Alfred Dunhill Championship: Campillo chanced at 47/1

• GIR the key stat at Leopard Creek

• Valderrama form counts for plenty

• Oppressive heat could be a factor

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Tournament History

First staged in January 2000 at Houghton Golf Club, the Alfred Dunhill Championship moved to its current venue, Leopard Creek, 20 years ago.

Like last week's Nedbank Golf Challenge, the Alfred Dunhill Championship is co-sanctioned between the DP World Tour and the Sunshine Tour.

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Venue

Leopard Creek Country Club, Malelane, South Africa.

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Course Details

Par 72, 7112 yards
Stroke index in 2023 - 72.59

Set on the edge of the Kruger National Park, the spectacular Gary Player designed Leopard Creek opened in 1996. The signature hole is the par five 13th, which has a green that overlooks Crocodile River, but that's far from the only highlight - the course is visually stunning from start to finish.

The camera operators frequently catch sight of leopard, impala, zebra, crocodile and many other species and Leopard Creek is an interesting venue. Regardless of the result, the Alfred Dunhill Championship is an event I always enjoy watching.

There was no event here in 2018 as the course underwent a complete overhaul. The fairways and rough used to be Kikuyu but that's all gone now - replaced by a cynodon warm-season Bermuda grass and the greens were changed from Creeping Bent to a genetically engineered ultradwarf Bermuda, called Champion G-12 - the same strain planted at Quail Hollow prior to the 2017 US PGA Championship in North Carolina.

The fairways, which are undulating and lined with natural bush and trees, now run faster and firmer, bringing bunkers back in to play.

Leopard Creek has now been used for 19 previous editions of this event and Darren Fichardt, Nicholas Lawrence, Hennie Otto and Andrew McLardy all won the Sunshine Tour's Tour Championship here soon after the turn of the century but on the evidence of the last five renewals, Leopard Creek is a different course now.

Charl Schwartzel once won here with a winning total of 24-under-par (in 2012) and the average winning score of the six winners prior to the renovation, was more than 19-under-par but with absolutely nowhere to hide, the course averaged 74.34 for the week in 2019 and Pablo Larrazabal's winning score was -8.

David Lipsky managed to get to 14-under-par in the first edition after the changes but he put in a truly incredible putting performance. He had 12 one-putts on Sunday alone and he was one of only four men to beat Larrazabal's eight-under-par total.

Bezuidenhout managed to get to -14 in 2020 but he was four strokes clear of the rest and getting to double-digits under-par here isn't as easy as it once was.

The last two winners have got to -18 but last year's edition was played in wet weather so the course was soft.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, beginning at 10:00 on Thursday in the UK.

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Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

2023 - Louis Oosthuizen -18 20.019/1
2022 - Ockie Strydom -18 180.0179/1
2021 - Event cancelled
2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -14 20.019/1
2019 - Pablo Larrazabal -8 60.059/1
2018 - David Lipsky -14 270.0269/1
2017 - Event cancelled
2016 - Brandon Stone -21 30.029/1
2015 - Charl Schwartzel -15 6.611/2
2015- Branden Grace -20 25.024/1

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What Will it Take to Win the Alfred Dunhill?

With the course changing so much, this is a very difficult event to evaluate statistically, and it certainly doesn't help that no stats were produced for the first three home last year.

The first winner following the course changes, David Lipsky, ranked 33^rd for Driving Distance and 64^th for Driving Accuracy and Pablo Larrazabal wasn't too straight either. He ranked 43^rd for DA and 19^th for DD. In contrast, the 2020 winner, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, ranked 36^th for Distance and 10^th for Accuracy and Strydom almost hit the pre-change averages for both metrics, ranking 18^th for DD and 20^th for DA.

The nine winners before the course alterations had an average Driving Distance ranking of 21.77 and an average Driving Accuracy ranking of exactly 20 so we can probably conclude that neither driving metric is critical.

Prior to the changes, Greens In Regulation was always a key stat. When Spain's Pablo Martin won back-to-back editions in 2009 and 2010, he only ranked 33rd and 41st for Greens In Regulation but he was the only winner in the nine renewals before the alterations to rank outside the top-11 for that stat.

Lipsky only ranked 53^rd for GIR in 2018 but I'm inclined to think that will transpire to be an anomaly. Larrazabal ranked third in 2019, Bez ranked second in 2020 and the top-six in 2022 ranked fifth, seventh, first, third, 11^th and 45^th. It's clearly a key stat.

Prior to 2018, the most crucial stat had been Scrambling. Schwartzel only ranked 29^th in 2015 and in 2014, Branden Grace had only ranked 19^th but Brandon Stone ranked sixth in 2016 and Grace was the first winner in seven years to rank outside the top-three for Scrambling.

It hasn't been quite as important since the changes. Lipsky ranked 16^th, Larrazabal only 33^rd and Bezuidenhout ranked seventh three years ago. The top-six in '22 ranked only 30^th, 11^th, 40^th, 49^th, 38^th and sixth for Scrambling.

Either side of the course changes, putting has always been an important factor. Stone's putting figures weren't spectacular in 2016. He had a Putting Average ranking of 19^th and he ranked 12^th for Putts Per GIR but the previous eight winners all had a Putting Average ranking of 11th or better and they all ranked inside the top-12 for Putts Per GIR.

Lipsky ranked fourth for PA in 2018, Larrazabal ranked third in 2019 and although he only ranked 19^th for Putting Average, Bez holed a number of lengthy putts on Sunday in 2020 and he ranked second for Strokes Gained Putting.

