The Punter's Open Championship In-Play Blog: Sensational Scheffler up by four at Portrush

• Stats suggest Scheffler fairly priced with 18 to play

• Defending champ one of two fancied in the Winner W/O Scheffler market

• Hoey backed for Barracuda breakthrough

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10:10 - July 20, 2025

Scottie Scheffler may hold a commanding lead with 18 holes to play at the Open Championship (see last night's update below) but it's a very different story at the week's other PGA Tour event - the Barracuda Championship - where two points separate the top four.

As detailed in the Barracuda Championship preview, the tournament has used a Modified Stableford scoring system since 2012 so with two points being awarded for a single birdie, it's a very tight leaderboard.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 10:00.

Ryan Gerard +34 4.47/2
Rico Hoey +34 4.77/2
Erik van Rooyen +33 5.39/2
Tom Valliant +32 14.013/1
Vince Whaley +29 18.017/1
Hayden Springer +29 22.021/1
+28 and 42.041/1 bar

The market narrowly considers Ryan Gerard as the man to beat but he's been here before and failed.

Gerard held a four point lead at halfway two years ago and he was tied at the top with 18 to play but he finished fifth after scoring just three points on Saturday and three on Sunday.

It's been a different story this year as he's come from slightly off the pace in round three, finishing with a birdie at 16 and a fabulous flop shot birdie at the 18^th to tie the lead yesterday.  

"Gerard goes Drain-o!"

Ryan Gerard finishes with two birdies in his last three to hold the lead @CudaChamp. pic.twitter.com/381rmmGAW5

-- PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 20, 2025

He won the BMW Charity Pro-Am on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, so he may well be better equipped to convert this time around but at the prices on offer, I just prefer the chances of Rico Hoey.

Hoey also won on the Korn Ferry Tour, in 2023, and he lost in a playoff at the ISCO Championship on the PGA Tour this time last year.

It's a competitive leaderboard and the 2021 winner, Erik van Rooyen, is an obvious candidate with 18 to play but we can't rule out an off the pace winner either.

Nick Dunlop trailed by nine points at this stage before taking the title and he was trading at 46.045/1 with just 18 to play.

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22:20 - July 19, 2025

Scottie Scheffler unexpectedly missed a short birdie putt at the par five second at the Open Championship in round three today, just moments after his playing partner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, had chipped in for eagle to draw alongside him on -10, and a number of players, including home hero, Rory McIlroy, made a move from off the pace, but after six pars in-a-row, the world number one changed the complexion of the day with this brilliant eagle three at the seventh.

Biding his time.

After six pars, Scottie has an eagle in round three. pic.twitter.com/y8JK4KwhjX

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2025

Birdies at eight and 16 were his only other deviations from par in round three but he scrambled magnificently when he needed to and his up-and-down for par from an impossible position on 11 had to be seen to be believed.

Fitzpatrick's challenge fizzled out on the back nine and Haotong Li, who shot a two-under-par 69, despite a dropped shot at the last, was the only player within four of Scheffler's halfway lead to break par.

With just a round to go, Scheffler ranks first for both Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Putting and he's going to be tough to beat.

Here's the 54-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 22:15.

Scottie Scheffler -14 1.222/9
Haotong Li -10 26.025/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -9 27.026/1
Rory McIlroy -8 23.022/1
Tyrrell Hatton -8 50.049/1
Chris Gotterup -8 85.084/1
Harris English -8 90.089/1
Xander Schauffele -7 90.089/1
-6 and 280.0279/1 bar

If Rory, who plays in the penultimate two-ball in round four, can start like he did in round three (birdied three of the first four holes), the crowd will erupt and that could affect the frontrunning world number one. And winning the Open Championship is a huge deal, so it's not inconceivable that Scheffler shows some tension but all the stats suggest he's not too short in the outright market, even at just 1.222/9.

Scheffler has converted each of his last ten clear 54-hole leads and the last ten men to lead a PGA Tour event by four strokes all went on to win.

Having backed the leader before the off at 7.26/1, I've layed enough back at long odds-on to ensure a profitable week's work but I suspect I'll regret doing so. He's playing magnificently and his course management is immaculate.

Rory McIlroy is the favourite in the Winner W/O Scottie Scheffler market, but I like a couple of Americans at double-figure prices.

With rounds of 71, 69 and 66, the defending champion, Xander Schauffele, is improving as the week goes on and last week's Scottish Open winner, Chris Gotterup, who sits tied fourth, is playing the best golf of his career.

Gotterup sat tied for 45^th after a 72 on day one but that slow start was completely understandable after last week's win, and he could sign the week off nicely tomorrow after rounds of 65 and 68 in rounds two and three.

I don't often play the two and three-ball markets but given how nicely he's playing, Gotterup to beat Harris English at around 11/82.38 may be worth a small wager.

