Open Championship 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 150/1

Open Championship weather forecast for Thursday

It's a dry, sunny week at Royal Birkdale in Southport and Thursday looks the warmest day with temperatures touching 80 degrees in the afternoon.

Wind speeds are down at just 4-5mph for the early starters while it could pick up to 11-12mph in the afternoon. For links golf, that's very calm.

In the last five years, 11 players have had a piece of the first-round lead. Seven of those were morning starters so history and weather suggest the morning wave could have a slight edge.

Open weather forecasts can flip quickly though so I'll have two morning starters but also leave room for a player with an afternoon tee-time.

First Round Leader Bet 1: Joe Dean @ 150/1151.00

Let's begin by throwing a dart at Joe Dean, the man who came through the Last-Chance Qualifier on Monday.

That took place at Birkdale, his round of 68 against 11 rivals securing his place in this week's field.

As well as having that very recent form guide, Dean has some useful Open history too.

The Englishman made the cut at Birkdale in 2017 and in his only other Open appearance he was fourth after day one at Troon in 2024.

Finally, in his last three DP World Tour starts, the 32-year-old from Sheffield was second after day one of the KLM Open and fifth following the opening round at the BMW International Open in Germany.

He finished third and ninth, respectively, so is clearly in good nick.

Dean, who is getting married next week (his fiance Emily is his caddie), tees off at 07:08 alongside former Open winner Henrik Stenson and Max Homa.

What a feelgood day one story this would be!

First Round Leader Bet 2: Brian Harman @ 66/167.00

Brian Harman will surely have good vibes this week having won the 2023 Open by six shots along the coast at Royal Liverpool.

He was fourth after the first day that week but it isn't his only fast start in an Open.

The left-hander was second after round one at Royal St George's in 2021 and 10th through 18 holes at Royal Portrush last year.

Harman now has four top 20s in the last five Opens which makes him a real specialist in this event.

In the last major to be played, June's US Open, he was also in the top 10 after day one and 36th at last week's Scottish Open was hopefully a good links tune-up.

Harman, who was also seventh after R1 at Colonial five starts ago, has a mid-morning tee-time of 10:20.

First Round Leader Bet 3: Brooks Koepka @ 66/167.00

For my afternoon starter, I'll try Brooks Koepka who shared the first-round lead at Birkdale in 2017 after starting out with a 65.

The American has also finished day one in third place at Hoylake and Portrush while he was 11th after 18 holes at Troon in 2024.

We can combine that with some impressive starts in recent weeks on the PGA Tour.

In his last four events, the five-time major winner was FRL at the Canadian Open, second after the opening lap at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and sixth on Thursday's leaderboard at the Scottish Open before he had a poor Friday and missed the cut.

But that gives us a better price here and he's worth a spin at 66s from his 14:53 tee-time. He plays with 2019 Open hero Shane Lowry and US PGA winner Aaron Rai so that group will attract big crowds and give Koepka the majors buzz he loves.

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