The first and second ranked sixth and seventh for PA in '22 so a good week with the flat-stick looks imperative.

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Is There an Angle In?

The course hasn't changed a lot visually but the change from kikuyu to Bermuda grass has sped the whole track up (especially the greens) and the transformation has brought the scoring down considerably. This is a much harder test now which is why Valderrama appears to correlate very nicely now...

Bezuidenhout won here just weeks after winning at Valderrama, last year's winner, Oosthuizen, finished fourth there on the LIV Golf Tour in July, and the 2022 renewal gave the link a boost too.

The runner-up, Adrian Otaegui, had won at Valderrama two months earlier and two others highlighted the connection.

Scott Jamieson, who led after rounds two and three two years ago, before a poor final round saw him finish 11^th, sat tied for second at the halfway stage of the 2017 Andalucía Masters before eventually finishing sixth and Laurie Canter, who finished third, had led the 2021 edition of the Andalucía Masters by three strokes after three rounds before finishing fourth.

That form alone is enough to demonstrate the link but there's plenty of other more obscure evidence to suggest the two venues correlate very nicely now.

The shock 2018 winner, David Lipsky, was fourth at Valderrama in 2021, Will Besseling, who was tied for third behind John Catlin at Valderrama in 2020, was also tied for third in this event in 2021, Justin Harding, who finished alongside Besseling was tied for seventh here in 2019, Connor Syme was eighth in Spain and 11^th here and finally, Johannes Veerman finished tied for 10^th at Valderrama and tied seventh here in 2019.

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Is There an Identikit Winner?

Charl Schwartzel has won the title four times and he's finished runner-up five times (matched at 2.01/1 in-running last year) but he's far from the only player to perform consistently well here, so course form used to count for plenty.,

In addition to Schwartzel and the two-time winner, Pablo Martin, Ernie Els should have won the event back-to-back, Garth Mulroy finished third when defending in 2012 and Richard Sterne, the 2008 winner, finished fourth in 2009. A number of players have back-to-back top-ten finishes and numerous players have multiple placed efforts.

Spaniards seem to enjoy it here and although he now represents the UAE, had Otaegui had a better back-nine on Sunday two years ago (hit a low of 2.6213/8), five of the last 16 renewals would have been won by a Spaniard.

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Winner's Position and Price Pre-Round Four

2023 - Lois Oosthuizen - tied for the lead 2.0621/20
2022 - Ockie Strydom - tied for the lead 5.85/1
2021 - No event
2020 - Christiaan Bezuidenhout solo third, trailing by three 4.84/1
2019 - Pablo Larrazabal led by three strokes 1.845/6
2018 - David Lipsky trailed by a stroke 5.95/1
2017 - No event
2016 - Brandon Stone led by three strokes 2.1211/10
2015 - Charl Schwartzel led by five strokes 1.4840/85
2014 - Branden Grace led by a stroke 2.588/5

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In-Play Tactics

The last two winners have been off the pace at halfway and although inside the top six, Bezuidenhout was six strokes adrift after 36 holes.

Oosthuizen sat tied for 11^th and four off the pace last year and after sitting eighth and just three back after round one, the 2022 winner, Ockie Strydom, sat tied for 21^st and seven off the lead at halfway following a disappointing 70 in round two.

Bez shot 68 in round three to move up to third and the last two winners both shot 63s to be tied for the lead with a round to go.

Those last three results represent something of a sea change as prior to that, a fast start has been essential here.

As many as six of the last ten winners were inside the top four after day one, seven of the last ten winners have been in front at halfway and ten of the last 13 winners have led with a round to go.

Other than Bez, who sat third and three off the lead, the other two men that weren't in front after 54 holes, Pablo Martin in 2010 and Lipsky in 2018, both sat second, trailing by a stroke, so this is not usually place to play catch-up.

We often get quite a big draw bias here so keep an eye on the weather forecast, although at this early stage, the biggest issue is going to be the oppressive heat over the first two days.

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Market Leaders

The defending champion, Louis Oosthuizen, heads the market but he isn't in tremendous form.

On the two occasions that he's played on the DP World Tour over the last six months, at the Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, he's missed the cut, and he has recent form figures on the LIV Tour reading an ordinary 6-8-30-3-17.

Last year's victory, his first at the venue, came on his 15^th visit to Leopard Creek and it's perhaps worth remembering that the conditions were extremely soft.

The 2020 winner, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who was also third last year, was a little disappointing last weekend when finishing sixth behind Johannes Veerman.

He was bang there at halfway but back-to-back 72s weren't enough and the well-backed third favourite, Thriston Lawrence, makes more appeal, although his course form figures reading MC-MC-MC-49-MC-36-11, are off-putting.

Dean Burmester's course and current form numbers don't suggest he's ready to contend and Matt Cooper's fancy, the course specialist, Charl Schwartzel, looks like the best option towards the head of the market.

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Campillo chanced at 47/148.00

It's impossible to make a strong case for Jorge Campillo on his previous form at Leopard Creek given his course figures read MC-44-MC-41-MC-52 but he caught the eye on Sunday, when he shot 68 around the Gary Player Country Club in testing conditions to finish 13^th.

Danny Willett was the only man to better that round on Sunday and the Spaniard is clearly hitting his irons nicely given he's ranked 11^th, sixth and eighth for Strokes Gained: Tee-to Green in the three starts made since he lost a protracted playoff at the Andalucía Masters at the end of October.

As highlighted above, Spaniards have a decent record here so I thought Campillo was a fair price at 48.047/1 given he's no bigger than 33/134.00 on the High Street.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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