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10:30 - July 19, 2025

On a more benign second day, the average score at the 153^rd Open Championship was 71.41 - 1.63 shots less than the day one average of 73.04, when nobody could better a four-under-par 67.

As many as nine players shot 66 or less on day two but one of them, Kevin Yu, who had shot 79 on Thursday, still missed the cut!

Bryson DeChambeau, who had looked lost in the tricky conditions on day one, shot 65, as did last week's Scottish Open winner, Chris Gotterup, and the 2023 Open Champion, Brian Harman.

Having started the day tied for 10^th and trailing by two, Harman's 65 was the best round posted on Thursday morning and it saw him take the clubhouse lead on -8.

When the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, began his second round late on Friday afternoon he was trailing Harman by five, but he soon went about cutting the deficit with birdies at one, five, six and seven.

The wind had died down as forecasted and after birdies at 16 and 17 for the second day in-a-row, Scheffler posted a fabulous seven-under-par 64 to lead at halfway on 10-under-par.

Another late starter on Friday afternoon, Matt Fitzpatrick, was the first man to double-digits under-par when he birdied four holes in-a-row after the turn, but a bogey at 14 stopped his charge and after a missed birdie putt from just three feet at 17, the Englishman finished the day with this brilliant par save from 23 feet.

Giving it everything until the end.

Fitzpatrick saves par to remain at nine-under going into the weekend. pic.twitter.com/xA7vcyLcBH

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2025

Although the PM-AM side of the draw averaged 1.2 strokes less than those drawn AM-PM over the first two days, the wind dropped off completely to favour the very late starters on Friday and Harman is actually the only man on the leaderboard within four strokes of the lead that began the tournament on Thursday afternoon.

Here's the latest state of play with prices to back at 10:20.

Scottie Scheffler -10 1.814/5
Matthew Fitzpatric -9 6.411/2
Brian Harman -8 15.529/2
Haotong Li -8 26.025/1
Tyrrell Hatton -5 29.028/1
Robert Macintyre -5 32.031/1
Chris Gotterup -5 70.069/1
Harris English -5 70.069/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -5 80.079/1
Nicolai Hojgaard -4 130.0129/1
Tony Finau -4 180.0179/1
Rory McIlroy -3 32.031/1
-3 and 160.0159/1 bar

Links specialists, Tyrrell Hatton and Robert Macintyre, are more than capable of going low today and bridging the gap between themselves and the front four and although seven behind the best player on the planet, the home hero, Rory McIlroy, won't have given up just yet but the stats suggest we probably can't look beyond the front four at this stage.

Xander Schauffele trailed the hallway pacesetter, Shane Lowry, by six at Troon last year and he was a 12/113.00 chance with two rounds to play and the 2018 winner, Francesco Molinari, was trading at a triple-figure price when six off the lead in a tie for 38^th but the 2018 venue, Carnoustie, has a habit of producing an off the pace winner and most Open winners are much closer to the pace. In fact, six of the last eight winners sat first or second at halfway.

Both the previous winners at Portrush, Max Faulkner in 1951 and Lowry in 2019, were in front at this stage and trading at odds-on, the leader, Scheffler, is clearly the man to beat, although his record when leading at halfway is far from sensational.

Since 2019, Scheffler has led or been tied for the lead 16 times on the PGA Tour and he's gone on to win on six occasions.

A stunning round.

Scottie Scheffler is the clubhouse leader going into the weekend. pic.twitter.com/f33PdsVDmG

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2025

He's only held a clear advantage six times previously and he went on to win three times but on the three occasions that he led by a solitary stroke, as he does here, he's been beaten - finishing fifth at the Byron Nelson in 2023 and the Sentry in 2024 and second at the Houston Open in March.

That will give the layers some hope, and it may explain why he's drifted fractionally between last night and this morning but having backed him before the off at 6/17.00, I'm in no rush to lay him back just yet.

Having picked out Fitzpatrick as the man I was most interested in backing on Thursday night, I'm a bit frustrated that I haven't got him onside, and it's irritating to see last week's Find Me a 100 Winner pick in the Scottish Open, Brain Harman, back in-contention but he's the value play at halfway.

It would be fabulous to see a first English Open winner since Nick Faldo claimed his third Claret Jug 33 years ago but at more than 14/115.00, the 2023 winner, Harman, is simply too big to ignore.

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06:20 - July 18, 2025

The AM-PM split is now known on day one of the Open Championship and I'm quite surprised to see such a disparity in the scores.

As highlighted below, the afternoon starters averaged 72.4 compared to the 73.68 in the morning and that's a difference of 1.28 strokes.

