Nacho Elvira has just posted a four-under-par 68 despite making a triple-bogey seven at the par three seventh hole and a double-bogey six at the 11^th!

They're all candidates but Nathan Kimsey's blemish-free five-under-par 67 in his first start since he withdrew from the Ras Al Khaimah in January probably gets the nod.

Sullivan now heads the market at a shade over 6/17.00 but that looks very short.

Branden Grace, ten years ago, is the only first round leader to kick on and win here this century and the Englishman has led after the opening round three times over the last two years, without any success.

Having been tied at the top after round one, he finished 32^nd at the BMW PGA Championship in 2022, 56^th in the ISPS Handa Championship last year and 66^th in the Dubai Desert Classic back in January.

Pre-Event Pick:
Jorge Campillo @ 48.047/1

In-Play Picks:
Branden Stone @ 14.013/1
Charl Schwartzel @ 14.013/1
Adrian Otaegui @ 40.039/1

Find Me a 100 Winner column

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