73.04 = R1 scoring → @TheOpen

73.68 = Games 1-26
72.40 = Games 27-52

All threesomes went off No. 1 in 11-minute increments with no break for a traditional early-late draw. (NOTE: There was a 16-minute increment in the middle of both halves -- after Games 13 and 39.)

-- Rob Bolton (@RobBoltonGolf) July 17, 2025

The forecast has altered very slightly, suggesting today should be slightly calmer than yesterday, but it still appears that the late afternoon starters are going to play in the calmest weather.

With that in mind, Scottie Scheffler, who tees off at 15:10, is going to play at the optimum time today, and so too is the 2019 winner, Shane Lowry, who I've backed this morning at 42.041/1.

I was pondering backing another of Friday's late starters last night, the co-leader, Matt Fitzpatrick, but having slept on it, although I'm happy to hang on and see how today pans out, I can't resist a very small play on Lowry at 42.041/1.

Lowry only ranked 79^th for Putting Average yesterday so there's room for a bit of improvement there and in the kinder afternoon conditions, he may well post a much better score than yesterday morning's one-under-par 70.

In addition to winning here by as many as six strokes six years ago, Lowry also traded at as short as 2.486/4 last year at Troon when he led by three on Saturday and he's being slightly understimated by the market after round one.

I'll be back tomorrow morning with a detailed look at the state of play at halfway but given the ridiculously competitive and tight early leaderboard, Lowry is the only one I want to take a tiny chance on in-running at this stage.

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22:00 - July 17, 2025

There are one or two stragglers yet to finish their opening rounds at the 153^rd edition of the Open Championship but none of them are going to threaten the five men tied at the top on four-under-par.

There was a period in the early afternoon when it looked like the wind was dying and the scoring was improving but the back nine is around a stroke harder than the front and once the wind picked up again, the birdies stopped dropping.

Afternoon starters, Rory McIlroy, Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton all got to -3 but Hatton was the only one of the three to stay there.

Having been matched at as low as 5.59/2, McIlroy drifted all the way out to 16.531/2 but after an excellent par save at 15 and this birdie at 17, he's back into a single-figure price after he posted a one-under-par 70.

Rory escapes trouble on 17. He takes a birdie heading onto 18. pic.twitter.com/QmplsgkTl3

-- The Open (@TheOpen) July 17, 2025

Harris English and Christiaan Bezuidenhout teed it up in the afternoon but the other three tied at the top, Haotong Li, Matt Fitzpatrick and Jacob Skov Olesen, all teed off in the morning and Tyrrell Hatton is the only other afternoon starter within two of the lead.

As highlighted in the In-Play Tactics section of the preview, Mark O'Meara, who trailed by seven after round one back in 1998, is the only winner in the last 30 years not to be within five strokes of the lead after the opening round in an Open Championship.

A fast start is usually vital and only three of the last 20 Open winners have been outside the top 10 after round one. That's not great news for Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm who sit tied for 20^th but only three off the lead.

This is only the third time the Open has been staged at Portrush, so we have very little to go on but both venue winners, Max Faulkner in 1951, and Shane Lowry in 2019, started well.

Faulkner sat tied for fifth and just two off the lead after round one and Lowry sat solo second and just one back after a four-under-par 67.

Both men built on their fast starts nicely. Faulkner was clear by two at halfway and six in front with a round to go and Lowry was tied at the top at the midway point and four clear with 18 to play.

Looking back to 2019, the first five home were all inside the top three and ties and no more than two off the lead after round one so it really doesn't look like we can't look too far down the leaderboard.

Haotong Li and one of my picks, Justin Rose, were the only two in the field not to record a bogey in round one and although he only shot two-under, Rose was arguably the most impressive performer on a tricky first day, but he may just get hampered by the draw...

I'm always wary of the weather forecasts at the Open Championship but at the time of writing, it looks like the wind will drop tomorrow afternoon and that's great news for the 5/23.50 favourite, Scheffler, who posted -3 despite missing far too many fairways.

Scottie Scheffler's 68 ties the lowest score by a player who hit 3 or fewer fairways in an Open Championship round the last 25 years.

-- Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) July 17, 2025

I'm very tempted to back Fitzpatrick at 12/113.00 this evening but if Rory and Hatton play well in the morning, and they may well do given the forecast is far from awful, the Sheffielder will drift before he tees off at 14:26 so having backed Scheffler before the off at 6/17.00, who's now trading at around 5/23.50, I'm going to sit on my hands for now and see how tomorrow develops. 

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Open Championship Pre-Event Picks:
Scottie Scheffler @ 7.26/1
Xander Schauffele @ 32.031/1
Justin Rose @ 75.074/1
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 180.0179/1
Daniel Brown each-way @ 300/1301.00
Kristoffer Reitan @ 600.0599/1

In-Play Picks:
Shane Lowry @ 42.041/1
Brian Harman @ 16.015/1

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